India is not the "new China".

The Riedel research team asserts that the Indian economy has its own path and could “enjoy years of very high growth”.

Workers are seen working at a construction site for the Coastal Road Project in Mumbai, India.

Speaking to CNBC , David Riedel, CEO of Riedel Research Group, said he is “very optimistic” about India – a country that “is doing all the right things and has a very high chance of exceeding expectations in the next 6 to 24 months.”

Mr. Riedel personally “certainly prefers India to China,” and the South Asian nation is not the “new China.” Given that the world’s second-largest economy is far larger than India’s, this is a notable shift. India itself is a “very different country” from China today as it was in the past.

According to Riedel, India is successfully navigating the middle-income growth trap through various tools, such as monetization and digitalization of the economy, as well as structural changes in taxation.

The middle-income trap refers to the situation where a national economy has crossed the low-income threshold to become a middle-income country, but then gets stuck at that level, unable to move up to the ranks of high-income countries.

Therefore, the land of the Ganges "has the opportunity to enjoy years of very high growth, and I think that's something investors should look for," Riedel emphasized.

Last December, S&P Global and Morgan Stanley predicted that India would surpass Japan and Germany to become the world's third-largest economy by the end of this decade.

Some bright spots in the Indian economy can be found in the software outsourcing and finance sectors.

Manish Chokhani, Director of Enam Holdings, affirmed: “This is truly a decade of expansion for Indian financial services. The entire mutual fund business, the private sector banking business… they really have a decade of growth ahead.”

Meanwhile, China's growth trajectory may no longer be as rosy as it once was.

Riedel predicted that the world's second-largest economy would not grow as strongly in the next five years as it has in the past five years, citing headwinds such as high urban unemployment among young people and the increasing shift of supply chains away from China.

In May, China's youth unemployment rate rose to a record high of 20.8% for those aged 16 to 24.

China has also recently recorded a series of weaker-than-expected economic data, suggesting a slowdown in growth. Factory activity in June marked another contraction, while non-manufacturing activity was at its weakest level since Beijing abandoned its strict "no Covid-19" policy late last year.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/an-do-khong-phai-la-trung-quoc-moi-233213.html