Bitcoin is projected to reach $100,000 in 2024.

VnExpress•01/01/2024

After doubling in value last year, Bitcoin could benefit from the halving event and ETF approvals, pushing the price to $100,000 this year, according to experts.

Bitcoin experienced a massive price surge in 2023, with the cryptocurrency increasing by approximately 152% during the year, surpassing $40,000. This recovery was seen as positive after a challenging 2022 marked by the collapse of several well-known cryptocurrencies and projects, liquidity issues, and business bankruptcies.

FTX – once one of the world's largest cryptocurrency exchanges – filed for bankruptcy in 2022, costing users billions of dollars. In 2023, founder Sam Bankman-Fried was convicted of seven counts related to defrauding users, potentially facing up to 115 years in prison. Also that year, Binance's Changpeng Zhao (CZ) pleaded guilty to criminal charges of violating anti-money laundering regulations and subsequently resigned as CEO. The exchange faced a potential fine of $4.3 billion.

Although 2023 saw two incidents involving industry leaders, observers still view it as an opportunity to move forward and draw a line between legitimate and unethical practices, thereby increasing market transparency. They are anticipating two factors that will create momentum this year: the Bitcoin "halving" and the potential approval of a Bitcoin ETF in the US.

Bitcoin halving is a quadrennial event that halves the rewards for miners. This helps maintain the supply limit of 21 million units. In previous cycles, halvings were typically accompanied by a Bitcoin price surge.

Meanwhile, there is growing excitement about the scenario where the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will approve the first Bitcoin ETF after years of opposition. This would allow investors to inject money into the market without having to directly hold or trade it. The market is hoping this will attract more investors, especially large institutional investors.

The Bitcoin logo – the world's largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, with approximately $830 billion at the end of 2023. Photo: CNBC

Based on these two factors, fund manager Mark Mobius predicts Bitcoin could reach $60,000 per unit this year. Back in 2022, he accurately predicted the cryptocurrency would fall to $20,000 when it was still trading above $28,000. In 2023, he predicted a price of $10,000, but that did not materialize.

Mobius said the world's largest cryptocurrency could reach $60,000 by the end of this year. "Having a Bitcoin ETF would increase market interest in cryptocurrencies," he stated.

Offering a more optimistic forecast of $75,000 , Youwei Yang, chief economist at cryptocurrency mining company Bit Mining, believes Bitcoin will trade in the range of $25,000-$75,000 in 2024. In 2025, the range will be $45,000-$130,000.

"Although high prices may occur, not all investors will profit due to the high market volatility and the FOMO (fear of missing out) mentality of many," he warned.

Meanwhile, leading European digital asset management firm CoinShares forecasts a price of $80,000 . Head of research James Butterfill stated that the digital asset landscape will undergo a "significant shift" in 2024, due to the potential approval of US Bitcoin ETFs. He believes this is a step towards closer integration of cryptocurrencies with traditional financial markets.

This unit estimates that if approximately $3 billion is injected, the price of this currency will soon reach $80,000. Furthermore, the scenario of central banks cutting interest rates could also "play a decisive role" in pushing the market price higher.

Standard Chartered, an investment bank, predicts a market value of $100,000 . This forecast, made last November, is double the prediction from six months prior. The bank also believes that the approval of numerous ETFs and the "halving" event will stimulate the market.

Similarly, Carol Alexander, a finance professor at the University of Sussex (UK), also predicted a price range of $100,000. In 2022, she was quite successful in predicting a Bitcoin price drop to $10,000. That year, the cryptocurrency fell to its lowest point of around $15,480. In 2023, Alexander stated that Bitcoin would rise to $50,000, and in reality, the cryptocurrency reached its highest point of the year at around $44,700 in early December.

The professor predicted that in the first quarter of the year, Bitcoin would trade around $40,000-$55,000 as "professional traders (whales) create volatility." The next phase will depend on when the SEC resolves the lawsuits with Coinbase and Binance, which could be done before approving the Bitcoin ETF. After that, the price of the cryptocurrency will rise to $70,000, a new all-time high.

The future price will depend on the ability of ETF providers, such as Blackrock and Fidelity, to prevent price manipulation. According to Alexander, Bitcoin's price could surpass $100,000 before the end of 2024, but only if Blackrock and Fidelity are able to protect investors participating in their ETFs.

Xiao Gu (according to CNBC )

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