With packed schedules, arranging a 30-minute meeting these days is no easy feat for many leaders of think tanks in the US.
Influential forces
Meeting with me, the head of an American think tank shared: "From November 4th until the end of the week, I didn't have a single moment to rest. I had to work continuously with donors on developments and scenarios for the US election."
The south side of the White House just before the official election day.
Think tanks receive funding from organizations and individuals to operate, conducting research and providing policy advice to governments, businesses, and other organizations both within and outside the United States. In addition, some think tanks act as lobbying organizations, serving as "pillars" for politicians and political parties in the US. In these cases, think tanks must actively support political factions throughout the election process.
I had arranged to have breakfast with him at 8:30 a.m. at the Cosmos Club – a Washington D.C. elite hangout spot – but a former high-ranking U.S. official working for a think tank had to rush to get going. He had only returned to Washington D.C. the previous night after days of traveling around. And with the election still looming, the schedules of people like him will be incredibly hectic, even if they no longer work in government.
Currently, the US has over 2,200 think tanks, more than double the number in the country in the 1980s. Theoretically, think tanks generate new ideas for policymaking, evaluate existing policies, draw attention to neglected issues, bring together experts for discussion, and engage with the media. They also participate in political advocacy efforts.
However, there are also allegations that much of the policy advocacy by think tanks is conducted clandestinely in closed, informal, and non-public meetings. Such allegations suggest a potential risk to policymakers if they adopt the think tanks' views. In other words, these allegations raise concerns about think tanks manipulating policy.
For example, in August, the UK-based investigative journalism organization CCR (The Centre for Climate Reporting) released footage containing a conversation with Russell Vought, a co-author of Project 2025. A prominent figure on the right wing, Vought previously led the Office of Management and Budget (a White House agency) under President Donald Trump.
In the video, Vought reveals his behind-the-scenes work preparing policy if former President Trump returns to the White House. More specifically, he reveals that the policy would expand presidential power while tightening immigration. The expert even asserts that his team is secretly drafting hundreds of executive orders, regulations, and memos to lay the groundwork for swift action on former President Trump's plans if he wins the election, and describes his work as creating "shadow" agencies for the White House should Trump return to leadership.
Of course, the Democratic Party also has its own "friendly" think tanks. Therefore, when the election takes place, these think tanks also engage in fierce competition behind the scenes.
Extending until after the election.
Meanwhile, many think tanks that don't have direct interests tied to political factions in the US, but instead advocate for businesses or foreign entities, will have to pursue other activities.
A polling station in Arlington County (Virginia)
"From now on, we have to assess the scenarios regarding the election results. After the official election results are available, we must consider the potential candidates for positions in the cabinet of the next US President, thereby predicting upcoming policies." This was shared by the head of a department at a think tank specializing in European relations with the US as well as cooperation within NATO.
According to assessments, if former President Donald Trump wins, it is highly likely that a new "team" will be brought into the White House, as members of his team from the 2017-2021 term are unlikely to return after many former subordinates have criticized him. For this reason, many predict that if Trump wins the election, the new cabinet will prioritize those with high loyalty, meaning that Trump's policies may not necessarily remain consistent with those of the 2017-2021 term.
Conversely, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the election, the cabinet's structure remains an unknown quantity that many are closely watching. While incumbent President Joe Biden has half a century of foreign policy experience, Harris has relatively little foreign policy experience. Furthermore, Harris is considered a younger generation in American politics, meaning her approach to international issues will differ from her predecessor's. Therefore, while the overall foreign policy direction may remain unchanged, the methods of implementation could significantly alter. The nature of these changes will largely depend on the cabinet members if she wins the election.
All of this will force think tanks and diplomats from various countries to closely monitor developments, formulate scenarios, and calculate future US policy directions. Thus, the race will continue even after the election results are finalized and may even extend until the end of January 2025.
Conspiracy theory warning
Election officials across the United States—particularly in "battleground" states—have pledged to uphold the integrity of the vote and urged voters not to be misled by conspiracy theories.
"In Georgia, voting is easy, but cheating is difficult. Our system is secure, and our people are ready," Georgia state official Brad Raffensperger emphasized on November 4th.
Prior to the official election day, former President Donald Trump and many Republican politicians accused the vote of being "rigged." Trump repeatedly made (allegedly false) claims that the Democratic Party was rigging the election. He was also accused of "distorting" individual voting issues in an attempt to make his supporters believe the election would be illegitimate if he lost.
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/nuoc-my-giua-cuoc-dua-vao-nha-trang-cuoc-dua-quyet-liet-o-hau-truong-185241105233520042.htm
