Ten years ago, Britain made a landmark choice: to leave the European Union (EU), relinquishing its membership in the world's largest single market in the hope of regaining control over its borders, laws, and economic policies.
But a decade later, the cost of Brexit remains evident.
On June 23, 2016, the Brexit referendum initiated a long and tumultuous divorce process between the United Kingdom and the EU. With a narrow margin, this historic decision plunged Britain into a decade of political instability and economic upheaval, the effects of which continue to this day.
The current instability within the ruling Labour Party is seen by many as just the latest chapter in a series of political aftershocks left behind for Britain by Brexit. Economically, the picture is also not very bright.
Although some of the worst-case scenarios predicted before Brexit did not materialize, such as an immediate economic recession or a housing market collapse, most economists agree that leaving the EU has diminished the UK's long-term growth potential, with estimates suggesting the economy lost between 2% and 8% of its potential output.
"Brexit is a persistent drag on the economy," said Michael Saunders, senior advisor at the consulting firm Oxford Economics and former Bank of England official.
Even Julian Jessop, an independent economist who supports Brexit, acknowledges that the initial impact of leaving the EU is “clearly negative.” However, he argues that the price Britain will pay is “lower than pessimistic forecasts” and that this impact will gradually diminish over time, according to CNN.
Promises that have not yet been fulfilled.
If accurately quantifying the economic cost of Brexit is difficult, then the benefits once promised by Brexit campaigners – from reduced regulations and immigration controls to improved public service resources and the opening of new trade relationships – are even harder to see.
The trade agreements that the UK has signed with countries such as Australia, New Zealand, India, and Japan are relatively small compared to UK-EU trade relations, which reached £856 billion (approximately $1.1 trillion ) last year according to official figures.
I was once promised that the country would become more prosperous after leaving the EU, but I don't feel that's true.
Geraint, a British software developer.
The immigration issue – one of the biggest reasons many people voted for Brexit – also did not unfold as expected.
According to the Oxford University Migration Observatory, net immigration to the UK has averaged around 550,000 people per year since 2021. In 2023 alone, net immigration to the UK reached nearly 950,000 – a record high – as the number of non-EU immigrants surged before falling again following new immigration controls.
Geraint said he initially voted for Brexit due to concerns about increased immigration putting pressure on the healthcare system and public services. However, if given the choice again, he would “100% vote to remain in the EU,” primarily because of better career opportunities.
“We were promised that Britain would be better off after leaving the EU, but that didn’t happen. Opportunities outside of Britain are now more attractive, while I feel trapped,” he said. Notably, his wife voted in favor of remaining in the EU in the 2016 referendum.
Businesses bear additional costs.
Although the 2016 referendum was decisive, it was only the beginning of a difficult process. Years of uncertainty followed as Britain and the EU debated the shape of their post-Brexit trade relationship.
Before Brexit, Britain was part of the EU customs union and single market, allowing for the free movement of goods, people, and capital. This meant that a farmer in south-east England could transport a truckload of potatoes to Paris with almost the same ease as sending them to London.
 |
Trucks arrive at Dover harbor on the southeast coast of England. Photo: Reuters. |
But after leaving the EU, similar shipments must go through customs procedures, border checks, and quarantine before being allowed into French territory.
“Businesses have adapted, but things have become more complicated. That increases costs and makes selling into our biggest market more difficult,” said Ben Fletcher, CEO of Logistics UK.
German technology giant Bosch says its UK subsidiary now handles around 10,000 import transactions annually, a sharp increase from just 40 transactions per year before Brexit.
While Bosch still views the UK as an attractive destination for business, the impact on small businesses has been more severe. Thousands of businesses have stopped trading with the EU, while many others are considering doing the same.
Annual surveys conducted by the British Chamber of Commerce since 2021 have shown that the majority of businesses believe the UK-EU trade agreement has not helped them increase sales.
"This is a simmering, long-standing problem that continues to stifle trade," said William Bain, head of trade policy at the organization.
Economic data also clearly reflects this trend, with UK goods exports declining compared to other major economies since 2016.
More worryingly, this decline is not only occurring in trade with the EU but also in other markets, suggesting that Brexit may have negatively impacted UK exports in general, according to Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics.
 |
London remains a financial center.
Although goods trade suffered after Brexit, the UK's services sector continued to grow.
The UK is currently the world's second-largest exporter of services after the US and the world's largest net exporter of financial services.
This is particularly important because the financial sector and related professional services contributed around 11% of the UK's total economic output last year, while providing jobs for around 2.5 million people, with about two-thirds of those jobs located outside London.
Concerns that the City of London financial district would lose its status to other European financial centers have not entirely materialized.
According to the professional services firm EY, between 2015 and 2025, the UK attracted 949 foreign direct investment projects in the financial services sector, more than the combined total of France and Germany.
"I don't think we've seen an overall decline in the UK as a financial services hub," said Andrew Pilgrim, a partner at EY.
"Overall, London and the UK remain the most important global financial center in this region."
 |
People celebrate Britain's departure from the EU on "Brexit Day" in London on January 31, 2020. Photo: Reuters. |
Returning to the EU remains a distant option.
Although the UK economy still maintains many strengths, offsetting the losses from losing free access to the EU market of nearly 500 million consumers will not be easy.
However, despite the negative impact on the economy, very few British businesses or politicians currently support reversing Brexit and rejoining the EU, partly because the issue remains deeply divisive within society.
According to Sean McGuire, Director at the Confederation of British Industry, rejoining the EU would create a new cycle of uncertainty for businesses that are only just beginning to adapt to post-Brexit trade relations.
"That's not a debate of the moment," he said.
Since the Labour Party came to power in 2024, relations between the UK and the EU have shown signs of warming. Prime Minister Keir Starmer pledged to “re-establish” relations with Brussels, particularly in the areas of security and defense. Both sides also expect to reach new agreements in areas such as food.
However, many experts are skeptical about the ability of these steps to significantly boost economic growth.
Restoring deeper access to the EU market would also force Britain to accept a certain degree of autonomy in setting its own regulations – an issue that was at the heart of the Brexit campaign.
Nevertheless, in a world that has changed profoundly since the 2016 referendum – with a more unpredictable America, an increasingly assertive China, and a rising India – Britain can hardly ignore the enormous economy right next door.
"It makes perfect sense for Britain to seek to improve its trade relations with its closest and largest trading partner," McGuire concluded.
Source: https://znews.vn/10-nam-brexit-nuoc-anh-van-tra-gia-post1662128.html
![[Image] National conference summarizing one year of operation of the overall organizational model of the political system, the three-tiered government model.](https://vphoto.vietnam.vn/thumb/1200x675/vietnam/resource/IMAGE/2026/07/01/1782882811691_ndo_br_1-jpg.webp)
