The four suspects who terrorized the theater on the outskirts of the Russian capital all come from Tajikistan, an allied country in Central Asia, which is considered Moscow's backyard.
ISIS-K, the Afghan branch of the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS), claimed responsibility for the attack. The US government also identified this group as being behind the attack, saying they had collected intelligence about the threat of terrorism from IS in early March and warned Russia.
However, the four terrorist suspects are not from Afghanistan, but are all citizens of Tajikistan, a Central Asian country that once belonged to the Soviet Union and has deep historical ties with Russia. Tajikistan is currently part of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), an alliance that President Vladimir Putin has long hoped would become a NATO equivalent.
Tajikistan, a country with a population of 10 million people, sandwiched between Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and China, is the poorest of the former Soviet Union countries. Tajikistan has abundant mineral resources, but has not been properly developed due to low foreign investment and incomplete geological data.
Poverty and unemployment have also pushed many Tajiks to Russia in search of work. It is estimated that more than 3 million Tajiks are currently migrant workers in Russia, most working in low-paying jobs in construction, manufacturing or cleaning public toilets.
A family is preparing to bake bread at their house in Dakhana Kiik village, Tajikistan. Image: AP
Although Russia is increasingly dependent on migrant workers to meet its domestic work needs, Russian attitudes toward people from Central Asia and the Caucasus region are generally not positive.
In Tajikistan today, it is virtually impossible for people with university degrees to find jobs that pay enough for them to build a normal family life. Living in poverty, they become easy targets for radical Muslim recruiters.
Along with poverty, Tajik society also harbors religious tensions. Conservative Muslims were one of the main anti-government forces in the 1992-1997 conflict, which killed more than 150.000 people and devastated the economy.
President Emomali Rahmon then issued many drastic measures to prevent religious conflicts, such as restricting the construction of mosques and banning women and children under 18 years old from entering mosques.
The specter of radical Islam from neighboring Afghanistan is also a reason why Mr. Rahmon implemented these policies. However, observers believe that those strict regulations have contributed to promoting radical Islamic propaganda activities on social networks in Tajikistan.
The rise of Islamic extremism, combined with a difficult life at home, is said to be the "perfect formula" that drew four Tajik suspects into terrorism.
Suspect Dalerjon Mirzoyev, 32 years old, once entered Russia to find work and was granted temporary residence for three months in Novosibirsk city, in the Siberian region, but this permit has expired.
Suspect Saidakrami Rachabalizod, 30 years old, was determined to enter Russia on March 6 as a migrant worker, but did not register his legal residence. Rachalbalizod once went to Russia to work and was arrested in 3 for allegedly violating the temporary residence period for immigrants. The suspect was then fined 2018 rubles and deported from Russia.
Muhammadsobir Fayzov, 19 years old, the youngest suspect, came to Russia to work as a barber and registered temporary residence in the city of Ivanovo, east of Moscow.
Shamsidin Fariduni, 25, who was identified as the group's commander, worked in a construction materials factory in the city of Podolsk, southwest of Moscow. He also worked as a repairman and janitor in Krasnogorsk, the Moscow suburb where the Crocus City Hall theater and shopping center complex is located.
Location Russia and Tajikistan. Graphics: World Atlas
But terrorist attacks since 2015 have all been claimed by pro-IS groups. After IS declared its establishment in Syria and Iraq in June 6, thousands of people joined this extremist force, including hundreds from Tajikistan.
One of the most prominent people to join IS is Gulmurod Khalimov, who was a special forces officer in Tajikistan before deserting and joining IS in Syria in 2015.
Russia's campaign is considered one of the important reasons why IS was defeated in Syria. IS remnants withdrew into the desert to restore their forces and increased their targeting of Russia, claiming that Moscow had "suppressed Islam".
The group claimed responsibility for the 2015 bombing of a Russian plane bringing tourists back from the Egyptian resort of Sharm al-Sheik. Two years later, they claimed to be behind the suicide bombing of a subway train in St. Petersburg, leaving 15 people dead.
Two weeks before the Crocus theater terrorist attack, Russian security forces said they had raided IS members who were planning to attack a synagogue in Moscow. Earlier this month, they announced the destruction of six IS militants in the Ingushetia region, adjacent to Chechnya.
Russian security forces at Crocus City Hall theater, Krasnogorsk, Moscow region on March 22. Image: RIA Novosti
Observers say that Russia's response to the Crocus theater terrorist attack could also cause division between it and Tajikistan, one of its traditional allies in Central Asia.
The relationship between Russia and Tajikistan previously had many cracks, when Moscow's influence in its "backyard" increasingly declined due to the impact of the conflict in Ukraine. Armenia, a country in Central Asia and a member of the CSTO, announced in February that it would suspend its participation in this collective security treaty, a move that is considered a blow to Russia's image in the region.
In October 10, President Rahmon harshly asked Russia to respect Tajikistan. He said Tajikistan had to "beg" Russia to attend the Community of Independent States forum taking place in the country. “We have never been treated by Russia as a strategic partner. We want to be respected,” he said.
Bilateral relations may witness more difficulties, when Russia is likely to have to reconsider its policy of encouraging immigration towards people from Central Asia, according to observers. If Russia tightens its immigration policy, the lives of about 1/3 of Tajikistan's population will be severely affected, creating more pressure on this country.
Thanh Tam (Follow The Conversation, Business Insider, AP)
