Bitcoin is trading near the $60,000 mark after briefly falling to close to $58,000, its lowest level since late 2024. The stability over the weekend is noteworthy as renewed tensions in the Middle East continue to test risk appetite across global markets.
Realized dominance rate of short-term Bitcoin investors. Image: Crypto.news
During the previous trading week, Bitcoin started positively, rising to around $65,500 after regaining support near $64,000. However, this recovery quickly weakened as selling pressure pulled the price down below $62,400, then to around $59,000, and at one point close to $58,000.
The latest developments suggest the market is attempting to form a base after a rapid decline. Buyers are still trying to defend the $60,000 level after the price was repeatedly tested below this mark. This temporary stability is particularly noteworthy given that the US and Iran continue to accuse each other regarding the breakdown of the ceasefire agreement.
Previously, Bitcoin had surpassed $65,500 after the agreement between the US and Iran eased concerns about oil prices and inflation. However, this rally did not last as investors turned their attention back to liquidity, ETF inflows, and risks associated with Strategy.
Technically, Bitcoin is currently stuck between two key short-term price zones. A break below $58,000 could increase selling pressure. Conversely, a clear rebound above the $64,000-$66,000 range could indicate that buyers are gradually regaining control.
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One major source of pressure remains Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy. Concerns surrounding the company's capital structure are impacting market sentiment because Strategy is currently the largest institutional Bitcoin holder. Bitcoin has fallen below $60,000 for the second time in June, while the value of liquidations on the market has exceeded $850 million.
Strategy shares also fell sharply as traders monitored the performance of the company's common stock, preferred stock, and Bitcoin holdings. Some analysts suggest that the mechanism that helped Strategy raise capital at a high stock valuation to buy more Bitcoin is becoming more difficult to sustain as market valuations weaken.
CryptoQuant also recommended that Strategy pause Bitcoin purchases and strengthen cash reserves, noting that the dividend guarantee associated with STRC has decreased to approximately 14 months.
This pressure doesn't mean Strategy is forced to sell Bitcoin immediately, but the market is watching to see if tensions at STRC or MSTR will increase anxiety about BTC.
Market Watcher analysts believe Bitcoin's weekly structure remains fairly clear, with a descending trend line formed from the July and August highs around $70,000 and $67,000 respectively. From this perspective, the current range reflects a consolidation between $59,000 and $66,000.
From a longer-term perspective, EGRAG CRYPTO focuses on Bitcoin's 12-month cycle. The analyst suggests that Bitcoin's typical pattern is three years of price increases followed by one year of decline, but the current cycle could be different if 2026 closes with a bearish annual candle. While the four-year cycle remains unbroken, price structure and year-end closing levels are considered more important than mere expectations.
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On-chain data also suggests the market is in a sensitive state. CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk stated that the realized dominance of short-term holders has fallen to 27.6%, a level comparable to historical accumulation zones, where the majority of realized capital was in the hands of long-term investors.
Meanwhile, the LTH SOPR index being near or below 1 indicates that long-term holders are selling near break-even or incurring losses, a rare situation that previously lasted for more than 3 months on the monthly chart in October 2022, when Bitcoin traded near $20,000.
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