Last week, the VN-Index experienced its third consecutive week of decline, closing down 4.02% at 1,755.49 points.
Notably, this trading week also saw a weakening of state-owned stocks. This left the VN-Index lacking support. Along with that, sectors such as securities and real estate continued their downward trend, with many stocks even breaking lows, indicating that short-term capital is still being withdrawn.
Predicting developments for next week, Mr. Nghiem Sy Tien – Investment Strategy Specialist at KBSV Securities – believes that although the VN-Index has lost the psychological support level of 1,800 points, he thinks the scenario of it falling as low as 1,600 points is too pessimistic and unlikely to happen given the stable macroeconomic environment.
The December 2025 bottom around 1,730-1,750 points will be a very strong technical resistance level, most likely the final shakeout to re-establish a new price level before entering the growth cycle of 2026.
According to him, for portfolios not subject to margin pressure, investors should prioritize holding stocks with strong fundamentals and bright profit prospects for 2026. Aggressive stop-loss orders should only be implemented for highly speculative stocks or those that have severely broken through technical price support levels.
" Instead of leaving the market, prepare cash to implement a 'panic buying' strategy at strong support levels, because history shows that irrational dips near Tet often open up opportunities for big profits right after the holiday ," Mr. Tien emphasized.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Le Duc Khanh – Director of Investment Capacity Development, VPS Securities Joint Stock Company, also believes that the VN-Index, after falling below the 1,800-point mark, is likely to correct to the support area of 1,725 – 1,730 – 1,750 points.
Mr. Khanh believes that at this point, there is still a possibility of rebound sessions – strong upward movements could also return, rather than continuous corrections like the downward sessions in the first week of February.
Next week, the VN-Index may return to the 1,700-point range. (Illustrative image).
" My personal view is that the VN-Index may only fall to a maximum of 1725-1730 points before recovering, but it's unlikely to reach 1600 points. The medium-term upward trend of the market is still being maintained ," Mr. Khanh expressed.
Mr. Khanh emphasized that investors in the current period need to pay attention to portfolio allocation, holding only 5 stocks or less, focusing on large-cap stocks and waiting for the market to rebound. In addition, he believes the medium-term upward trend of the VN-Index remains intact, and investors can consider investing in the medium and long term.
In the same view, experts at SHS Research also believe that the VN-Index is under pressure to correct to the 1,700-1,730 point range, corresponding to the average price range of the past 100-120 trading sessions.
This also represents the corresponding support zone along the trendline connecting the lowest price levels of November 2025 and December 2025. At the current price level, any positions should be considered short-term speculation and require careful assessment and risk management.
" In the current context, uncertainties have increased: Risks of bubbles have emerged in various asset classes: cryptocurrencies; gold, silver, and precious metals; AI bubbles; falling real estate prices; reduced credit growth, with deposit and lending interest rates trending upwards; volatile interbank short-term interest rates; and instability in the global financial market... Therefore, short-term risk management will be prioritized. Investors should reassess their portfolios, reduce speculative weightings, manage risks, and preserve a portion of profits if any ," an expert from SHS Research assessed.
VNDirect Securities' analysis team also predicts that the VN-Index is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the short term as profit-taking increases and capital flows show signs of weakening in the sessions leading up to the Tet holiday.
Accordingly, the index may retreat to test the support zone around 1,766 points (a fluctuation of 10 points) to absorb the remaining low-priced supply, before gradually recovering and heading back towards the resistance zone of 1,940 points after the Lunar New Year.
During this period, VNDirect recommends that investors proactively restructure their portfolios, prioritizing companies with strong fundamentals and those benefiting from policy changes to anticipate a new growth cycle. VNDirect experts also suggest focusing on risk management, controlling margin at safe levels, and restructuring underperforming positions.
Ms. Nguyen Thi My Lien, Head of Analysis Department at Phu Hung Securities Joint Stock Company, also commented that the VN-Index breaking the psychological 1,800-point mark, or more accurately, falling below the 50-day moving average, is not a very positive technical signal, but it is not necessarily negative.
The downward pressure stems not only from profit-taking sentiment but also from the continued sharp rise in interbank interest rates this week, raising concerns about liquidity conditions.
However, stock prices have now corrected to a crucial medium-term support zone. This is a significant area for testing the trend, where demand may return if macroeconomic pressures do not worsen further. The global stock market has also just recovered from a correction, which could provide further catalysts.
Therefore, she believes that the appropriate scenario at this stage is for the market to fluctuate, testing supply and demand around the support zone, possibly with intermittent technical rebounds, before a clearer trend forms.
In this context, Ms. Lien believes that investors should not react with a stop-loss mentality at all costs, but they should also not passively hold onto their portfolios.
The appropriate approach is to selectively restructure the portfolio: reduce holdings in stocks with weak price structures, high leverage, or heavy reliance on short-term cash flow; while prioritizing holding or shifting to stocks with strong fundamentals, less financial pressure, and currently being tested at key support levels.
At this stage, maintaining discipline, taking things slowly, and prioritizing risk management will be more effective than emotional decisions like panic selling or trying to buy at the bottom too early.
Chau Anh
Source: https://vtcnews.vn/vn-index-tuan-toi-co-the-giam-ve-vung-gia-1-700-diem-ar1002169.html
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