UBS predicts the US dollar will continue to depreciate due to narrowing interest rate differentials, concerns about the ongoing US fiscal deficit, and shifts in global central bank strategies.
Despite a brief price surge, UBS downgraded the USD to "least favored," while upgrading the euro, British pound, and Australian dollar.
According to Bitcoin News, UBS, a Swiss multinational investment bank and financial services company, has just released a report stating that the US dollar is likely to continue depreciating.
The report stated: "We believe the US dollar will continue to decline in the coming months for a number of reasons."
Although the dollar experienced a brief rally following the revised second-quarter US GDP growth figures – rising to 3% year-on-year from 2.8% – and stronger consumer spending data, the dollar remains vulnerable, UBS noted.
The US dollar index (DXY) has fallen 3% over the past month, remaining near its lowest level within its range since the beginning of 2023.
UBS analysts stressed that "the risk balance for the USD appears to be skewed toward the downside," suggesting that even positive inflation or labor market data is unlikely to prevent the Federal Reserve from potentially cutting interest rates in September, especially if these indicators fall short of expectations.
According to UBS, several factors are poised to put further pressure on the USD. The Swiss financial services firm points out that "interest rate spreads appear likely to narrow," as central banks such as the Swiss National Bank and the European Central Bank are expected to adopt more gradual approaches to interest rate cuts compared to the Federal Reserve.
Furthermore, UBS emphasized that "the US fiscal deficit remains a concern," highlighting the long-term risks to the dollar.
In response to these developments, UBS's Principal Investment Office adjusted its global strategy: "In this context, we recently downgraded the USD to the least favored level in our global strategy and moved the euro, British pound, and Australian dollar to the most favored level. We expect all of these currencies to regain ground against the USD within our forecast timeframe," the report added.
Source: https://laodong.vn/kinh-doanh/du-bao-dong-usd-tiep-tiep-suy-yeu-1388225.ldo
Comment (0)