Experts believe that the stock has not yet waved, but moving from the bottom to the recovery stage is an opportunity to accumulate stocks for 3 months to a year.
Despite positive information such as lowering the ceiling of operating interest rates, the new decree on bonds to help remove difficulties for real estate businesses, reduce VAT to stimulate consumption demand has been continuously released, but the stock market has not The past has not shown an explosion. The VN-Index has struggled in the past two months in the price range of 1.030-1.080 points with a range of no more than 20 points per session. This area is significantly narrower than in the first three months of the year, when the index sometimes dropped close to 1.000 points and then went up to nearly 1.120 points.
The gray tone of the market is also reflected in the weakening of new accounts and investors' cash flow. Last month, only 22.740 new accounts entered the market – the lowest number in three years. The average trading value of each session is about 11.000 billion dong and some sessions are less than 7.000 billion dong, which is less than 20% compared to the exciting market period.
“This shows that stock investors are in a state of high defense after a year of losing more than they have gained,” said Mr. Le Vu Kim Tinh – Director of Tan Binh branch, Phu Hung Securities Company (PHS) – speak.
According to Mr. Tinh, the current stock market is not bright, but it is also not so dark because of bad news about financial health, the growth prospects of the business have been exhausted after the annual shareholders' meeting and the announcement. Good news is emerging with greater density. The loosening monetary policy and supporting businesses are considered the biggest fulcrum for the recovery. However, because the policy needs time to penetrate and create an impact, the market cannot get up immediately, but must wait at least a few months.
Mr. Tinh said that VN-Index struggled strongly for many months, which is a sign that the market has made a bottom. Therefore, investors should not fear that the market will plunge suddenly like the scenario happened in the second half of last year, instead, they should accumulate stocks for a medium-term vision of 3-6 months and a long-term view of more than one year.
For investors with a high risk appetite, he said that the current situation is easy to make them lose patience because they can't buy because the price is smoldering, but also can't sell because the profit is not as expected.
Investors monitor stock prices at a stock exchange in District 1, Ho Chi Minh City. Image: Quynh Tran
Sharing the same opinion, Mr. Le Anh Tuan - Securities Division Director of Dragon Capital Investment Fund - in a meeting with investors a week ago also confirmed that VN-Index is moving from the bottom to the recovery phase. Monetary policy shifting from tightening to loosening, relatively attractive stock valuations, falling interest rates, and stable exchange rates will limit the index's ability to drop 15-20% in a short time.
Mr. Tuan recommends that investors do not leave the market at a quiet time but consider this an attractive accumulation period for the medium and long term. Falling sessions should be seen as an opportunity to restructure and reduce the capital cost of the portfolio, but avoid using too large a leverage ratio.
“We should not expect a profit of 30% or 50% this year. Whoever can do that is a genius. This is the accumulation phase for a growth phase next year. If the market falls and you feel scared, just close your eyes and buy," Mr. Tuan said.
Analyzing potential industry groups, Mr. Tinh said that when the zig-zag market goes up slowly and cash flow is not abundant, agricultural stocks, textiles and export items should be prioritized. These are usually very fast accelerators when the market stabilizes and businesses broadcast positive news about new orders.
In addition, Mr. Tinh also highly appreciated the medium and long-term price growth prospects of groups benefiting from disbursement of public investment capital such as infrastructure construction, building materials and energy. For major stocks such as banks, securities or real estate, this expert believes that disbursement should only be made with a short-term trading strategy when the market is really wavering and liquidity is explosive.
Eastern
