Why is conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo so unpredictable?

Opposing military forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo have seized control of a major city and declared their intention to advance on the capital, Kinshasa, amid fears of escalating conflict.

The Associated Press reported on February 3rd that hospitals in Goma, a city in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo, are severely overwhelmed amid ongoing fighting between the M23 opposition military force and government troops. Since the M23 attacked Goma on January 26th and seized control of the city of 2 million people the following day, more than 770 people have been killed and nearly 3,000 injured. Unlike in 2012, when they controlled Goma for about a week before withdrawing, the M23 now declares its intention to advance towards the capital Kinshasa with the aim of controlling the Central African nation.

The conflict has been ongoing.

The conflict in the Democratic Republic of Congo stems from ethnic tensions, with the M23 defending the rights of the Tutsi people and considered the strongest of more than 100 armed opposition groups across the country. The UN estimates that the M23 has over 8,000 members in areas of North Kivu province near the borders with Rwanda and Uganda.

The M23 is named after March 23, 2009, the date when the Tutsi opposition group, the National Congress for the Defense of the People (CNDP), signed an agreement to end fighting with the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The M23 was established in 2012 after the CNDP accused the government of failing to implement the terms of the agreement, such as incorporating Tutsi into the armed forces, protecting minority groups, and allocating resources, according to The Guardian . The Democratic Republic of Congo has large reserves of metals and rare earth minerals commonly used in the technology sector. The US Department of Commerce estimates that the DRC has mineral reserves such as copper, cobalt, lithium, and gold worth $24 trillion, which remain largely unexploited.

Members of the M23 are recruiting additional troops in Goma (Democratic Republic of Congo) on January 30.

After a conflict that lasted until 2022, M23 attacked government forces in North Kivu province. The ongoing conflict then led to M23 gaining control of the towns of Rubaya Katale, Masisi, Minova, and Sake, before attacking Goma last week.

Risk of spreading

The UN, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the US, and several other countries accuse Rwanda of supporting the M23 in the conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, although Rwanda denies this. UN experts estimate that around 4,000 Rwandan soldiers are supporting the M23. Meanwhile, allies, including Burundi, are supporting the Democratic Republic of Congo against the M23. According to Reuters, the involvement of multiple parties in the conflict raises concerns about the fighting spreading to the region, as happened in the First Congo War (1996-1997) and the Second Congo War (1998-2003).

Rwandan presidential spokesperson Stephanie Nyombayire stated on February 2nd that the country is being unfairly blamed for the crisis in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which she claims is a consequence of "internal governance failures and threats to Rwandan leaders, for which the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo should be held accountable." Following the M23's control of Goma, the UN, the US, the UK, and France condemned Rwanda's support for the force. However, unlike the events of 2012, these countries have not yet exerted financial pressure on Rwanda to stop supporting the M23. Observers believe this is related to Rwanda's changing position, as President Paul Kagame is increasingly regarded for improving the country's economic and military standing after the 1994 genocide.

While pressing towards the capital, the M23 forces demanded that the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo engage in direct dialogue. The New Times reported on February 2nd that M23 spokesman Lawrence Kanyuka called on the government to engage in dialogue about "the root causes of the conflict and the establishment of lasting peace for the country." However, the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo refused direct dialogue, stating that the M23 is a terrorist organization.

The Democratic Republic of Congo is located in Central Africa. It is the second largest country in Africa by area, bordering the Central African Republic and South Sudan to the north, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania to the east, Zambia and Angola to the south, and the Republic of Congo to the west.

Source: https://thanhnien.vn/tai-sao-xung-dot-kho-luong-o-chdc-congo-185250203230906656.htm