Will coffee prices continue to skyrocket?

Coffee prices on May 13, 2024, in both domestic and international markets are forecast to continue rising due to international concerns that severe drought in the Central Highlands will lead to a decline in Vietnam's Robusta coffee production (Vietnam being the world's largest Robusta coffee producer).

Simultaneously, the impact of climate change, particularly the El Niño phenomenon, is causing droughts across coffee-growing regions worldwide. In Vietnam alone, the 2023-2024 crop could see a 20% decrease to 1.47 million tons, the lowest level in four years, due to drought. This information has caused Robusta coffee prices in the Vietnamese domestic market to surge unprecedentedly in just a few days.

In addition, military conflicts around the world and tensions in the Red Sea have increased shipping costs and other expenses, driving up coffee prices. Many financial speculators worldwide have chosen coffee (after oil and gold) as a speculative asset, which has also contributed to the sharp rise in coffee prices.

Previously, on May 12, 2024, domestic coffee prices increased slightly, with the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces being 99,300 VND/kg, and the highest purchase price in Dak Nong and Dak Lak provinces at 99,500 VND/kg. Specifically, coffee was purchased at 99,000 VND/kg in Gia Lai and Kon Tum provinces; in Dak Nong province, coffee was purchased at the highest price of 99,000 VND/kg.

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In Lam Dong province, the price of green coffee beans (fresh coffee beans) in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha is 98,500 VND/kg. In Dak Lak province, the price in Cu M'gar district is approximately 99,500 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it is 99,600 VND/kg.

At 8:40 PM on May 12th (Vietnam time) on the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices fluctuated between 3195 and 3440 USD/ton. Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contracts for July 2024 delivery on the London exchange was 3,440 USD/ton, up 0.03% or 1 USD/ton compared to the opening price. The September 2024 delivery contract was 3,362 USD/ton; the November 2024 delivery contract was 3,288 USD/ton; and the January 2025 delivery contract was 3,195 USD/ton.

Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Similarly, Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange on the evening of May 12th also saw decreases in earlier contracts and increases in later contracts. Specifically, the July 2024 contract was 201.15 cents/lb, down 0.15% or 0.30 US cents/lb compared to the end of the previous session. The September 2024 contract was 199.95 cents/lb; the December 2024 contract was 198.80 cents/lb; and the March 2025 contract was 198.20 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices on the evening of May 12, 2024, fluctuated depending on the contract period, ranging from US$239.05 to US$246.90 per ton. Specifically, the May 2024 delivery contract was US$246.90 per ton, an increase of 0.39%, equivalent to US$0.95. The July 2024 contract was US$250.60 per ton; the September 2024 contract was US$243.20 per ton; and the December 2024 contract was US$239.05 per ton.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

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Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, trading hours will be from 19:00 to 02:35 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-1352024-gia-ca-phe-tiep-tuc-vun-vut-tang-319671.html