Pepper exports to the Chinese market are expected to increase sharply in early 2025.

There is a shift in the market and types of pepper exported,

According to preliminary statistics of the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, in the month of October 2024, Vietnam exported 18.493 tons of pepper of all kinds with a total export turnover of 120,2 million USD. The average export price of black pepper in the month reached 6.284 USD/ton, down 28 USD, and white pepper reached 8.029 USD/ton, up 191 USD. The United States remained the largest export market in October, accounting for 10%, reaching 27,7 tons, down 5.128% compared to September. Next were the markets: Hong Kong reached 8,5 tons, UAE reached 9 tons, Netherlands reached 1.784 tons and Germany reached 1.382 tons.

In the first 10 months of 2024, pepper exports will earn 1,1 billion USD.

By the end of October 2024, Vietnam had exported 219.387 tons of pepper of all kinds, of which black pepper reached 193.892 tons and white pepper reached 25.495 tons. Total export turnover reached more than 1,1 billion USD, of which black pepper reached 881,6 million USD and white pepper reached 162,6 million USD. Compared to the same period last year, the export volume decreased by 1,9% (black pepper decreased by 3,3%, white pepper increased by 10,8%), but the export turnover increased by 48,0%. The average export price of black pepper in 10 months reached 4.971 USD/ton, an increase of 1.528 USD and white pepper reached 6.626 USD/ton, an increase of 1.671 USD compared to the same period in 2023.

Olam Vietnam is the largest exporter in the first 10 months of 2024, reaching 23.160 tons, accounting for 10,6% and increasing by 51,1% over the same period. Next are enterprises such as Phuc Sinh reaching 20.118 tons, accounting for 9,2%, increasing by 58,2%; Nedspice Vietnam reaching 17.014 tons, accounting for 7,8%, increasing by 10%; Haprosimex JSC reaching 16.002 tons, accounting for 7,3%, increasing by 77,5% and Tran Chau reaching 14.031 tons, accounting for 6,4% and decreasing by 0,8%...

The United States is the largest export market for Vietnamese pepper, accounting for 28,5%, reaching 62.553 tons, up 46,8% over the same period last year. Next are the markets: UAE reaching 14.540 tons, accounting for 6,6%, up 45,0%; Germany reaching 13.737 tons, accounting for 6,3%, up 77,2%; India reaching 9.428 tons, accounting for 4,3%, down 10,5% and the Netherlands reaching 9.295 tons, accounting for 4,2%, up 41,2% over the same period. China is the 6th largest export market of Vietnam reaching 9.252 tons, but compared to the same period, the export volume decreased by 84%.

Quarter III/2024, pepper price on the market world remained high, especially in August and September. The reason is said to be limited supply and increased import demand from markets. Entering the month of October 2024, pepper prices decreased due to sell-offs due to liquidity needs. In addition, the world pepper supply was supplemented from Brazil and Indonesia, while low demand from China affected pepper prices on the world market. Although it decreased sharply compared to the end of the month of September 2024, pepper prices in October 2024 still remained high.

In the third quarter of 2024, Vietnam's pepper exports will shift significantly. If in the second quarter of 2024 and the third quarter of 2023, Asia was Vietnam's largest pepper exporting region, then in the third quarter of 2024, there will be a shift to the Americas.

Accordingly, the proportion of Vietnam's pepper exports to the Americas increased from 27,63% of total turnover in the third quarter of 2023 to 39,23% in the third quarter of 2024. In contrast, the proportion of Vietnam's pepper exports to the Asian region decreased from 41,76% in the third quarter of 2023 to 28,66% in the third quarter of 2024 (mainly due to reduced exports to the Chinese market). In the first 9 months of 2024, Vietnam's pepper exports to most continents increased sharply (thanks to increased prices) compared to the same period last year, except for Oceania.

In the third quarter of 2024, the structure of exported pepper types has shifted compared to the third quarter of 2023. Accordingly, Vietnam increased the export of ground black pepper and ground white pepper, the proportion increased from 14,89% and 5,06% in the third quarter of 2023 to 16,91% and 4,47% in the third quarter of 2024. This shows that Vietnam's pepper industry has shifted to exporting processed pepper, instead of focusing on exporting raw pepper as before.

Regarding the EU market, on November 4, 2024, the European Commission published Implementing Regulation (EU) 2024/2794 amending Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/1378 concerning the recognition of certain bodies/entities performing organic control and certification in third countries for organic products imported into the EU pursuant to Article 46 of Regulation (EU) 2018/848 of the European Parliament and of the Council. This Regulation amends Annex II of Implementing Regulation (EU) 2021/1378 to list certain bodies/entities recognized by the EU to perform organic control and certification services for groups of products imported into the EU.

“In accordance with the new EU organic regulation EC 2018/848, in order to ensure transparency and meet higher requirements for organic assessment, the list of certification bodies that can carry out organic assessment according to the new regulation has been updated”, Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association said.

Three new certification bodies have been added to the list, bringing the total number of entities that can conduct new EU organic assessments in Vietnam to 12. These organizations have been granted the authority and capacity to conduct organic assessments according to the new EU standards in Vietnam.

The current CB list includes organizations that can assess according to the EC 2018/848 organic standard in Vietnam. Each CB is capable of assessing different categories depending on its competence and scope of licensing. The categories are clearly shown in the table, helping organic producers and exporters to choose the certification organization that suits their specific needs.

Expanding this list not only helps meet the growing demand for organic certification in Vietnam but also contributes to ensuring the quality and reputation of organic products exported to the EU market.

Pepper export activities are forecasted to be unfavorable in the short term.

In the short term, world pepper prices are forecast to fluctuate in a downward trend. However, the downward trend will not last long due to limited supply and increased import demand due to seasonal factors.

In major import markets, demand increased in the United States, the EU and Asia, but remained sluggish in the Middle East and China. Inventory levels have fallen significantly, causing farmers and dealers to limit sales. Brazil is currently the world's second largest producer and exporter of black pepper, accounting for 17-18% of global supply.

However, Brazil’s pepper exports for the 2024 crop are expected to decline for the third consecutive year due to low production. Meanwhile, Vietnam’s new 3 pepper crop is expected to be delayed by one month, which will have a positive impact on world pepper prices.

The Import-Export Department forecasts that Vietnam's pepper export activities will not be favorable in the last months of this year due to low domestic supply and low demand from China.

It is expected that in early 2025, Vietnam's pepper exports will be favorable thanks to the expected sharp increase in demand from the Chinese market. Meanwhile, after Indonesia's most recent harvest, until the month of February 2025, the world's pepper supply has not been significantly supplemented. This is considered a favorable factor when Vietnam enters the new harvest in 2025.