Why is it necessary to control the growth rate of real estate lending?

(NLĐO) - In 2026, commercial banks will not lend more than 13% of their real estate credit growth compared to the previous year.

The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has just issued a document guiding commercial banks on controlling credit growth in 2026, with a target of approximately 15% growth for the entire system.

Accordingly, the credit growth target for each commercial bank is calculated using the formula: bank rating score (according to Circular 52/2018/TT-NHNN, amended and supplemented, on a scale of approximately 1-5) multiplied by the general coefficient applied in 2026, which is 2.6% (lower than the 3.5% coefficient of 2024 and 2025). Therefore, if the rating score remains unchanged, the initial credit growth limit for banks will decrease by nearly 1 percentage point compared to the previous year.

For example, a bank with a 5-point rating would have a credit growth limit of approximately 13% (5 × 2.6% = 13%) compared to outstanding loans at the end of 2025.

Similar to previous years, the State Bank of Vietnam has set the entire credit growth target right from the beginning of 2026. The new point is the requirement for credit institutions to control the credit growth rate in the first three months of the year so that it does not exceed 25% of the annual target, in order to avoid premature credit overheating.

Specifically, the regulatory body also requires that the growth rate of real estate loan balances not exceed the overall credit growth rate of that bank compared to the end of 2025. This means that if a bank has a general credit growth limit of 13%, then its real estate loan balances can only increase by a maximum of 13% compared to the credit growth rate in this sector at the end of 2025.

For example, if the outstanding real estate loan balance at the end of 2025 is 100 billion VND, then in 2026 the maximum loan amount can only increase to 113 billion VND (13%, equivalent to an increase of 13 billion VND). Violations by banks may result in a reduction in their overall credit target.

Some financial experts believe this requirement aims to reduce risks to the banking system, especially as real estate loan balances have increased sharply (33% in 2023, 34% in 2024, and 31% by September 2025), leading to maturity mismatches, liquidity issues, and the risk of bad debts.

Also related to real estate credit, at a discussion on the Vietnamese and global economic outlook for 2026, organized by Standard Chartered Vietnam in Ho Chi Minh City on January 13th, Ms. Nguyen Thuy Hanh, the bank's General Director, stated that to control bad debt risks, the State Bank of Vietnam has a policy of encouraging banks to achieve consistent growth throughout the year, rather than concentrating the 15% growth in, for example, the first quarter. This is a new and very positive development.

Ms. Nguyen Thuy Hanh speaks about real estate lending in 2026. Clip: Lam Giang

At Standard Chartered Vietnam, the bank's operating approach does not restrict credit growth in any particular sector of the economy, but rather promotes growth across all sectors, especially those that are important to our clients.

Regarding real estate lending, banks have always paid closer attention to the potential risks of the real estate market, not just this year. However, in reality, credit growth in the real estate sector in 2025 is expected to be much higher than the previous year. So, how can we maintain economic growth and credit growth while still managing risks, especially those related to real estate?

Banks are encouraged to increase lending to residential real estate projects and social housing. Photo: Lam Giang

"Credit should be directed towards real estate projects that are crucial to the economy, ensuring quality and serving the real needs of the people. The focus should be on real estate projects in industrial zones, residential areas, and especially social housing. These are all important sectors. When banks prioritize capital for projects that meet the interests of the people and the economy, credit risk will be controlled at a reasonable level," – Ms. Nguyen Thuy Hanh commented.

By the end of 2025, credit growth by the banking system to the economy is projected to reach approximately 19.1% - the highest in many years. Of this, real estate loans account for a significant proportion, around 20-30% of total outstanding loans at some commercial banks.

Source: https://nld.com.vn/vi-sao-phai-kiem-soat-toc-do-tang-truong-cho-vay-bat-dong-san-196260113141905469.htm