According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), after three consecutive sessions of weakness, the global raw materials market returned to an upward trend yesterday, with green spreading across most commodity groups, pushing the MXV-Index up nearly 0.7% to 2,225 points.
Notably, the industrial raw materials group saw a sharp increase in coffee prices across the board amid growing concerns about potential supply shortages.
In the metals group, optimistic sentiment regarding the outlook for demand in China continued to fuel iron ore prices, helping the commodity extend its winning streak to a fifth consecutive session.
At the close of yesterday's trading session, the industrial raw materials market witnessed strong buying pressure with 7 out of 9 commodities simultaneously increasing in price; in particular, the price of Arabica coffee for December delivery rose by 3% to $8,484/ton, while the price of Robusta coffee also recorded an increase of more than 2.8% to $4,430/ton.
The global coffee market is facing a shortage of Arabica coffee in the 2025-2026 crop year.
According to the latest report from Conab, production of this type of coffee has decreased by more than 4 million bags (equivalent to 11.2%), to just over 35 million bags. This drop is equivalent to one-third of the Arabica production of Colombia, the second-largest producer, which the US Department of Agriculture had projected at 12.5 million bags.
If this scenario materializes, the market will face the reality that no single country will be able to fill this supply gap in the global market.
In addition, the outlook for Brazil's coffee production in the 2026-2027 season is also raising concerns in the market, as the country has just experienced unprecedented weather phenomena in its main growing regions, the worst in at least four years.
According to research by the Cerrado Coffee Exporters Cooperative (Expocacer), the frost that occurred on August 11th could reduce the potential production of the next crop by about 5.5%, equivalent to a loss of approximately 412,000 bags of coffee.
Nevertheless, the upward trend in coffee prices was somewhat curbed after US President Donald Trump recently signed an executive order reducing reciprocal tariffs to 0% on many items that the US cannot produce, extract, or meet its domestic needs.
Accordingly, coffee is included in the list of products proposed for tax exemption, which will help to somewhat curb the rising price of this commodity in the international market.
In the domestic market, the Vietnam Customs Department reported that coffee exports in August increased by 11% compared to the same period last year, reaching 84,000 tons. However, cumulatively in the first 11 months of the current coffee crop year (from October 2024 to September 2025), the amount of coffee exported was recorded as 45,500 tons lower than the same period last year, with a total volume of 1.3 million bags.
In addition, the Vietnam Statistics Office also reported that the value of coffee exports in the first eight months of 2025 reached approximately US$6.5 billion, a sharp increase of 61.1% compared to the same period last year.
Regarding production, by the end of August, the new coffee harvest in the Central Highlands region had only just begun in some provinces with early harvests, but the output was still very limited.
The main crop is expected to start in late October and be harvested in November. End-of-season stocks are showing signs of tightening. Coffee trading in the first week of the month was somewhat sluggish, with farmer dealers temporarily suspending sales, waiting to see how prices develop, while warehouses showed no clear buying activity.
Meanwhile, following the general market trend, the metals sector also saw gains across most of its key commodities.
Notably, iron ore prices continued their upward trend yesterday, rising 0.55% to $105.42 per ton – the highest level since the end of February, marking a five-session winning streak.
The main driver came from market expectations regarding consumption prospects in China, which imported over 105.2 million tons in August, a slight increase from July.
Analysts believe this increase in imports is aimed at preparing raw materials for the production phase after many steel mills temporarily reduced capacity ahead of the September 3rd parade in response to the government's emissions reduction requirements.
In addition, this optimistic sentiment is further bolstered by expectations that Beijing will introduce more infrastructure investment stimulus measures to support growth, thereby boosting demand for steel and raw materials such as iron ore.
However, actual demand has not really picked up, as iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased by nearly 1.2 million tons to 131.5 million tons in the week ending September 5, indicating that the majority of new imports are still sitting in storage.
Conversely, the risk of price correction remains present as the macroeconomic picture in China has not shown significant improvement.
The real estate sector continues to be sluggish, with new home sales by the top 100 companies in August down 17.6% year-on-year in 2024, while the manufacturing PMI stood at 49.4 points – contracting for five consecutive months.
In Vietnam, the fact that international iron ore prices have remained above $100/ton throughout the past month has contributed to the increase in domestic steel prices since September 8th, with CB240 coiled steel reaching 13.5 million VND/ton and D10 CB300 ribbed steel bars reaching 13.09 million VND/ton.
In terms of trade, August saw iron and steel imports reach over 1.3 million tons, a 17% increase compared to the previous month, while exports decreased by 17.5% to approximately 654,000 tons.
Source: https://baolaocai.vn/gia-ca-phe-dao-chieu-tang-manh-post881636.html
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