Downward price pressure remains.

The domestic pepper market is experiencing turbulent times with continuously falling prices. Accordingly, today, October 15, 2024, pepper prices in key producing regions such as Dak Lak, Gia Lai, and Binh Phuoc are trading around 143,000 – 144,000 VND/kg, with the highest prices in Dak Lak and Dak Nong at 144,000 VND/kg. This price drop is causing concern among pepper growers and raising many questions about the future outlook for pepper prices.

To conduct a more in-depth analysis of the domestic pepper market trends and forecast pepper prices for tomorrow, October 16, 2024, we need to consider several key influencing factors.

The global pepper market is facing competitive pressure from Indonesia and Brazil. According to updates from the International Pepper Association (IPC), at the close of the most recent trading session, Indonesian Lampung black pepper reached US$6,744/ton, a slight increase of 0.18%, while Muntok white pepper reached US$9,233/ton, an increase of 2.5%. However, the prices of Brazilian ASTA 570 black pepper and Malaysian ASTA black pepper are trending downwards. The slight increase in Lampung black pepper prices may be a positive sign, but it is not enough to create upward momentum for the Vietnamese pepper market. This is because Brazilian ASTA black pepper prices are competitive with Vietnamese prices, while the slight decrease in Malaysian ASTA black pepper prices adds to market instability.

Pepper price forecast for October 16, 2024: Downward pressure remains.

Pepper exports to China are also showing signs of decline. Statistics from the Chinese Customs Administration show that in August 2024, China's pepper imports reached 890 tons, worth US$5.8 million, a decrease of 54.7% in volume and 36.8% in value compared to the previous month. Although China's pepper imports in the first eight months of the year increased by 21.9% in volume and 41% in value compared to the same period in 2023, imports from Vietnam decreased significantly, reaching only 2,329 tons, an increase of 7.2% compared to the same period. The reasons for this decline may stem from several factors, including price competition from Indonesia. Indonesia is in its harvest season, leading to abundant supply and more competitive prices. The decrease in demand from the Chinese market is also a noteworthy factor.

Vietnam's pepper exports are also facing difficulties with a sharp decline. According to the latest figures from the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association, Vietnam's pepper exports to China in the first nine months of the year (including official and unofficial trade) reached 8,905 tons, a sharp decrease of 84.1% compared to the same period last year. This sharp decline indicates a weakening of the Chinese pepper market for Vietnamese pepper. Besides price competition from Indonesia, the trend of shifting to other supply sources is also affecting Vietnam's pepper exports.

Based on current market information, it can be predicted that pepper prices tomorrow, October 16, 2024, will continue their slight downward trend. Downward pressure from the global market will continue to impact domestic pepper prices. Pepper exports to China still show no signs of recovery, while imported pepper from Indonesia is more competitive. Domestic consumption demand shows no signs of growth.

However, it should be noted that pepper prices can fluctuate due to many other factors, so close monitoring is necessary to make appropriate decisions.

Given the current challenges, pepper growers need to be flexible in their production and business operations, while also seeking solutions to improve productivity and product value, contributing to the maintenance and development of Vietnam's pepper industry.

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