Will coffee prices rise again?

Coffee prices on August 1st, 2024, in the domestic market are forecast to slightly increase. Since the beginning of the year, the Vietnamese agricultural market has seen many positive developments. According to a report from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , in the first half of the year, the export value of major agricultural products reached US$15.76 billion, an increase of 24.4% compared to the same period last year. Of these, seven products and product groups exceeded US$1 billion: coffee, rubber, rice, fruits and vegetables, and cashew nuts.

Among these, coffee stands out as the most prominent product with exceptional growth. In the first six months of the year, Vietnam exported 902,000 tons of coffee, earning $3.22 billion. Although export volume decreased by 10.5%, value increased by 34.6% thanks to an 80% increase in coffee prices compared to the same period last year. With high prices and strong global market demand, coffee exports this year are expected to break last year's record.

Coffee price forecast for August 1, 2024: Will coffee prices rise again?

In the domestic market, as of 4:30 AM on July 31, 2024, according to www.giacaphe.com, domestic coffee prices decreased slightly by 500 VND compared to yesterday, ranging from 123,000 to 123,600 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 123,400 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province at 123,600 VND/kg.

Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 123,300 VND/kg, in Pleiku and La Grai it is 123,200 VND/kg; in Kon Tum province coffee is purchased at 123,300 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province coffee is purchased at the highest price of 123,600 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) is 123,000 VND/kg.

Coffee prices in Dak Lak province today, July 31st, decreased slightly by 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday; in Cu M'gar district, coffee was purchased at approximately 123,400 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it was purchased at the same rate of 123,300 VND/kg.

London Robusta coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

World coffee prices updated at 8:45 PM on July 31, 2024 (Vietnam time) on the London exchange: Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was 4,242 USD/ton, down 24 USD from the beginning of the trading session. The November 2024 delivery contract was 4,099 USD/ton, down 19 USD; the January 2025 delivery contract was 3,950 USD/ton, down 19 USD; and the March 2025 delivery contract was 3,827 USD/ton, down 16 USD.

New York Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York exchange today, at 8:45 PM on July 31, 2024, decreased across all contract periods, fluctuating between 225.55 and 230.30 cents/lb.

Specifically, the September 2024 delivery contract was 230.30 cents/lb, down 0.50 cents/lb from the start of the session. The December 2024 contract was 229.05 cents/lb, down 0.55 cents/lb; the March 2025 contract was 227.70 cents/lb, down 0.60 cents/lb; and the May 2025 contract was 225.55 cents/lb, down 0.65 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices today, at 8:45 PM on July 31, 2024, showed a slight increase. Specifically, the September 2024 delivery contract was $290.00/ton (up 0.47%); the December 2024 contract was $283.80/ton (up 0.41%); the March 2025 contract was $278.45/ton (up 0.07%); and the May 2025 contract was $275.05/ton.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York) exchange opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, trading hours will be from 7:00 PM to 2:35 AM (the following day), Vietnam time.

Favorable weather conditions in Vietnam's Central Highlands and Brazil are easing concerns about next crop yields. Brazil's rapid harvesting progress and rising inventories on both exchanges are also contributing factors to the sideways movement of coffee prices.

Technically, both the London and New York markets are currently in a cyclical downturn, and are especially in a period of liquidation of long positions by major market players. For two consecutive weeks, key market participants have been selling heavily to close their long positions. This is the reason for the recent downward cycle in both markets.

As of July 23rd, the latest COT report on trader positions from the New York market indicates that non-commercial speculators reduced their net long positions by 8.63%, registering a new net long position of 43,725 lots. In the London robusta coffee market, fund managers also reduced their net long positions by 3.10%, registering a new net long position of 36,640 lots, equivalent to 6,106,667 bags.

Regarding the main supply sources in the current market, the agricultural finance consulting firm Safras & Mercado estimates that nearly 81% of the new Brazilian coffee crop has been harvested as of July 23rd. This year's harvest is progressing faster compared to the same period last year, which was reported at around 74%. Based on this forecast, the new crop is 66.04 million bags, with approximately 53.49 million bags harvested so far, including about 19.67 million bags of Conilon Robusta coffee, reported to be 95% complete, and about 33.98 million bags of Arabica coffee, 75% complete.

* This information is for reference only.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-182024-gia-ca-phe-lieu-co-tang-tro-lai-336057.html