Seafood exports may reach 11 billion USD

A recent assessment by the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP) said that the export situation has shown signs of slowing down since the third quarter, due to the impact of the US's reciprocal tax.

However, the key product group still maintains good momentum, creating a foundation for the whole year's exports to reach the milestone of 11 billion USD. This is the industry's target this year, equivalent to a growth of 10 - 15% compared to 2024.

According to VASEP, the US market has entered a period of many fluctuations. Exports in the first 10 months still increased, reaching 1.66 billion USD, but the downward trend began to be evident from the third quarter due to the US's reciprocal tax. The two main products, shrimp and pangasius, both decreased in September and October.

Prospects are coming from other markets. China continues to be an "important fulcrum", bringing in more than 2 billion USD in 10 months, up 32%. This country loves lobster , sea fish, live crab and demand continues to increase at the end of the year, opening up significant growth space for businesses.

Tuna fishing boat docks at Hon Ro port, Nha Trang in early 2023. Photo: *Bui Toan*

CPTPP markets, especially Canada, Australia and Japan, continue to be the fastest growing regions, showing great advantages in taking advantage of tariff incentives. Over the past 10 months, Europe spent nearly 1 billion USD to buy Vietnamese seafood. Exports to South Korea increased by double digits in the same period, reaching 725 million USD.

Among the products, shrimp continues to play a key role, with a turnover of over 3.9 billion USD in 10 months. In second place is tra fish, bringing in about 1.8 billion USD. Tuna alone is still under pressure, with a turnover down 4% compared to the same period last year.

In its 2026 export forecast, VASEP said the situation will face many challenges, due to the continued reciprocal tax, the impact of the US Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) and the possibility of the EU continuing to maintain the IUU yellow card. In addition, pressure from India, Ecuador and Indonesia is increasing.

According to the seafood industry report of Agribank Securities (Agriseco), the price of Vietnamese shrimp is always higher than that of Ecuadorian, Indian or Indonesian shrimp, reducing competitiveness and making it more passive in market selection. High-priced markets such as the US, Japan, Korea and the EU require quality and stability.

For exports to the US, the reduction of the reciprocal tax to 20% is a positive signal, as it is not much higher than Ecuador (15%), Indonesia (19%) and more positive than India, according to Agriseco. However, the biggest risk is being investigated for anti-dumping.

The profits of seafood companies exporting to the US have been significantly affected by the reciprocal tax. VASEP believes that if the 35% anti-dumping tax continues to be imposed after the final results are finalized in December 2025, exporters will face greater pressure.

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