The Forward Party finds it difficult to… move forward.

The verdict before the "deadline"

The Constitutional Court of Thailand has suspended Pita Limjaroenrat, a prime ministerial candidate and leader of the Forward Party, from parliament . The decision came after the court heard a case alleging that Pita Limjaroenrat was ineligible to run in the May 14 general election because he held shares in a media company, violating election rules.

Pita Limjaroenrat faces immense pressure following the ruling by the Thai Constitutional Court. Photo: CNN

Mr. Pita has repeatedly argued that he did not violate any rules by owning shares in the media company iTV because the company had not engaged in mass media activities for many years. However, with the latest ruling, it appears the Forward Party leader's arguments failed to convince the judges. Mr. Pita will have 15 days to appeal.

Pita's Forward Party won a resounding victory in this year's Thai general election, making the 42-year-old politician the sole candidate for the Thai prime ministership, replacing Prayut Chan-o-cha, who announced his retirement from politics on July 11.

According to regulations, Mr. Pita would need to go through a vote in Parliament and secure 376 out of 750 votes in both the Senate and the House of Representatives to become Prime Minister of Thailand. However, in the vote held on July 14th, he did not garner the necessary number of votes. Only 324 MPs supported him, including a mere 13 out of 249 senators.

With this result, the Thai Parliament is expected to hold a rerun of the election on July 19 and 20. It is unclear whether the Constitutional Court ruling will disrupt the Thai Parliament's voting plans, while lawmakers are still debating Pita's nomination at their most recent meeting on July 13.

According to regulations, a candidate for Prime Minister of Thailand does not necessarily have to be a member of parliament, but observers believe that the suspension of Pita Limjaroenrat's status as a legislator would still have a certain impact on the outcome of the votes if the election were held at this time.

Does Mr. Pita still have a chance?

According to Thai media, police lined up outside the parliament building after news broke that Pita had been suspended from his parliamentary seat. Political commentators in Thailand believe the Constitutional Court's decision could trigger large-scale street protests, given the widespread support the Forward Party enjoys across the country.

This party won the most seats and the most votes in this year's Thai general election by campaigning for bold reforms that would challenge large businesses, end compulsory military service, remove the military's influence from politics, and reform the country's lèse-majesté law.

However, the Forward Party faces numerous obstacles. Besides legal troubles, Pita also faces strong opposition from many senators regarding reforms to the lèse-majesté law – a law designed to protect the dignity of the Thai monarchy, and one that carries a potential prison sentence of up to 15 years for criticizing the monarchy.

Faced with opposition from conservative MPs, the Forward Party formed an alliance with seven other parties, including Pheu Thai, Prachachat, Thai Sang Thai, Seri Ruam Thai, Fair, Pue Thai Rumphlang, and Plung Sungkom Mai, hoping to secure the necessary votes in the Thai parliamentary elections.

However, this plan did not help the Forward Party win the first election on July 14th. According to Thai media, if the second vote for the Thai Prime Minister is postponed to another date, the Pheu Thai Party, which came second in the recent general election and is in a coalition with the Forward Party, will have the opportunity to nominate its candidate.

Who will be the next candidate?

According to observers, if Mr. Pita is unable to run, the Pheu Thai Party will nominate Mr. Srettha Thavisin, a real estate tycoon and advisor to Ms. Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Another potential candidate is Mr. Chaikasem Nitisiri, Head of the Pheu Thai Party's Strategy and Political Direction Department.

Srettha Thavisin could be nominated by the Pheu Thai Party as the Prime Minister's candidate if Pita Limjaroenrat fails to overturn the ruling. (Photo: Bangkok Post)

In another scenario, the Bangkok Post suggests that the Pheu Thai Party might "change course" and join forces with the conservatives to form a new coalition, which would, of course, exclude the Forward Party if Pita fails to overturn the Constitutional Court ruling.

Many Thai scholars also predicted the risk of defeat for Mr. Pita and the Forward Party in the second round of the Prime Minister's election in Parliament. Dr. Wanwichit Boonprong, a political science lecturer at Rangsit University, told the Bangkok Post that the chances of Forward Party leader Pita becoming the new Prime Minister had sharply decreased before the second round of voting. “Before the first round of voting on July 13th, the chances were less than 50%, but now it’s only 30%,” said Dr. Wanwichit.

Sharing the same view, Dr. Thinbangtieo, a political science lecturer from Burapha University in Thailand, also told the Bangkok Post that Mr. Pita has very little chance of becoming Prime Minister in the second round of voting because most senators are dissatisfied with him. Dr. Thinbangtieo said, "Mr. Pita's chances now are only 30%."

Nguyen Khanh

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/ong-pita-bi-dinh-chi-tu-cach-nghi-si-thai-lan-dang-tien-len-kho-tien-len-post256915.html