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'Vietnam enters a decisive decade that will reshape Southeast Asia's economic hierarchy'

Experts believe Vietnam is entering a 'decisive decade' that could change the region's economic rankings; it could surpass Thailand to become ASEAN's third-largest economy by 2026 or 2027.

Báo Tuổi TrẻBáo Tuổi Trẻ19/01/2026


'Vietnam enters a decisive decade that will reshape Southeast Asia's economic hierarchy' - Image 1.

Ho Chi Minh City is developing into a leading urban and financial center in Southeast Asia - Photo: VNA

On January 19th, the media, experts, scholars, and international community continued to publish numerous articles offering positive assessments of Vietnam's economic growth rate in recent years.

According to the BBC (UK), Vietnam is the fastest-growing economy in Southeast Asia and a major export manufacturing hub, despite facing numerous challenges, including US tariff policies.

The US government is currently imposing a 20% retaliatory tariff on Vietnamese goods, down from the initially announced 46%. Despite this, official figures show that Vietnam's exports to the US last year still increased by over 28%, a record high.

According to the BBC, a stable political system and policies make Vietnam an attractive environment for foreign investment, especially as companies diversify their supply chains.

An article in the China Daily newspaper noted that Vietnam is emerging as a new economic powerhouse despite challenges related to tariffs. Expert Burkhard Schrage, acting Dean of Management at the RMIT Business School, assessed that "a growth rate of over 8% in 2025 is a landmark achievement" and that Vietnam is truly "a bright spot amidst a constantly changing world."

With the draft Political Report of the 14th National Congress for the first time taking science and technology, innovation, and digital transformation as the main drivers for the national growth strategy, expert Schrage expects Vietnam to make a decisive shift towards a new growth model that prioritizes quality, sustainability, and technological sovereignty rather than focusing solely on quantity.

Dr. Le Hong Hiep, a senior research fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS) Yusof Ishak in Singapore, noted that the main drivers of Vietnam's growth include increased exports and foreign direct investment, boosted infrastructure investment, and a diversification strategy aimed at promoting consumption and strengthening relations with traditional trading partners.

Dr. Le Hong Hiep believes that by 2026, Vietnam will clearly see the comprehensive impact of the new US tariff policy on exports as well as the entire economy. The government has been implementing policies to cope with this impact, including diversifying export markets and reducing dependence on the US market.

Looking ahead, Schrage believes Vietnam is entering a "decisive decade" that could reshape Southeast Asia's economic hierarchy, adding that the country is on track to surpass Thailand to become ASEAN's third-largest economy by 2026 or 2027.

He also expressed confidence that Vietnam would achieve its goal of becoming an upper-middle-income country by 2030.

Tuoitre.vn

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/viet-nam-buoc-vao-thap-ky-quyet-dinh-dinh-hinh-lai-thu-bac-kinh-te-dong-nam-a-20260119160337284.htm#content


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