From recovery to breakthrough: Vietnam's economy stands at a new threshold.

A growth target of 10% or more in 2026 is a very ambitious goal, but not impossible, if Vietnam correctly identifies and effectively activates key growth drivers.

Editor's note:
2026 is expected to be a year of rapid economic growth, with a target of 10% or more – a challenging milestone but one that also opens up opportunities to reposition Vietnam in the region. To realize this goal, the issue lies not only in the numbers, but also in identifying the right drivers, implementing decisive institutional reforms, and effectively activating key growth engines.

VietNamNet is launching a series of articles titled "Realizing Double-Digit Growth Targets" to deeply analyze the potential, challenges, and necessary conditions for transforming growth aspirations into concrete actions. The series will focus on clarifying the roles of public investment, the private sector, manufacturing, domestic consumption, digital transformation, and innovation in creating a foundation for sustainable, high-quality, and long-term growth.

As we enter 2026, the story of Vietnam's economic growth is not just about speed, but about the foundation upon which that growth is based. What are the "driving forces" that will propel Vietnam to its goals? VietNamNet reporters had a discussion with Dr. Le Ba Chi Nhan, an economic expert, on this issue.

Dr. Le Ba Chi Nhan - economic expert.

PV: Sir, as 2025 draws to a close, many experts consider it a special year, encompassing both difficulties and challenges, as well as internal strength, determination, and efforts to turn the situation around. So, what is your assessment of the most remarkable aspects of the Vietnamese economy in 2025?

Dr. Le Ba Chi Nhan: From the perspective of an economic expert, 2025 can be considered a turning point, as the Vietnamese economy must operate in a "two-way" state, simultaneously facing external pressures and clearly demonstrating its internal strength and adaptability.

First and foremost, the most remarkable aspect of 2025 is the resilience of the economy in the face of a volatile international environment. The global economy over the past year has been impacted by geopolitical tensions, protectionist trade trends, and uneven regional recovery. In this context, Vietnam's ability to maintain relatively high growth rates, control inflation, and stabilize macroeconomic balances demonstrates that the economy has achieved structural stability, rather than being overly dependent on cyclical factors. Many international experts believe Vietnam is gradually forming a sufficiently strong "economic buffer zone" to absorb external shocks.

The year 2025 shows a clear shift in the growth model. While in the past, Vietnam mainly relied on low-cost labor and export processing, now high-tech industries, manufacturing, and the digital economy are becoming more important drivers of growth.

Some economic researchers believe that Vietnam is entering a repositioning phase within the global value chain, not only as a manufacturing destination but also gradually participating more deeply in high value-added stages. This is a positive sign, as the quality of growth is tending to improve, rather than focusing solely on scale.

2025 also clearly revealed the inherent bottlenecks in the economy. Institutional limitations, administrative procedures, labor productivity, and the quality of human resources remain major obstacles to long-term growth targets. Some argue that, without strong institutional reforms, Vietnam could fall into a state of "rapid but unsustainable growth." Furthermore, the business sector, especially small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), continues to face many difficulties in accessing capital, markets, and technology, indicating that the economy still needs further internal reform initiatives.

Furthermore, 2025 also clearly reflects the extent to which the Vietnamese economy is dependent on external fluctuations, especially international trade and global supply chains. This necessitates market diversification, enhanced production self-sufficiency, and the development of domestic supporting industries.

From a long-term perspective, 2025 is not only a year of positive growth but also a period of testing and refining the governance capacity and resilience of the economy. Many independent economic experts also believe that this period signifies a transition from a growth model based on cost advantages to one based on innovation, human resource quality, and national competitiveness. If Vietnam effectively utilizes this transitional period, it can enter a new development cycle with a more solid foundation and a higher economic position in the region.

According to experts, 2026 will be the year when policies begin to take effect in the economy, creating new and more sustainable growth opportunities. Photo: Nguyen Hue

PV: Also in 2025, many strategic institutions and policies, including key resolutions of the Politburo, were finalized. How will these decisions create momentum for the economy, especially in 2026, sir?

Dr. Le Ba Chi Nhan: The most noteworthy aspect of 2025 lies not only in the economic achievements, but also in the completion of a series of key strategic institutions and policies, creating a "framework" for growth in the medium and long term, especially from 2026 onwards.

First and foremost, the important resolutions of the Politburo issued in 2025 signify a reunification of strategic development thinking. Instead of focusing solely on short-term growth targets, these decisions emphasize the quality of growth, the self-reliance of the economy, and the need for innovation in the development model. Many experts have noted that this represents a shift from "reactive governance" to "directed governance," meaning the State proactively designs the development space, rather than merely addressing emerging issues.

The most significant impact of these policy decisions on 2026 lies in removing structural bottlenecks. Resolutions on perfecting market economic institutions, developing science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and green transformation will lay the foundation for a more substantive improvement in the investment and business environment.

When institutions are reformed comprehensively, the compliance costs for businesses will decrease, market confidence will be strengthened, thereby reactivating private investment flows – a key factor for sustainable growth in the coming period.

Strategic policies enacted in 2025 will help reposition the roles of economic sectors in 2026. The private sector will be more clearly defined as a key driver of growth; the state sector will focus on key, leading sectors; while the FDI sector will be oriented towards closer integration with domestic businesses.

Accordingly, if these directions are implemented consistently, 2026 could see a stronger diffusion of growth, instead of the "localized growth" seen in the past.

Furthermore, the key resolutions also create new impetus from the supply side, through the development of high-quality human resources, science and technology, and innovation. This is considered a decisive factor for Vietnam to overcome the limitations of the labor- and capital-based growth model, which is gradually showing signs of declining efficiency. 2026 will be the time when these policies begin to take effect in the economy, creating new, more sustainable growth opportunities.

The strategic decisions finalized in 2025 not only provide direction but also serve as an "institutional springboard" for the next phase of development. With decisive and coordinated implementation, 2026 could become a pivotal year, transitioning from recovery and stability to growth based on reform, innovation, and enhanced national competitiveness. This is the greatest expectation that the economic expert community places on the key resolutions that have been issued.

PV: At the National Conference summarizing the work of the Finance sector in 2025 and implementing tasks for 2026, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized that the double-digit growth target for 2026 is a "high mountain" that needs to be conquered. So, in your opinion, what are the "driving forces" that will enable Vietnam to reach this goal?

Dr. Le Ba Chi Nhan: In my opinion, the target of 10% or more growth in 2026 is a very ambitious goal, but not impossible, if Vietnam correctly identifies and effectively activates key growth drivers. The core issue lies not in a single driver but in the synergy of policies and the ability to organize and implement them.

Firstly, public investment and strategic infrastructure development continue to be the most important driving forces. With limited room for monetary policy stimulus, public investment – ​​especially key transportation projects, digital infrastructure, energy, and logistics – will act as a "capital catalyst," attracting private investment and FDI, and creating a rapid spillover effect for growth.

Secondly, the manufacturing and processing sector needs to be strongly restored and upgraded. This remains the pillar of growth, exports, and employment. To achieve high growth, Vietnam not only needs to recover orders but also shift to higher value-added segments, participate more deeply in global supply chains, especially in sectors such as electronics, high technology, supporting industries, and renewable energy.

Third, the domestic private sector must truly become the central driving force. Double-digit growth requires the impetus from millions of businesses and households. This depends heavily on institutional reforms, reductions in compliance costs, improvements in the investment and business environment, and the unlocking of capital flows to the private sector, especially small and medium-sized enterprises.

Fourth, domestic consumption and high-quality services are increasingly important drivers of growth. With a large population and a rapidly growing middle class, the domestic market is a sustainable source of growth. Tourism, trade, logistics, finance and banking, the digital economy, and the green economy, if properly exploited, will create significant additional growth potential.

Fifth, the quality of macroeconomic management and market confidence play a crucial role. The 10% target can only be achieved if fiscal, monetary, and investment policies are coordinated effectively; while maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and upholding the confidence of domestic and foreign investors.

Therefore, to achieve a growth target of 10% or more in 2026, Vietnam needs a "leading combination" including: public investment, upgraded manufacturing, a breakthrough in the private sector, expanded consumption and services, along with flexible and decisive macroeconomic management.

This is not just a matter of speed, but also a test of the quality of growth and the reform capacity of the economy.

Thank you, sir!

Prime Minister: The double-digit growth target for 2026 is a 'high mountain' to conquer. The Prime Minister emphasized that the double-digit growth target for 2026 is a "high mountain" that needs to be conquered. To conquer it, we need high determination, great effort, decisive action, and thorough work...

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/tu-phuc-hoi-sang-but-pha-kinh-te-viet-nam-truc-nguong-cua-moi-2490550.html