Mr. Macron's call for Europe to be resilient in the face of the risk of "withdrawal" is considered convincing by many, but others believe it is unrealistic.
In a nearly two-hour speech at Sorbonne University in Paris on April 25, French President Emmanuel warned that Europe could "wither" if it did not become more self-reliant and build its own solid defense system. itself, as well as not implementing major economic and trade reforms to compete with China and the US.
Mr. Macron said that the continent was "too slow and lacking in ambition" at a time when the 27-member European Union (EU) needed to become a superpower, firmly protect its own borders and have strong influence. stronger.
The war in Ukraine shows that Europe does not have enough weapons to defend itself if confronted with a power like Russia, according to the French President. He declared that Russia cannot be allowed to win the conflict, and emphasized that a strong army, rapid intervention programs and forces, and self-produced military equipment are essential for Europe.
“These ideas are generally not new, but they bring a greater sense of urgency than Mr. Macron's 2017 statement,” said Georgina Wright, head of the Europe Program at the Montaigne Institute in France.
French President Emmanuel Macron spoke at Sorbonne University, Paris on April 25. Image: AP
In his first speech at Sorbonne University in 2017, Mr. Macron proposed the concept of "European sovereignty", after Britain left the EU and Mr. Donald Trump was elected US president.
Europe has witnessed significant changes since Mr. Macron's call. The Covid-19 pandemic caused Germany to break a long-standing taboo and support the issuance of common European debt. The Russia-Ukraine conflict pushes Europe to increase its defense budget, something Mr. Macron has long called for to reduce dependence on US military power.
“Mr Macron's vision has gained traction because history is moving in that direction. The concept of European sovereignty he introduced in 2017 is a visionary idea, several years ahead of its time," said Celia Belin, senior member at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
The prospect of Mr. Trump, who has always been skeptical of multilateralism, returning to the White House also makes discussions about strengthening European defense power shift from "should it be done or not" to "how should it be done?" ”.
Despite recent disagreements regarding the idea of deploying European forces to Ukraine, German Prime Minister Olaf Scholz's first reaction to Mr. Macron's statement was quite positive.
"France and Germany want Europe to be strong," Mr. Scholz wrote on X, saying that the French President's speech "contains good ideas."
David Cadier, associate professor of international relations at the University of Groningen, agreed that the Ukraine conflict and the scenario of Mr. Trump's re-election showed that Mr. Macron's call for increased defense capacity and European sovereignty was respectable.
Cadier added that some countries that were skeptical of these ideas are gradually being convinced. Czech President Petr Pavel several months ago also echoed Mr. Macron's calls.
“I believe Mr. Macron's vision will eventually gain traction. Mr. Macron is one of the few leaders with a strategic vision on defense, national security and Europe. The rest only think about their own national interests or still deny those ideas," Caroline De Gruyther, European foreign affairs reporter for NRC in the Netherlands, said.
President Macron supports the establishment of a European "rapid reaction" force of about 5.000 troops to deal with crises and is expected to officially operate in 2025. He also called for the establishment of a military academy. Europe to improve coordination between the militaries of countries in the region.
De Gruyter said that the French leadership has finally lost the "illusion about the security umbrella" of the United States for Europe. “He does not want to wait until Washington cuts its commitments and believes that Europe should prepare itself,” the commentator said.
However, many other experts did not appreciate the French leader's speech. John R. Deni, a professor at the Institute of Strategic Studies at the US Army War College, said that Mr. Macron's vision of European defense is unlikely to gain traction for three reasons.
First, although Mr. Macron has changed his stance from supporting Russia to supporting Ukraine, Deni believes that it is still necessary to consider whether the French President has taken actual action or just stopped at rhetoric. He questioned why France hinders ammunition procurement outside Europe, when it is clear that the bloc has not met its commitments to Ukraine over the past many months.
“Why does France still seem to lag so far behind other countries in the region in terms of aid to Ukraine?”, Deni said.
Statistics last month on the website of the French Ministry of Defense showed that the total value of military equipment this country transferred to Ukraine was more than 2,6 billion euros (about 2,8 billion USD). France also contributed nearly 1,3 billion USD to the European Peace Fund. France also helps train about 10.000 Ukrainian soldiers in Poland and France.
Meanwhile, Germany has provided more than 22 billion euros ($23,5 billion) in support to Ukraine in the humanitarian, financial and military fields. Britain has also pledged at least 12 billion euros in aid to Ukraine.
Mr. Macron has improved relations with Central European countries, but France has not yet committed to strengthening deterrence on NATO's eastern flank, which borders Ukraine and Russia. This is considered the second reason why Professor Deni believes that the concepts that Mr. Macron introduced are "easier said than done".
This expert emphasized that the Ukraine conflict has exposed gaps in the European defense industry after years of lack of investment. The industry remains highly nationalized and fragmented, hindering Europe's ambitions to increase its domestic weapons production and its efforts to develop its defense capabilities.
French soldiers participating in a NATO mission in Rukla, Lithuania in 2018. Photo: AFP
Martin Ehl, director of analysis at Hospodarske Noviny in Slovakia, is also not too optimistic about French leaders' ideas of building a self-reliant Europe. Ehl believes that countries like Hungary could hinder that vision because of their close relationship with Russia, while some countries will prioritize their own economic interests and be difficult to persuade to change their stance.
Common defense is the biggest of all the challenges facing the EU today, according to Federico Fabbrini, a professor of European law at Dublin City University in Ireland.
"The war in Ukraine has exposed the EU's weaknesses in this area and the dependence of member states on the US," said Professor Fabbrini.
As a politician with a clear vision of the future of European integration, President Macron has anticipated challenges and promoted military cooperation. However, France's defense policy ideas are often considered "hegemonic", making EU partners hesitant.
Some other experts believe that Mr. Macron's "awakening" Europe speech is an effort to strengthen his moderate Renaissance party, currently ranked second in the latest public opinion poll and behind the Front party. The nation is led by Jordan Bardella.
A longstanding barrier to keeping the far right from power, built on the belief that it was a danger to the republic, collapsed after the National Front became the largest opposition force in parliament France. Mr. Bardella's themes, including anti-immigration, the need for great security and fighting inflation, have received the response of a large number of French voters.
“Never before have citizens been so removed from decisions that have a tangible impact on their daily lives,” Mr. Bardella said at a press conference on April 25, describing Mr. Macron's speech as mere “self-caressing words”.
Thanh Tam (Follow AP, AFP, Carnegie Europe)
