The stalemate continues.

The strategy of buying stocks at the lower end of the accumulation channel around 1,240-1,250 points and taking profits when the VN-index touches the upper end of the accumulation channel at 1,290-1,300 points is still proving effective.

The strategy of buying stocks at the lower end of the accumulation channel around 1,240-1,250 points and taking profits when the VN-index touches the upper end of the accumulation channel at 1,290-1,300 points is still proving effective.

The VN-Index closed the week at 1,254 points, a slight increase of 0.17%. The average trading value across all three exchanges reached just over 16,000 billion VND per session, approximately 20% lower than the previous trading week. Excluding block trades, the market's order matching liquidity decreased by 18.4%, to 12,381 billion VND. Total liquidity for the entire month of October reached 17,764 billion VND.

Foreign investors had a strong net selling week of -7,800 billion VND, concentrated inVIB shares (-5,400 billion VND).

On the technical chart, the VN-Index fluctuated within a narrow range throughout the trading week and struggled to break through the near resistance level at 1,263 points, corresponding to the 10-day moving average. The momentum supporting the index during the past trading week mainly came from large-cap stocks, especially some bank stocks with positive news regarding dividend payouts.

According to MBS Research experts, in the context of a lack of supporting information and new variables surrounding the US presidential election next week, the market is likely to continue its sideways trend in the coming trading week. Investors should also note the scenario where the index may retreat to deeper support levels (1,240 +/- 5 points) to trigger new buying pressure.

Concerns about the rapidly increasing exchange rate pressure are raised, according to experts at Agriseco Research. They believe this will have a certain impact on the stock market, affecting investor sentiment and contributing to the strong net selling by foreign investors in October. The rising exchange rate will also affect the costs of businesses, especially those dependent on imported raw materials or with foreign currency loans denominated in USD. Although the exchange rate is rising rapidly in the short term, with the Fed beginning interest rate cuts, this increase may not last long. Simultaneously, with the State Bank of Vietnam resuming the issuance of treasury bills, the upward pressure on the exchange rate has slowed down over the past week.

Regarding investment strategy for the coming period, Agriseco Research assesses that, with the VN-Index continuing to fluctuate within a narrow range amidst a lack of supporting information, investors should maintain a cautious attitude and limit short-term transactions and T+ day trading until the market trend is clearly confirmed. With positive developments from expansionary fiscal policies and loose monetary policies in Q4, the VN-Index still has significant room for price increases in the medium term.

Regarding the buy order, investors should take advantage of market corrections to attractive support levels (1240 +/- 5 points) to accumulate shares for the long term, prioritizing shares of leading companies in the VN30 group, companies projected to have positive profit growth in Q4 and bright prospects in 2025.

Additionally, for active investors, sectors with high liquidity such as Banking, Securities, and Real Estate are also sectors worth considering for short-term investment portfolios.

Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, Head of Macroeconomics and Market Strategy at VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company, has an optimistic view on valuation, noting that the Q3 2024 business performance recorded an 8.7% increase in total revenue and an 18.7% increase in after-tax profit compared to the same period last year, significantly outperforming the growth in the first half of the year. This brighter business performance will somewhat improve market valuations and support investor sentiment.

At the same time, Mr. Hinh believes that exchange rate pressure may ease in the second half of Q4 as the Fed continues its interest rate cut trajectory and the supply of foreign currency increases towards the end of the year thanks to positive FDI and remittance inflows. Therefore, he maintains the view that the 1,240-1,250 point range will be a strong support zone for the VN-index.

Long-term investors may consider increasing their stock holdings if the VN-index corrects to the aforementioned support zone, prioritizing stock groups with positive business prospects in the last two quarters of the year, including banking, residential real estate, and import-export groups (textiles, seafood, wood products).

In fact, in recent months, the strategy of buying stocks at the lower end of the accumulation channel around 1,240-1,250 points and taking profits when the VN-index touches the upper end of the accumulation channel at 1,290-1,300 points has been effective.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/goc-nhin-ttck-tuan-4-811-tiep-dien-xu-huong-giang-co-d229087.html