World Bank: The '3 Cs' pave the way for Vietnam's sustainable growth.

According to a World Bank representative, Vietnam needs to remain steadfast in its "three Cs" to realize its vision of becoming a high-income country by 2045.

Escaping the middle-income trap

Speaking at the Vietnam Economic Forum 2025, Outlook 2026, themed "Vietnam's Economy: Rapid, Sustainable Development and Green Transformation in the Digital Age," organized by the Central Policy and Strategy Committee in collaboration with the Government on December 16th, Ms. Mariam J. Sherman, Country Director of the World Bank in Vietnam, assessed that in 2025, increasing trade tensions and an uncertain external environment will present Vietnam with significant challenges.

Therefore, maintaining stability is necessary but not sufficient, and to realize the goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045, Vietnam must maintain rapid and sustainable growth while overcoming the structural challenges of the middle-income trap.

Ms. Mariam J. Sherman, Country Director of the World Bank in Vietnam

According to a World Bank representative, the reality is that the middle-income trap is a difficult obstacle to overcome. Since 1990, only 34 economies worldwide have successfully transitioned from middle-income to high-income status. This requires Vietnam to proactively shape its own development path, avoiding repeating the pitfalls that have caused many economies to stagnate for extended periods.

Nevertheless, Mariam J. Sherman also emphasized that Vietnam possesses many important advantages. These include a young and capable workforce, the ability to maintain macroeconomic stability, a strategic location within the Asian growth belt, and a proven capacity for learning and adaptation through its development.

In the current global economic context, Vietnam is facing both pressure and new impetus for its development ambitions. With an export-oriented economy, global headwinds such as rising protectionism, new tariff barriers, trade disputes, and the "friend shoring" trend are directly impacting export opportunities and investor confidence in East Asia and Vietnam.

According to the World Bank, as Vietnam integrates more deeply into global supply chains, the era of relatively easy growth based primarily on exports is gradually coming to an end. This requires Vietnam to adjust its development strategy towards a more proactive and sustainable direction, through diversifying growth drivers, deepening regional partnerships, and accelerating institutional reforms.

The path to realizing the 2045 vision.

Mariam Sherman stated that the World Bank has conducted numerous studies and analyses to provide policy recommendations to support Vietnam in realizing its goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045.

Firstly, fully unlocking the potential of the private sector is crucial for creating sustainable growth from within. In reality, Vietnam's private sector has not yet developed to its full potential. However, Resolution 68-NQ/TQ identifies the private sector as one of the most important drivers of the economy; it also sets a target of increasing the number of private enterprises to approximately 2 million by 2030. "If properly unleashed, the private sector can absolutely become the second driving force of growth alongside exports," affirmed Ms. Mariam Sherman.

Secondly, there needs to be stronger investment in human resources and technology. Currently, Vietnam's spending on research and development accounts for only about 0.5% of GDP, much lower than that of economies that have successfully transitioned to high-income groups. Strengthening innovation, developing skills, and applying technology will help increase domestic added value and the competitiveness of Vietnamese businesses.

Overview of the Vietnam Economic Forum 2025, Prospects for 2026 - Photo: VGP/Nhat Bac

Third, investing in resilient infrastructure is linked to green growth. Vietnam has committed to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. Investing in climate change adaptation and low-carbon development will help mitigate risks and unlock new growth drivers through green industries, clean energy, and sustainable employment. This will ensure that Vietnam's path towards high-income status is long-term and responsible for future generations.

Fourth, ensure that the benefits of the transition to a higher income level are shared more equitably. While Vietnam's inequality level remains low by international standards, opportunity gaps persist. These gaps remain, particularly in the poor's limited access to higher education . Even in a high-income scenario by 2045, nearly 20% of the population could still be left behind.

Fifth, continue to strengthen the institutions that serve as pillars of the economy. Vietnam has been pursuing major institutional reforms such as reorganizing administrative units and streamlining the apparatus. Institutional reforms will help overcome the middle-income trap; build a more efficient, transparent, and accountable government to support an increasingly complex market economy.

Furthermore, the focused selection and implementation of public investment will help ensure that every dollar of capital is used more effectively.

A World Bank representative emphasized that the goal of becoming a high-income country by 2045, while ambitious, is entirely feasible and within Vietnam's reach. However, achieving this success requires "three Cs".

That is, "Clarity." Development goals and implementation roadmaps must be clearly defined, specific, and measurable. Only with a clear direction can the entire system act in a unified and effective manner. "Consistency." Reforms need to be pursued consistently and without interruption, despite short-term obstacles or pressures. Only consistency can build trust within society and the business community. "Courage." This is the spirit of daring to confront difficult problems, making big decisions, and acting on structural challenges instead of avoiding or delaying them.

"Vietnam is at a historically significant moment. Very few countries have come this far and so quickly in rising from the aftermath of war and poverty to become a dynamic middle-income economy in just a few decades ," said Mariam J. Sherman, emphasizing that Vietnam's development story has inspired the world and shows how drastic reforms and the persistent hard work of a nation can create miracles.

The draft Political Report of the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam sets the goal of striving to achieve an average economic growth rate of 10% or more per year during the 2026-2030 period. However, in the current context, realizing the growth target for 2026 and the 2026-2030 period is a major challenge, requiring high demands and necessitating the shaping of development thinking and the establishment of a new growth model, creating new growth drivers linked to science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and green transformation; while simultaneously implementing decisive and effective solutions to best utilize and revitalize traditional growth drivers.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/world-bank-3-chu-c-mo-loi-cho-viet-nam-tang-truong-ben-vung-435109.html