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| Real estate lending is being more tightly controlled. |
Real estate businesses are complaining bitterly about the difficulty in obtaining loans.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Hiep, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Global Real Estate Joint Stock Company and Chairman of the Vietnam Association of Construction Contractors (VACC), stated that major banks (including the Big 4) are refusing to grant credit to new projects, or are only very selective about projects in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. With funding bottlenecks preventing businesses from implementing projects, 2026 is predicted to be an extremely turbulent year for the real estate market.
Many other businesses also reported that the difficulty in accessing credit is not only affecting high-end commercial housing projects, but all segments, including social housing. According to social housing businesses, banks are politely refusing to lend from the 145,000 billion VND social housing loan package because the interest rate is too low (6.1%/year), while deposit interest rates in the market have risen to 7-8%/year, meaning banks would incur losses if they lent.
Currently, less than 5% of the 145 trillion VND credit package for social housing loans has been disbursed, despite being implemented for three years. Meanwhile, disbursement of the credit package for loans to young people under 35 years old is also limited.
According to Ms. Ha Thu Giang, Director of the Department of Credit for Economic Sectors (State Bank of Vietnam), the disbursement volume of the loan program for young people under 35 years old reached approximately VND 9,600 billion (an increase of about VND 2,000 billion compared to the end of 2025), including VND 8,100 billion for investors in 53 projects; and about VND 1,500 billion for homebuyers in 36 projects. The disbursement volume for loans to young people under 35 years old to buy social housing reached approximately VND 259 billion.
Although commercial banks claim they are not tightening real estate credit and are still funding good projects, given limited capital and quarterly credit limits, they must allocate funds very cautiously. Accordingly, except for "backdoor" projects, capital will be concentrated in priority and highly secure sectors to gain favor with regulatory authorities.
According to economist Dr. Le Xuan Nghia, the real estate market is cyclical, but in the long term, it poses no risk and is even very safe because it is closely linked to the operations of banks. The majority of banks' collateral is real estate, so real estate prices are unlikely to fall sharply.
This expert also argued that real estate is a sector with high spillover effects and suggested that the State Bank of Vietnam continue to implement policies to inject capital into this market to ensure its efficient operation. The government should control the rate of price increases, instead of tightening credit to this sector.
Capital continues to flow strongly into real estate.
While real estate businesses complain about difficulties in accessing capital, many experts and National Assembly representatives point out that, in reality, bank credit still flows mainly into real estate, and this is causing many negative consequences for the economy.
According to Mr. Nguyen Ngoc Bau, CEO of Wigroup, in the first quarter of 2026, commercial and industrial credit tended to decrease, while money continued to flow strongly into real estate and construction. Although data shows that agricultural credit continued to grow well along with real estate credit, the possibility of this money "circumventing the law" cannot be ruled out (borrowing capital to buy land for agricultural development, but in reality investing in agricultural real estate).
This expert argues that the inadequacies in the credit structure are the root cause of the persistent liquidity pressure on the banking system, as well as the instability of interest rates. Therefore, the liquidity support measures of the State Bank of Vietnam (through the OMO channel) only address the symptoms, not the root of the problem.
Financial reports from banks in 2025 show that, in many banks, real estate loans account for 30-50% of total real estate loan balances. This figure is incomplete, because in many banks, personal home purchase loans are not fully included in the real estate credit balance.
Therefore, on paper, real estate credit accounts for approximately 23-25% of the total outstanding loans in the entire system, but the actual figure is likely much higher. When more than a quarter of the economy's credit flows into real estate, access to capital for other sectors naturally narrows. This is also why manufacturing businesses are struggling.
According to data from the Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI), among the 500 largest private enterprises in Vietnam, more than 50% of revenue comes from finance and real estate, while the processing and manufacturing industry accounts for a low proportion.
According to economic experts, theoretically, tightening credit for high-end real estate and prioritizing loans for social housing and affordable housing projects is necessary. However, in reality, this is very difficult to achieve because many banks primarily target the high-end real estate segment. If this situation persists, the risks to the economy will increase.
Speaking at the National Assembly's socio-economic discussion session earlier this week, delegate Le Hoang Anh (Gia Lai) expressed "particular concern" about the issue. According to the delegate, in Vietnam, the majority of credit flows into speculative real estate, driving up house prices skyrocketing, making it impossible for young people to buy a house even after 30 years of hard work.
According to data presented by delegate Hoang Anh, the outstanding credit balance of all 35 commercial banks shows that real estate loans increased by 132% in 4 years, from VND 1,955,000 billion in 2021 to VND 4,541,000 billion in 2025, 2.4 times the growth rate of industrial credit. The scale of real estate credit in 2025 is 1.81 times larger than industrial credit and 5.3 times larger than agricultural, forestry, and fisheries credit.
Furthermore, real estate and construction alone account for 27.4% of total system credit. What Mr. Hoang Anh is particularly concerned about is that in 2024-2025 alone, real estate credit is expected to surge by 37.6%, while industrial credit will only increase by 9.4%. Arguing that a large portion of credit is "tied up" in real estate, Representative Hoang Anh proposed that the Government control speculative real estate credit using market mechanisms, avoiding administrative orders.
Meanwhile, Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, Vice Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City International Finance Center's Executive Agency, stated that the demand for capital for growth is enormous, while the available capital is limited. Therefore, banks must prioritize allocating capital to priority sectors.
In this context, experts recommend that businesses – not just real estate businesses – should diversify their capital raising channels and reduce their dependence on bank credit. Mr. Huan expects that the Ho Chi Minh City International Finance Center will be a new capital channel for the economy and the business community in the real estate sector. This expert suggests that tokenizing real assets to raise capital is a new approach that real estate businesses should consider.
- Dr. Can Van Luc, Member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council
The construction and real estate sector accounts for approximately 10% of the country's GDP, the highest level in the last nine years, and has a ripple effect on many other economic sectors. However, the excessive reliance of real estate businesses on bank credit poses significant risks to both the businesses themselves and the financial system.
In 2025, real estate credit is expected to grow at a faster rate than the overall economic growth rate (22%), with real estate business credit increasing by 28% and currently accounting for approximately 44% of total real estate loans.
With real estate credit being more tightly controlled, businesses' access to capital may become increasingly limited. Not to mention, the cost of borrowing is rising.
To reduce dependence on bank credit, real estate businesses need to diversify their capital raising channels, especially through corporate bonds, foreign direct investment, and real estate investment funds. The government also needs to quickly put into operation the National Housing Fund and local housing funds.
Real estate businesses themselves must recognize the need to restructure their operations, control cash flow risks, and limit diversified investments. Balancing various sources of capital – from credit, bonds, equity to international investment – will help businesses enhance their resilience to market fluctuations.
Source: https://baodautu.vn/von-van-chay-manh-vao-bat-dong-san-d575831.html
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