What caused coffee prices to break all records?

Coffee crop failures and concerns about future supply have caused coffee prices to skyrocket, potentially reaching $6,000 per ton soon.

Early morning on September 27th (Vietnam time), Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London, UK) closed at $5,527 per ton, $81 per ton higher than the previous day's closing price for the November delivery contract. This is the highest price in the history of Robusta coffee on this exchange, breaking a number of previous records.

For the January 2025 delivery contract, Robusta coffee prices increased even more sharply, by $90/ton, reaching $5,242/ton.

For the March 2025 delivery contract, Robusta coffee prices increased by $93/ton, reaching $5,029/ton.

A quick exchange with a newspaper reporter. Workers On the morning of September 27th, Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of the Buon Me Thuot Coffee Association ( Dak Lak province), stated that the main reason for the sharp increase in coffee prices, especially Robusta, is still the shortage of supply in major producing countries such as Brazil, Vietnam, and Indonesia.

Robusta coffee prices could reach $6,000 per ton.

In particular, in Vietnam, while production in previous years was typically around 30-31 million bags (each bag weighing 60 kg), this past season it dropped to only 27.5 million bags, and is expected to continue decreasing as farmers tend to switch to crops with higher economic value, such as durian.

The 2024-2025 coffee crop, which is about to be harvested, is facing drought. Rain only came in May and June, but the rain was insufficient, preventing the coffee beans from growing properly and inevitably leading to a reduction in yield.

"The coffee shortage is real, driving up coffee prices. These factors cannot be resolved in the short term, so coffee prices may only peak next year, at $6,000 per ton," Mr. Minh predicted.

Mr. Minh also added that the current coffee market is actively influenced by speculators, causing market prices to often fluctuate outside the normal supply and demand patterns.

In the domestic market, prices are currently fluctuating only slightly, ranging from 120,000 to 125,000 VND/kg, and there are very few transactions due to the depletion of old crop supplies and the scarcity of new crop coffee, as the peak harvest season is not until November.

Source