Europe avoided the worst scenario by turning its back on Russian gas, but the long-term energy security problem remains unresolved.
Since the outbreak of the Ukraine conflict, Europe knows they will soon face many complicated problems related to cheap Russian gas, the energy source they have relied on for decades for heating and production. .
For Europe, energy security is always a trade-off. Cheap imported energy always comes with the risk of making them dependent on suppliers.
European officials once predicted that a long and cold winter in 2022-2023 would force them to reduce sanctions on Russia, because members of the European Union (EU) could not let people Our people endure the cold for the sake of Ukraine.
However, the recent warm winter and gas conservation efforts have helped Europe avoid this scenario, and prompted them to abandon the Wandel durch Handel (Change by Trade) policy that has been in place for decades. past ten years. Policymakers Wandel durch Handel once believed that Russia would gradually change and lean towards Western values after a long period of doing business with Europe.
The first step that Europe took was to gradually reduce gas imports from Russia. In 2021, the year before the Ukraine conflict broke out, 45% of the EU's gas imports came from Russia. In Germany, this figure stands at 52%.
However, these numbers decreased after the outbreak of hostilities. According to EU data, in the first quarter of 2023, Russia accounted for only 17,4% of the entire bloc's gas imports.
Gas receiving station from Russia's Nord Stream 2 pipeline near Lubmin, Germany in February 2. Image: CNN
The next step is to take advantage of the warm winter to fill gas reserves, in preparation for the 2023-2024 winter. Europe's gas reserves are so full that the consensus is that the Kremlin cannot weaponize energy to change Europe's resolve.
The entire EU reached its target of 90% gas reserves by mid-August, before the deadline of November 8. Europe has also significantly diversified its energy sources.
But analysts worry that these measures are only temporary and cannot ensure long-term energy security for Europe. The most worrying thing for European countries is that despite their efforts to diversify gas supplies, the majority of current reserves are liquefied natural gas (LNG).
“LNG is such an obvious solution that it has become a priority. But because LNG can be traded quite flexibly, tracing its origin will be more difficult. That means a large amount of LNG that Europe imports could still come from Russia," said Milan Elkerbout, researcher at the Center for European Policy Research.
Europe says it buys most LNG from the US, Qatar and Nigeria, but the commodity is often sold on exchanges, where there is often no clear data on the gas's origin.
In addition, when Europe abandoned the Wandel durch Handel policy with Russia, they became dependent on other countries' energy. When it comes to energy security, dependence ultimately comes down to a trade-off between economic benefits and risks, according to Luke McGee, an analyst at CNN.
One of the ways the EU hopes to help them escape energy dependence is through the Green Deal, a plan to turn Europe into an emissions-neutral continent by 2050. This project is expected to cost more than one trillion USD, will include many activities from planting 3 billion trees to renovating buildings to save energy. In addition, large investments in renewable energy and clean transportation also play an important role.
The first big milestone in the Green Deal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. But observers are concerned about slow progress in implementing this goal, causing some countries to may have to seek energy transition support from China.
“China started its industrial strategy on green energy about 15 years ago. They have done very well, securing natural resources like lithium to make batteries, steel to make wind turbines, and building manufacturing capacity to meet the growing needs of all of this,” Adam Bell , former British energy official, said.
Bell added that Europe, meanwhile, appears incompetent and perhaps unable to avoid the scenario where “China will play an important role in Europe's green future.”
This poses challenges for Europe related to geopolitics and security, according to observers.
Velina Tchakarova, a leading expert on European security, said that with significant raw material resources and state protection, Chinese industry has a competitive advantage that European companies are increasingly finding it difficult to capture. keep.
LNG receiving port in Rotterdam, Netherlands last year. Image: AFP
Tchakarova believes that if it has to rely on China for green transformation, Europe will face many great risks, as it continues to depend on a large partner for supply, something Europe has learned from climate change. Burn Russia.
Europe has made efforts to solve the energy security problem, but still faces big challenges. With Europe's aging population and stagnant economy, the continent still needs huge amounts of energy if it wants to maintain its current lifestyle, according to analyst Luke McGee.
“One of the ironies of life is that those who hold the energy cards are sometimes our most unreliable partners and future opponents,” McGee quoted an EU diplomat as saying. .
Thanh Tam (Follow CNN)
