German elections 2025: Who will win?

On February 23rd, German citizens will go to the polls to elect a new government . Observers believe that the electoral trends in Germany have shifted this year.

Bầu cử Đức 2025: Ai sẽ là người chiến thắng?

Campaign posters of the candidates are displayed in Amelinghausen, Germany. (Source: Reuters)

The German newspaper Spiegel , citing recent polls by the Berlin-based Infratest Dimap electoral research institute, reports that the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Christian Social Union (CSU) are leading. The CDU and CSU alliance is currently 10 percentage points ahead of the far-right populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD), which is in second place.

Prime Minister Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the Green Party are tied for third and fourth place; finally, the Free Democratic Party (FDP), part of a three-way ruling coalition, is in last place.

SPD candidate Olaf Scholz. (Source: DW)

Germany's electoral process

According to regulations in Germany, voters casting their ballots on February 23 (local time) will not directly elect the next Chancellor to replace Olaf Scholz. Instead, German voters will elect politicians to the lower house of the German Parliament (Bundestag).

Whichever party wins the majority of votes – the party with the most representatives in the Bundestag – will have the right to form a governing coalition. Such coalitions usually hold a majority in Parliament.

Germany has seen two instances of minority governments, in 1966 and 1982. Typically, the party with the most votes in the ruling coalition appoints the chancellor to lead the government.

According to preliminary polls on the voting percentages for the future German Chancellor, CDU candidate Friedrich Merz received 34% of the vote, SPD candidate Olaf Scholz received 26%, Green Party candidate Grüne received 25%, and AfD candidate Alice Weidel received 19%.

How the Chancellor is elected in Germany

Traditionally, parties choose their leadership candidates before the election. After the vote, the parties decide on the formation of a governing coalition. Once a potential coalition has been established, the German President (head of state) will nominate a candidate to be elected by the members of the Bundestag as Chancellor (head of government).

The individual chosen by the president is usually the leading candidate of a high-level coalition partner in a newly formed government. This candidate must secure a majority of support to win the secret ballot.

Once the winner is determined, that person can begin nominating Cabinet candidates.

CDU candidate Friedrich Merz. (Source: AFP)

Who will be the winner?

According to Spiegel , Germany's decision to hold early elections on February 23rd stems from the recent collapse of the three-party coalition (also known as the "Traffic Light" coalition), comprising the Social Democratic Party (SPD), the Green Party, and the Free Democratic Party (FDP).

This three-party coalition is the result of the 2021 election, which helped Olaf Scholz defeat Angela Merkel of the CDU/CSU party to become Chancellor of Germany, after 16 consecutive years in power.

Unlike in 2021, at this point, with only two days left before the election, CDU candidate Friedrich Merz is leading the SPD and other parties.

The newspaper emphasized that, interestingly, Merz's leading position was not due to the rise of the CDU party, but mainly because the two candidates from the SPD, Olaf Scholz, and the Green Party, Deputy Chancellor Robert Habeck, were unpopular with voters.

Will Merz be able to maintain his current lead until the official election day on February 23rd to become Germany's new Chancellor?