Vietnam-US Trade in the Trump Era 2.0: Turning Danger into Opportunity

Big question

For someone who has declared “tariffs are my favorite thing,” Mr. Trump has warned that he will gradually impose import taxes of 10-20% on many countries and regions, even up to 60% on China, after taking office.

In fact, Trump's 1.0 administration has imposed tariffs on a number of countries as part of his 2016 campaign pledge.

“Returning to the White House this time, Mr. Trump will fulfill those commitments, but to what extent is another story.

This will affect many, if not most, countries in the world. world have trade, economic and commercial relations with the US, especially countries with large trade surpluses with the US, of which Vietnam is one," said Mr. Nguyen Quoc Cuong - former Deputy Minister. Foreign Office, former Vietnamese ambassador to the US, commented at the seminar “US presidential election results and their impact on Vietnam” of Youth Online.

The trade surplus between Vietnam and the US is growing, and trade is identified as one of the pillars in bilateral relations.

Mr. Cuong cited data: In 2022 and 2023, Vietnam-US trade will be about 130 billion USD, of which the US will export 10 billion USD to Vietnam, and Vietnam will export about 120 billion USD to the US.

“So the trade surplus is 110 billion USD, which is very large for the US,” said Mr. Cuong.

In fact, during Trump's first term, Vietnam was almost labeled a currency manipulator and put on the currency manipulation watch list, but was removed from the list under President Joe Biden.

“Whether Vietnam will be put back on the watch list or not? Or whether the US will put pressure with tariffs of 10% or 20% or even higher to balance the trade balance is still a big question,” Mr. Cuong raised the issue.

Vietnam needs to be cautious

Imposing tariffs on countries, including China, could also create a shift in production to Vietnam, but that could be a risk that could damage Vietnam-US economic and trade relations.

According to Mr. Cuong, Vietnamese businesses should not take advantage of the possibility of the US imposing tariffs on Chinese goods to become a transit point for China or another country to the US by labeling "made in Vietnam", because the immediate benefits are very little but the consequences are very large and long-lasting.

This warning comes from the fact that during Mr. Trump's first term, the US closely monitored this phenomenon and issued warnings and suggestions to Vietnam.

Sharing more, Ambassador Bui The Giang - former head of the Western Europe - North America Department, Central Party Foreign Affairs Commission - said that Vietnam, including businesses, should prepare mentally for two things: taxes and currency manipulation, because these two issues are always present in Mr. Trump's thinking.

“I don't want to be a funny optimist, but I want to look at that difficult problem in the way that many people have said, which is to turn danger into opportunity.

We must be proactive in policy and strategy to make adjustments. Let's consider it a challenge for us to grow and rise, not just see it to deal with the US," Mr. Giang expressed his thoughts.