Many export sectors have issued optimistic forecasts.
In 2025, Vietnam's export turnover is projected to reach over $475 billion, an increase of more than 17% compared to the previous year, equivalent to an increase of over $69 billion. This achievement is all the more commendable given the context of slow global economic growth and difficulties in trade with major markets. In 2026, the Ministry of Industry and Trade forecasts exports to continue increasing by approximately 8%, reaching $513 billion; simultaneously, the trade balance is expected to continue to have a surplus of over $23 billion, an increase of 15% compared to 2025. "This is a challenging figure given the many factors that could strongly impact export activities," said Mr. Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department.
To achieve export targets exceeding $500 billion, key manufacturing sectors have set ambitious plans. For example, the textile and garment industry, after reaching $46 billion in 2025, aims for an export turnover of approximately $50 billion this year, an increase of over 9%, based on restructuring the supply chain and effectively utilizing free trade agreements (FTAs). Mr. Vu Duc Giang, Chairman of the Vietnam Textile and Garment Association (Vitas), believes this is not a short-term target, but the result of a comprehensive restructuring process implemented over many years. Most importantly, the textile and garment industry is continuously improving its domestic supply chain capacity, increasing the localization rate, and effectively exploiting FTAs, thereby improving the position of Vietnamese businesses in the global value chain. " The textile and garment industry has set development goals that go beyond just export figures, aiming to build a modern textile and garment ecosystem with high self-reliance and a focus on sustainable development," Mr. Giang emphasized.
Durian is one of the agricultural products whose exports have increased sharply recently.
PHOTO: HOANG NGUYEN
Similarly, in the agricultural sector, many product lines are also preparing to enter the "10 billion USD club". Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen, General Secretary of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association (VINAFRUIT), said that in 2025, the export turnover of fruits and vegetables will reach nearly 8.6 billion USD, an increase of 20% compared to the previous year, and will be a brilliant year, establishing a new position for Vietnamese fruits, vegetables, and agricultural products. It is predicted that this year's fruit and vegetable exports could reach 9.5 - 10 billion USD.
Mr. Nguyen Nam Hai, Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (VICOFA), also excitedly announced that coffee exports in 2025 will reach a record $9 billion, a 59% increase compared to 2024. For three consecutive years, consistently high world coffee prices have been key to the industry achieving these historical milestones in export turnover. Thanks to high prices, farmers have intensified cultivation and replanting with new, high-quality varieties. Therefore, it is predicted that productivity will continue to increase by about 5-10% this year.
Notably, the electronics, computer, and components sector achieved export turnover of US$107.7 billion last year, accounting for nearly 23% of total export turnover, an increase of over 48% compared to 2024. This is also the group of goods with the highest export turnover among key export sectors. If related groups such as telephones and components are included, the total export turnover of electronic equipment and components is estimated at US$164.4 billion and is forecast to continue to grow positively this year. Economist Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang (Institute of International Economics and Trade Research, National Economics University) commented that export turnover and even foreign investment into Vietnam increased thanks to the wave of supply chain shifts according to the "China + 1" strategy. Most notably, the export of electronics, components, and equipment exceeding $100 billion owes a great deal to major technology corporations such as Intel, Samsung, Foxconn, and LG. These large electronics companies continue to aim for increased exports, alongside expanding production investments and investing in research and development. Trade from the electronics sector is expected to continue growing and become a key national export industry this year.
The advantage of "favorable timing, advantageous location, and harmonious human relations."
Forecasts indicate a bright and positive outlook for many export-oriented manufacturing sectors this year. However, to realize these goals, industry experts believe several internal challenges need to be addressed. For example, in the textile and garment export sector, while global demand is not expected to decrease in 2026, pressure to lower prices and the need for tax sharing will increase. Meanwhile, export orders are becoming smaller, requiring higher quality standards and shorter product lifecycles, demanding that businesses accelerate processing speeds and organize production more flexibly. "It is noteworthy that the textile and garment industry has recently increased its localization rate to 45-48%. Among the top 5 largest textile and garment exporting countries in the world, Vietnam ranks third in terms of proactive sourcing of raw materials, only after China and India," said Mr. Vu Duc Giang.
Regarding agricultural exports, Mr. Dang Phuc Nguyen advised that businesses and farmers must consider the planting area code as a "vital asset" and absolutely avoid fraud. In addition, strong intervention from management agencies is needed to eliminate violating entities. Businesses need to work closely with cooperatives to control raw material areas from the outset, avoiding situations of competitive buying and selling that lead to market price dumping. "Another noteworthy point is the shift in markets. Although China remains the number one market with a share of over 60%, 2025 is expected to see 'rapid' growth in demanding markets such as the US (up 52%), the Netherlands, Germany, and the ASEAN region. Therefore, besides durian , the fruit and vegetable industry expects 2026 to be a boom year for new products whose markets are opened up, such as fresh coconuts, pomelos (if the protocol with China is finalized), and deeply processed products," Mr. Nguyen said.
Vietnam's exports of high-tech electronic equipment have increased sharply.
PHOTO: NHAT THINH
Assessing the target of $500 billion in exports this year, economist Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Thuong Lang expressed optimism, stating that Vietnam currently possesses many favorable factors: "the right time, the right place, and the right people." Key export sectors continue to grow amidst fluctuating global trade flows with many uncertainties. "Electronics, equipment and components, machinery, as well as traditional industries like textiles, footwear, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries… all have shown positive developments, increasingly demonstrating their capabilities and performing very well. The most favorable factor is Vietnam's signing of numerous FTAs with major markets," Dr. Lang cited as evidence.
According to Mr. Lang, it is undeniable that Vietnam's exports are heavily dependent on the FDI sector, but in the past year, Vietnam witnessed a bright spot with significant progress in its export structure: the spectacular rise of agricultural and aquatic products. The growth of Vietnamese exports in markets with tariff protection demonstrates that Vietnam's position in the global supply chain has been and is being affirmed. It is important to note the need to increase the localization rate of exported goods.
During the period 2026-2030, the Ministry of Industry and Trade will implement a national trade promotion plan focused on building a modern promotion ecosystem. The focus will be on promoting trade within industry clusters, standardizing green standards, developing a digital trade promotion ecosystem where data becomes a core asset, and building a national export identity. Notably, the "Go Global" program implemented by the Ministry will select leading enterprises to act as the driving force of the ecosystem, ensuring that when a Vietnamese enterprise goes global, it does not go alone but brings the entire value chain with it.
Director of the Trade Promotion Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) Vu Ba Phu
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/xuat-khau-chinh-phuc-muc-tieu-500-ti-usd-185260119214859961.htm
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