Coffee prices are still "peaking" and increasing rapidly?

Coffee prices are forecasted to continue to rise on May 24, 2024, as the coffee market is experiencing many fluctuations. A series of complex factors such as weather patterns, production forecasts, export trends, and inventory levels are all affecting coffee prices.

Vietnam's Robusta coffee output in the 2024/25 crop year could reach just 24 million bags, a 13-year low, as lack of rain causes "irreparable damage," coffee trader Volcafe said on Monday.

Volcafe also forecasts a global robusta deficit of 4.6 million bags in 2024/25. While this is smaller than the 9 million bag deficit in 2023/24, it would be the fourth consecutive year of robusta deficit.

One of these is the rise in the use of coffee as a natural source of energy in the morning, which has led to increased demand. If this trend continues, it could lead to further increases in coffee prices. This will be a key point that commodity traders will want to keep an eye on in 2024.

In addition, according to the market forecast on May 24, 2024, the world coffee price on online trading floors suddenly turned down sharply. Mr. Trinh Duc Minh, Chairman of Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association (Dak Lak province), pointed out 4 reasons for the cooling down of the world coffee price.

Firstly, when the May delivery period ends and moves to July, the parties holding the goods often sell strongly, causing the price to fall. Secondly, the Brazilian currency (BRL) is falling compared to the USD, which has stimulated coffee exporters from the world's number 1 coffee supplier to export.

Third, news of early rains in coffee growing areas in Vietnam and Brazil has eased some of the concerns about a severe crop failure in the coming season. Fourth, news of higher-than-normal stockpiles on the market has eased concerns about a coffee shortage.

Domestic coffee prices skyrocket

Domestic coffee prices today, May 23, 2024, domestic coffee prices increased from 4,000 to 4,600 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 110,100 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 110,400 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai and Kon Tum provinces is at 109,800 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 110,400 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 109,000 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 109,900 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 110,000 VND/kg.

World coffee prices suddenly dropped

London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

In addition, the online coffee prices today of the three coffee exchanges suddenly decreased. Updated world coffee prices at 20:40 on May 23, 2024 Vietnam time on the London exchange, Robusta coffee prices turned down in terms, fluctuating at 3523 - 3822 USD/ton.

Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for July 2024 delivery on the London floor was at 3,822 USD/ton, up or down 95 USD/ton compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for September 2024 was 3,732 USD/ton, down 112 USD; the delivery term for November 2024 was 3,646 USD/ton, down 92 USD and the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,523 USD/ton, down 109 USD.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 8:40 p.m. on May 23, 2024, simultaneously decreased sharply in all terms, fluctuating at 212.55 - 215.50 cents/lb.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery period is 215.50 cents/lb; down 4.95 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The September 2024 delivery period is 214.50 cents/lb, down 4.75 cents/lb; the December 2024 delivery period is 213.20 cents/lb, down 4.70 cents/lb and the March 2025 delivery period is 212.55 cents/lb, down 4.30 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee at 20:40 on May 23, 2024 had mixed increases and decreases at trading terms compared to the beginning of the session, ranging from 262.70 - 276.15 USD/ton.

Specifically, the delivery period for May 2024 is 276.15 USD/ton, an increase of 4.30 USD. The delivery period for July 2024 is 262.40 USD/ton, a decrease of 4.45 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session; the delivery period for September 2024 is 260.00 USD/ton, a decrease of 4.45 USD and the delivery period for March 2025 is 262.70 USD/ton, an increase of 4.15 USD.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, it will be open from 19:00 - 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

Rabobank predicts a coffee surplus of 4.5 million bags for the upcoming 2024/25 marketing year, up sharply from the 500,000-bag surplus expected for 2023/24. On the bright side, Rabobank has reduced its 2023/24 production forecast by 3.9 million bags to 171.1 million, largely due to downward revisions to production by Indonesia and Honduras.

USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts that MY2023/24 ending stocks will decline 4.0% to 26.5 million bags from 27.6 million bags in MY2022-23. USDA's FAS projects that MY2023/24 arabica coffee production in Brazil will increase 12.8% year-on-year to 44.9 million bags due to higher yields and increased planted area. USDA's FAS also forecasts that MY2023/24 coffee production in Colombia, the world's second-largest arabica coffee producer, will increase 7.5% year-on-year to 11.5 million bags.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-2452024-gia-ca-phe-con-lap-dinh-tang-vun-vut-321960.html