Production accelerates, value chains are upgraded.
According to the January 2026 macroeconomic report by Rong Viet Securities Company (VDSC), the industrial landscape at the beginning of 2026 showed a strong recovery in both speed and industry structure. Specifically, the industrial production index (IIP) increased by 21.54% compared to the same period last year; the manufacturing sector alone increased by 23.6%. This is not only a statistically high increase but also reflects a real improvement in orders and operating capacity of businesses.
High-tech electronics factories in Vietnam – a sector attracting significant FDI. (Illustrative image)
The growth structure also reflects a concentration of activity in technology- and engineering-intensive industries. Specifically, mobile phone components increased by 92.7%; motor vehicles by 48.5%; and motorcycles by 54.3% compared to the same period last year. The nearly doubling of the electronic components group compared to the same period shows that Vietnam continues to play an important role in the regional electronics manufacturing chain, especially in the context of multinational corporations restructuring their supply chains.
Shinhan Securities Vietnam's macroeconomic report also indicates that the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached 52.5 points in January and has remained above 50 points for seven consecutive months. A PMI above 50 points signifies expanding manufacturing activity. Notably, both new orders and output increased, suggesting that the improvement stems not only from a weak base but also from actual demand.
In terms of trade, exports reached US$43.19 billion, a 29.7% increase compared to the same period last year. This figure, exceeding US$40 billion per month, places Vietnam among Asia's major exporting economies . However, imports increased even more sharply, reaching US$44.97 billion, a 49.2% increase year-on-year, resulting in a trade deficit of US$1.7 billion. The high import growth indicates a significant demand for components, semi-finished products, and technological equipment for production. This reflects the characteristics of a growth model based on export-oriented processing and manufacturing, but also raises questions about the proportion of domestic value added.
From an investment perspective, realized FDI capital in January reached US$1.68 billion, concentrated in the processing and manufacturing sector.ACB Securities (ACBS) believes that a stable macroeconomic environment and controlled inflation help Vietnam maintain its attractiveness to foreign investors. The continued inflow of FDI into manufacturing shows that Vietnam remains a priority destination in the strategy of diversifying global supply chains.
However, Yuanta Securities Vietnam (YSVN) argues that the spillover effect to domestic businesses is uneven. This implies that even with strong increases in production and exports, the value retained domestically remains limited if domestic businesses do not participate deeply in the component and core technology stages.
Overall, Vietnam has achieved a sufficiently large production scale to play a crucial role in the regional electronics and mechanical supply chain. However, the dependence on imported inputs and the low localization rate indicate that the endogenous technological foundation still needs strengthening. This will determine whether current industrial growth is merely expansion or a stepping stone towards becoming a high-tech manufacturing hub in the coming years.
Industries that benefit from "expanded factories"
According to macroeconomic reports from securities companies, Vietnam continues to maintain its role as a large-scale manufacturing hub in the region, even without significant upgrades in core technologies. The spillover effects on the stock market will be clearly evident in sectors that benefit from cyclical capital flows and production expansion.
Logistics and port operations are among the sectors that would benefit if Vietnam moved closer to Asia's high-tech manufacturing hub.
First, let's look at industrial real estate. VDSC recorded realized FDI of US$1.68 billion in the first month of the year, concentrated in processing and manufacturing. This indicates that the demand for factory expansion and production infrastructure remains strong. In the market, companies with large land reserves, complete infrastructure, and convenient locations such as KBC, BCM, IDC, and SZC are often considered direct beneficiaries when FDI flows accelerate. However, the outlook still depends on the progress of inter-regional infrastructure and the ability to expand land reserves.
Regarding the logistics and port sector, Shinhan Securities Vietnam reported that the PMI remained above 50 points and export orders increased, while exports reached US$43.19 billion in January. The large volume of trade provided the foundation for sustained high cargo throughput at ports. In the market, integrated port and logistics operators like GMD, HAH, or VSC typically benefit from expanding trade volumes. However, this group is significantly affected by global trade cycles.
The banking sector indirectly benefits from expanding manufacturing and FDI. ACBS assesses that a stable macroeconomic environment facilitates credit growth. As businesses increase investment and exports, the demand for medium- and long-term credit and trade finance increases. In the market, banks with a high proportion of loans to manufacturing and export businesses, such as VCB, BID, or TCB, are often monitored in this context. However, profitability still depends on interest rate management and asset quality.
In the construction materials and steel sector, public investment in 2026 exceeding VND 1,008,322.6 billion, along with the expansion of industrial parks, could support the demand for factory construction and infrastructure. Companies like HPG, HSG, and NKG are often mentioned when discussing public investment and accelerated production. However, this sector is highly cyclical and sensitive to fluctuations in raw material prices.
YSVN notes that the spillover effect to domestic businesses is uneven. This suggests that if Vietnam only focuses on large-scale assembly, the main beneficiaries will be industrial parks, logistics, banking, and construction materials. Conversely, if the localization rate is increased and participation in the supply chain is deeper, supporting industries and precision engineering businesses will have the potential to sustainably improve their profit margins.
Therefore, for investors, the "high-tech manufacturing hub" narrative needs to be clearly separated between growth in scale and growth in quality. This distinction will determine which sectors create long-term advantages instead of merely benefiting from short-term capital flow cycles.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/viet-nam-tien-gan-vai-role-trung-tam-san-xuat-cong-nghe-cao-cua-chau-a-20260213221323820.htm
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