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The world's largest gold fund sold off more than 17 tons of gold in just four days. Photo: Reuters . |
According to data from Muavangbac.vn , on June 26th, the world's largest gold fund, SPDR Gold Trust, continued to net sell 2 tons of gold, bringing its holdings down to approximately 1,005 tons. This marks the fourth consecutive day that the fund has sold off its holdings, with a total volume exceeding 17 tons of the precious metal.
Notably, the sell-off occurred as the gold market closed the trading week in a "fragile" state, with prices clinging to the crucial support level of $4,000 per ounce. The precious metal is on track to record its fourth consecutive weekly decline, the longest losing streak since August 2023.
Kitco experts note that in recent months, the gold market has faced significant challenges as the conflict in Iran has severely disrupted global energy markets, driving up oil prices and raising concerns about inflation. These concerns are gradually becoming a reality after the US Federal Reserve (Fed) shifted from an easing stance to a more hawkish one, signaling support for a potential interest rate hike later this year.
At the same time, the US economy has maintained its resilience despite the global energy crisis, thereby reviving the "American exceptionalism" narrative—the view that the US economy is superior to the rest of the world—and providing further impetus to the US dollar.
In an interview with Kitco , Christopher Vecchio, Head of Futures and Forex Strategy at Tastylive, said that after four months of maintaining a neutral stance on gold, he shifted to a negative outlook following the Fed's latest monetary policy meeting.
Although the Fed kept interest rates unchanged, its updated economic forecasts suggest support for a rate hike before the end of the year. Furthermore, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh emphasized that the central bank's top priority remains ensuring price stability.
Alex Kuptsikevich, Director of Market Analysis at FxPro, believes that although gold ended the week above a key support level, he doubts that the $4,000 mark will be able to hold in the future.
He noted that recent price movements have formed a negative technical pattern called a "death cross," which occurs when the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average. "From the latter half of the week, sellers continuously tried to push the price below the crucial psychological level of $4,000 , but by Friday afternoon the pressure had eased somewhat," he said.
Additionally, on the weekly chart, attempts to push the price back above the 50-week moving average have failed. However, this is also a support zone that proved effective late last year, so a fierce tug-of-war around the current area is likely.
David Morrison, Senior Analyst at Trade Nation, also warned that gold's short-term momentum remains heavily skewed towards the negative. He analyzed that although the MACD indicator on the daily chart shows gold in an oversold state, the "oversold state" is not as deep as it was in March. This means there is a possibility that sellers will push prices down again to force investors who bought earlier to cut their losses.
Meanwhile, Fawad Razaqzada, a market analyst at FOREX.com, believes that price movements next week will be decisive in determining whether gold has bottomed out. The market has seen prices fall below $4,000 , but selling pressure hasn't been strong enough to push prices down further.
However, if this recovery continues to weaken like previous rallies, the risk of breaking through the support zone will be high, paving the way for prices to return to the $3,500 region in the coming weeks. Conversely, the $4,098 level, the low established in March, will be the first resistance zone to watch, followed by the $4,200 region.
Despite significant downside risks, many experts see current price levels as attractive opportunities for long-term investors. Some believe it will be difficult for gold to remain below $4,000 for an extended period. They also note that while central bank demand for gold has slowed, official sector buying remains a crucial source of support, potentially creating a solid price base for the market.
Source: https://znews.vn/ca-map-vua-ban-thao-hon-17-tan-vang-post1663691.html
