2026 marks a significant milestone as the Vietnamese economy officially enters a new chapter of its five-year socio-economic development plan. This represents not only a change in time but also a qualitative transformation, where the guiding policies of the previous period begin to be implemented, creating a transparent yet highly competitive business environment. In this context, the concept of "selection" becomes central, reshaping the profile of businesses capable of survival and breakthrough. Market dynamics no longer leave room for unsustainable business models or those relying on policy loopholes; instead, the rise of genuine efficiency and risk management capabilities prevails.
New impulses are driving the process of macroeconomic structural transformation.
Looking back to 2025, it was a pivotal period when core legal frameworks were strengthened. The bottlenecks in land, investment, and construction that had hampered capital flows for years were gradually resolved thanks to consistent government management.
Entering 2026, the growth potential is expanding with an ambitious GDP target of 10% as expected by the National Assembly . To achieve this figure, public investment continues to play a strategic role as a "trigger," with an expected increase of approximately 9.2%. However, the difference in this cycle lies in the fact that public investment is not only focused on traditional transportation infrastructure but also expands to digital infrastructure, renewable energy, and modern data centers, creating a new ecosystem for the private sector to thrive.
According to economic experts, the macroeconomic environment is gradually stabilizing internationally after major fluctuations. Global growth is projected at 2.9%, boosting confidence in import and export activities. The continued interest rate cuts by major central banks worldwide, particularly the US Federal Reserve (Fed), have helped ease exchange rate pressure in Vietnam. This allows the State Bank of Vietnam more room to manage monetary policy flexibly, focusing on meeting the liquidity needs of the economy. Foreign direct investment (FDI) is expected to continue flowing strongly into Vietnam, not only in traditional processing industries but also shifting to higher value-added sectors such as semiconductors and green technologies.
Mr. Vo Nguyen Vu Toan, an analyst from Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC), believes that the economic context of 2026 needs to be viewed from multiple perspectives. According to him, the connection between the global macroeconomic environment and Vietnam's internal transformation process will create a natural filter. Inflation is projected to remain stable at around 3.7% to 4%, thanks to the government's coordinated regulation of strategic commodities and the cooling of world oil prices around $60 to $65 per barrel. This stability is a crucial foundation, but it also requires businesses to optimize production costs to maintain profit margins in a market with little room for indiscriminate price increases.
On the other hand, the corporate bond market, after a period of strong consolidation, is gradually recovering in a more sustainable direction. The new legal framework has established transparent "rules of the game," requiring issuers to have genuine financial capacity and a high level of information transparency. This implicitly creates a filter, where only businesses with feasible projects and sound financial health can access medium and long-term capital from the market. This is an important step to reduce excessive dependence on bank credit, helping to make the financial structure of the economy more balanced and secure against external shocks.
Adaptation strategies and capital management challenges in the new context.
In the new economic cycle, deposit interest rates are projected to increase slightly by 50 to 100 basis points. This shift reflects the increased capital demand of the banking system to meet new capital adequacy standards and prepare for large disbursements. As input interest rates rise, lending rates are unlikely to remain extremely low as in the previous period, except for priority sectors supported by the government. This presents businesses with a significant challenge in managing cash flow. Those entities that use excessive financial leverage without stable operating cash flow will soon reveal fatal weaknesses during this screening process.
Sharing his views on this issue, Mr. Tran Anh Tuan, CEO of an electronics manufacturing group, said that businesses today cannot focus solely on revenue growth but must prioritize the quality of profits. He emphasized that in the period 2026-2030, the ability to adapt to green standards and digital transformation will be the decisive factor in determining a business's value. Without investing in technology to reduce operating costs and meet stringent environmental requirements from international markets, businesses will exclude themselves from the global supply chain, regardless of their current size.
From a state management perspective, in an interview with VTV Times reporters, a representative from the Ministry of Finance affirmed that fiscal policy in the coming period will continue to focus on selective support. Instead of widespread support packages, the Government will concentrate on unlocking resources through administrative reforms and creating incentive mechanisms for pioneering businesses in innovation. Completing the legal framework on taxation and customs, as implemented in 2025, will help reduce the burden of compliance costs, but also require businesses to enhance their self-awareness and transparency. The Ministry of Finance believes that a transparent administration is the best tool to support legitimate businesses and eliminate weak units that waste social resources.
The differentiation in the stock market in 2026 will become more pronounced than ever. Investors are no longer chasing rumors or hype about valuations. Instead, they focus on asset quality, management capabilities, and especially the responsiveness of corporate leadership to market changes. Sectors such as technology, energy infrastructure, and sustainable consumer goods are expected to lead the flow of capital. This is when the courage of business leaders will be tested: either embrace change to reach higher standards, or be left behind in the whirlwind of the new economic cycle.
The end of an old cycle and the beginning of a new one always comes with the pains of transition. However, this process of sifting through is necessary for the Vietnamese economy to move towards more sustainable and prosperous development. Businesses that overcome this stage will not only be "survivors," but will also be stronger entities, capable of competing fairly on the international stage, making a substantial contribution to the goal of making Vietnam a high-income developed country by the middle of this century.
Source: https://vtv.vn/tu-phuc-hoi-sang-tang-truong-chat-luong-phep-thu-ban-linh-doanh-nghiep-100260112113903331.htm
![[Photo] Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh presides over a meeting of the Steering Committee for the construction of the nuclear power plant.](https://vphoto.vietnam.vn/thumb/1200x675/vietnam/resource/IMAGE/2026/02/13/1770947038316_dsc-1534-jpg.webp)
Comment (0)