The market has lost liquidity for many consecutive months, foreign investors have continuously sold net, the index is likely to decrease more sharply. At this time, which industry stocks should be invested in to have positive signals?
The market has lost liquidity for many consecutive months, foreign investors have continuously sold net, the index is likely to decrease more sharply. At this time, which industry stocks should be invested in to have positive signals?
Unstable positive scenario of stocks in November
The negative developments are continuing on the board as well as in the forecasts of stock analysis groups.
KB Securities Vietnam (KBSV) believes that, in terms of valuation, the current P/E of VN-Index is about 14.8 times (excluding extraordinary profits of enterprises). This valuation is equal to the 2-year average of 15x. Looking at the medium and long-term picture, low interest rates continue to be a supporting factor for the recovery of domestic production, investment and consumption activities.
However, in the short term, there is still a risk that the market will react negatively to concerns about escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the impact of Trump's re-election, interbank interest rates, rising exchange rate pressure and declining consumption in China.
Therefore, KBSV believes that although internal fundamentals ( economic growth, domestic monetary policy) are still supporting the medium/long-term growth momentum; market fluctuations in November are affected by many unpredictable variables. Combined with the current P/E level at the 2-year average, VN-Index is likely to move sideways in November 2024 until there is more information that changes market expectations.
From a technical perspective, the main trend is still down in the short term, however, KBSV said that there is a 70% probability that the VN-Index will have a positive recovery reaction at around 1,230 (+/-10) points. The remaining 30% probability is that at deeper support zones around 1,200 (+/-10 points) the index will have a clear upward momentum.
Previously, Tien Phong Securities Corporation (TPS) also gave two scenarios for the market in November.
In the positive scenario with a probability of about 60%, VN-Index will surpass 1,300 points, starting a new uptrend. This scenario occurs when the market can successfully bottom out at the price range of 1,240 points, only then will VN-Index have enough momentum to pull the index past the 1,300 point threshold. In this scenario, VN-Index really needs explosive liquidity along with the points.
In the negative scenario with a probability of about 40%, VN-Index may decrease after losing the 1,240 point zone. The market will face difficulties and the support level of 1,240 points is not strong enough to support the market trend, then there is a high possibility that a downtrend will appear, bad scenarios will be opened and pull the VN-Index down to the 1,180 point area (corresponding to the old bottom of the index created in September 2024).
Although there are still many resistances, TPS said that November from 2011 to now has recorded 6 decreases and 7 increases. The special thing about November is that this is the month that creates the bottom after the sharp decline in October in 2023 and 2022. This is also the period when indicators such as RSI and MACD are at very low levels, opening up opportunities for recovery and creating good growth space for VN-Index.
At the end of October 2024, the market is recording a fluctuating trend around the price range of 1,240 - 1,300 points, creating a foundation and looking for momentum to overcome the resistance level of 1,300 points. Therefore, it is expected that history may repeat itself and November may be the month of VN-Index's increase, ending the accumulation trend and opening a new uptrend for the end of 2024 and early 2025.
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| VN-Index fell to 1,217 points after the trading session on November 18, 2024. |
Which industry groups have room for positive growth?
KBSV believes that this is an opportunity to disburse during the adjustment period for the group of strategic stocks. The short-term market adjustment will open up good disbursement opportunities for investors who do not have a position, or increase the proportion for investors who already hold.
On 3 notable investment topics, KBSV pointed out the industry groups with opportunities in the rest of the year, including the topic of Demand recovery will take place in the banking and retail groups; the topic of Market Upgrading will help the securities group benefit and the topic of La Nina will positively affect the hydropower business group. There is still room for positive growth for the above stock groups.
Meanwhile, TPS recommends paying attention to two industry groups: retail and livestock during this period.
As for the livestock industry, pork output and live hog prices have both grown well in recent times. It is expected that live hog prices will continue to increase in late 2024 and early 2025 due to increased demand for pork during the Tet holiday. Surveying the business results of large livestock enterprises, business results were recorded positively in the third quarter of 2024 thanks to good control of the epidemic as well as storm No. 3, which mostly affected small-scale livestock households, TPS said.
Previously, SSI Securities Company recommended the opportunity to buy potential stocks at reasonable prices to build a long-term investment portfolio. SSI believes that investors should focus on companies with strong and sustainable profit growth, as this is expected to be the main factor driving stock prices in 2024 and 2025.
Textiles, seafood (pangasius), ports & shipping are sectors that can benefit from the shift in supply chains and new US trade policies. These are areas worth considering adding to the portfolio for the coming period.
At the same time, investors should also diversify their portfolios to limit the impact of unpredictable fluctuations. Along with policy fluctuations from the US, domestic interest rates and exchange rate fluctuations are two macro factors that need to be closely monitored in the risk management process, SSI warned.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/tim-co-hoi-trong-chung-khoan-thoi-kho-d230342.html
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