Ukraine is running out of counterattack options

Ukraine's counterattacks were stalled as severe weather approached and UAV attack tactics also faced many obstacles.

After more than two months of counter-offensives, Kiev has made only small advances around a few villages, while the Russian army is pushing north. The plan to train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighter jets is progressing slowly.

Ukraine’s failure to make a decisive victory on the battlefield has raised concerns that the conflict is reaching a dead end and that international support for Kiev could erode. Exhausted by conflict, Ukrainians are desperate for a resounding victory, and calls in Washington to cut aid are expected to grow louder as the 2024 US presidential election approaches.

A new US intelligence report predicts that the counteroffensive will not achieve its strategic goal of reaching the key Russian-controlled city of Melitopol in southeastern Ukraine this year. Melitopol, located more than 80 kilometers from the front line, is a key Russian command and logistics center and a point that could separate Moscow’s forces in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia from the Donbass region.

The assessment was made based on the battlefield situation when the Russian army demonstrated its proficiency in building multi-layered defense lines and had overwhelming air superiority.

Ukrainian soldiers fire at Russian forces near Bakhmut in April. Photo: Reuters

US officials said the Pentagon had repeatedly advised Ukraine to concentrate its forces on a single point in order to break through the Russian defenses. However, the Ukrainian military decided to switch to a strategy of dispersing its forces to advance in multiple areas and limit casualties, causing the counterattack to proceed very slowly.

Far from weakening, the Russian army is putting up fierce resistance and even advancing. In northeastern Ukraine, authorities in the city of Kupyansk, in Kharkiv Oblast, have had to evacuate scores of civilians as Moscow advances. The city is part of a large swath of territory that Kiev recaptured in September and October.

Last month, Ukrainian troops recaptured the village of Staromaiorske in Donetsk, raising hopes that they might break through and change the tempo of their offensive. But it took another three weeks for Ukraine to take control of the neighboring village of Urozhaynoye, and they are said to have suffered heavy losses.

The attacks also did not employ any new tactics. Reconnaissance units probed the Russian defenses for weak spots, opening the way for smaller units to move in with bomb squads.

An adviser to Ukraine's Defense Minister Yuriy Sak said the slow progress of mine clearance along the frontline was preventing Kiev from mobilizing most of its Western-trained reservists into combat.

"To deploy the reserve force, we need to make sure all routes are clear. We would rather go slower to ensure the lives of our soldiers," he said.

According to analysts, without advanced weapons to reinforce the frontline or the most combat-ready forces trained by the West being deployed, Kiev is unlikely to achieve a breakthrough.

“The question here is which side will wear out faster. We should not expect to achieve any major military objectives overnight,” noted Franz-Stefan Gady, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the Center for a New American Security.

According to him, Russia and Ukraine are in a phase of trying to erode each other's resources rather than making significant territorial advances.

Asked about the progress of the offensive, Western and Ukrainian officials have urged patience, describing it as moving more slowly than expected but moving toward success. However, the time available for Ukraine to launch a counteroffensive is limited. Last year, Ukrainian forces made little progress after recapturing the southern city of Kherson in early November due to harsh weather.

Adviser to the Ukrainian Defense Minister Yuriy Sak said that due to the slow progress of ground forces, Kiev is using attack UAVs to expand the range of its army's operations while waiting for weapons from the West and training of soldiers.

"We don't have F-16 fighters yet so we have to find ways to compensate and UAVs help to some extent to supplement our air capabilities," he added.

Gady said Ukraine has been attacking Russian logistics facilities far from the frontline for months, but so far their impact has not been reflected on the battlefield.

“The Russian position has deteriorated, but it is not so bad that you would think they are about to collapse,” he noted. Such a long-range offensive operation would only be considered successful if the opposing force were no longer able to mobilize reserves or perform other basic support functions such as resupply.

The situation of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Graphics: WP

Kiev has made few public claims of responsibility for attacks outside its borders, but Moscow has repeatedly accused Ukraine of carrying out a series of drone attacks on its territory. Several unnamed sources said Ukrainian intelligence was behind the attack on a major Russian port and a Russian tanker near Crimea.

However, analysts warn that while the UAV attacks may divert attention from the stalled ground offensive, they cause only minor damage and are unlikely to tip the balance of the conflict in Kiev's favor.

“Ukraine simply does not have the capacity to build enough UAVs and strike deep into Russian territory to erode Moscow’s will to fight,” said Bob Hamilton, a retired US Army colonel and fellow with the Eurasia Program at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, based in Pennsylvania.

Russia also has sophisticated methods at its disposal to counter Ukrainian drones, such as jamming equipment. The Kremlin claims to have thwarted most of Ukraine’s drone attacks in the past week. On August 19, the Russian Defense Ministry announced that it had shot down 20 Ukrainian drones targeting Crimea overnight.

Ukrainian soldiers test UAVs in Bakhmut in November 2022. Photo: Reuters

Analysts also assessed that the strategy of stepping up attacks inside Russian territory is difficult because Ukraine has to rely on domestically produced UAVs, instead of weapons provided by the West. The reason is that the allies have set a number of restrictions on Kiev in using NATO weapons to target Russian territory, due to Western concerns about the risk of direct conflict with Russia.

"Since the fighting began, one of the things that Ukraine's allies have been most concerned about is the possibility of an unintended escalation of the conflict," said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank.

Ukraine has asked the US for long-range ATACMS missiles, but the Biden administration has refused, citing limited supplies and concerns about a direct confrontation with Russia. US officials have repeatedly said they do not encourage Kiev to attack inside Russian territory.

If Ukraine increases its use of UAVs while the counteroffensive remains slow, “it will make the West worry about whether Kiev can continue to hold back,” she said.

Vu Hoang (According to Washington Post )

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