Robusta coffee prices fell to $5,508 per ton.

At the close of yesterday's trading session, Arabica coffee prices fell 1.78% to $8,526 per ton, while Robusta coffee prices also lost 0.79%, dropping to $5,508 per ton.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), supply and demand played the main role in influencing commodity prices during yesterday's trading session (March 12). In the energy market, the prices of both Brent and WTI crude oil surged amid declining US inventories and increased demand for gasoline and diesel.

In addition, the coffee market is under pressure following news of a decline in global coffee exports. The market experienced a tug-of-war, with the MXV-Index closing slightly higher at 2,284 points, up 0.06%.

MXV-Index

Crude oil prices extended their gains for a second consecutive session.

At the close of trading yesterday, the prices of both crude oil commodities surged after data from the US government showed that oil and fuel inventories fell more than expected.

At the close of trading, Brent crude rose $1.39 (equivalent to 2%) to $70.95 per barrel, while WTI crude rose $1.43 (equivalent to 2.2%) to $67.68 per barrel.

Energy price list

The main driver of the price increase came from the report by the US Energy Information Agency (EIA). According to the EIA, US crude oil inventories increased by only 1.4 million barrels in the most recent week, lower than the 2 million barrels forecast by experts. Notably, gasoline inventories fell sharply by 5.7 million barrels, much higher than the expected decrease of 1.9 million barrels, indicating increasing fuel consumption demand. In addition, the recent weakening of the US dollar also contributed to supporting oil prices.

In addition, geopolitical tensions continue to put pressure on supplies, as Houthi rebels have threatened to continue attacking Israeli ships if Israel does not lift its ban on aid to Gaza.

However, the upward momentum in oil prices is being restrained by concerns that tariffs could increase costs for businesses, fuel inflation, and undermine consumer confidence, impacting economic growth.

Meanwhile, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025. The OPEC report also showed that OPEC+ production increased by 363,000 barrels per day in February, mainly from Kazakhstan, which is lagging in complying with its production quota.

Coffee prices continue to fluctuate.

At the close of trading on March 12th, the industrial raw materials price index closed in the red, with Arabica coffee prices falling 1.78% to $8,526 per ton, and Robusta coffee prices also losing 0.79% to $5,508 per ton. This development occurred amidst a sharp decline in global exports, while ICE inventories showed signs of recovery, raising questions about the actual supply-demand balance of the market.

Industrial raw material price list

Arabica prices have now moved away from their historical peak of $9,676 per ton, set in mid-February 2025. Experts believe that as concerns about drought conditions have been partially reflected in prices, new concerns are shifting to the impact of high prices on global demand.

The latest report from the International Coffee Organization (ICO) shows that global coffee exports in January fell 13.3% to 10.8 million bags, compared to 12.4 million bags in the same period last year. Notably, exports of unroasted green coffee beans decreased 14.2% to 11.32 million bags, marking the third consecutive month of decline. The Arabica segment alone saw a 2.5% decrease to 6.665 million bags, equivalent to a drop of 171,000 bags. The decline in exports reflects supply shortages in major producing countries, but could also indicate weakening demand due to persistently high prices. This presents a difficult dilemma for investors as they must weigh these two opposing factors.

Additionally, inventory data monitored by ICE also showed positive signs, with Arabica coffee stocks reaching 803,032 bags on March 11th. Meanwhile, Robusta stocks also recovered to 4,356 lots, the highest level in the past month.

Information about rising inventories, combined with new forecasts from Marex Solutions, continues to put downward pressure on coffee prices. Marex forecasts a global coffee surplus of 1.2 million bags in the 2025-2026 crop year, significantly higher than the 200,000 bags of the previous crop year. This assessment has made the market more cautious after the previous sharp price increase.

Prices of some other goods