At the end of June 25th, the price of SJC gold bars was listed by businesses at around 143.2 million VND/ounce for buying and 146.2 million VND/ounce for selling - a decrease of 800,000 VND compared to the previous day. Over the past month, each ounce of gold has decreased by more than 15 million VND. Meanwhile, the price of silver bars and silver by the kilogram from domestic brands has also decreased by over 17 million VND/kg.
Constantly fluctuating
According to a reporter from Nguoi Lao Dong newspaper, on the afternoon of the same day, at Saigon Jewelry Company (SJC), SJC gold bars were out of stock, while each customer was limited to purchasing a maximum of 3 taels of gold rings. Transaction activity was not particularly active.
The domestic gold market has mainly experienced price fluctuations. From the beginning of June 2026 until now, the price of both SJC gold bars and gold rings has continuously fluctuated downwards.
Gold prices have been continuously falling recently. Photo: LE TINH
Domestic gold prices fell in line with the sharp decline in global gold prices. On the international market, gold was trading at $3,997 per ounce – down more than $100 per ounce from the previous session. The continuous drop in gold prices has breached support levels at $4,100 and then $4,000 per ounce, and retreated to its lowest level since the end of 2025. From its peak of over $5,600 per ounce in early 2026, gold prices have fallen by approximately 28%.
However, the decline in gold prices has not yet matched the sharp drop in silver prices. World silver prices at the end of June 25th (Vietnam time) were trading at $57.6 per ounce – marking a consecutive week of decline. Since its peak of around $120 per ounce earlier this year, the price of silver has plummeted by 52%.
In the domestic market, the prices of silver bars and silver ingots of various brands have also continued to fall sharply. On the afternoon of June 25th, Sacombank-SBJ Gold and Gemstone Company and many other brands such as Ancarat, Phu Quy, and DOJI traded silver bars at around 2.2 million VND/ounce for buying and 2.3 million VND/ounce for selling – a decrease of 130,000 VND compared to the previous day.
The price of silver by the kilogram also dropped sharply, to only 59.6 million VND/kg for buying and 61.4 million VND/kg for selling - a decrease of more than 6.6 million VND compared to the previous day. Based on the peak price of silver by the kilogram in the domestic market - around 120 million VND, those who bought silver and haven't sold it yet are losing more than 58 million VND per kilogram.
Speaking to reporters, many investors said they were "shocked" to see the current listed prices of gold and silver. Many who had ordered "paper silver"—paying in advance at the beginning of the year—have already lost more than 50% of their investment before the delivery date.
Mr. Tran Nhat Thinh (residing in Saigon Ward, Ho Chi Minh City) said that he and two friends decided to buy 300 taels of silver at a price of 4.5 million VND/tael at the end of January 2026. At that time, the investment of the three of them was 1.35 billion VND.
"We ordered 'paper silver,' paid immediately, with a delivery deadline of July 2026. Now, before the deadline, our investment has already suffered heavy losses. The value of 300 taels of silver at this time is now less than 700 million VND," Mr. Thinh lamented.
Many people who bought SJC gold bars and gold rings at the peak price of over 190 million VND/ounce earlier this year, or bought gold during the God of Wealth festival (late February 2026), would have suffered heavy losses if they hadn't sold them by now.
Further price reductions are not ruled out.
According to analysts, gold and silver have been continuously sold off in recent days, with prices falling to their lowest levels since the end of last year amid a strengthening US dollar. The US dollar index (DXY Index) on the international market is currently at 101.5 points - its highest level since March 2025.
The US dollar strengthened amid the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged at its latest policy meeting. Many predict the Fed may reverse its previous trend of cutting interest rates.
Gold expert Tran Duy Phuong believes that the most important factor influencing world gold and silver prices recently is interest rate policy, especially the Federal Reserve's management of the benchmark interest rate. When interest rates rise, money tends to move away from gold and silver to potentially profitable channels such as government bonds or the US dollar.
According to Mr. Tran Duy Phuong, the sharp drop in gold and silver prices is due to market expectations that the FED may shift to an interest rate hike trend, instead of continuing to cut rates. However, the market is overreacting to this expectation, leading to a sell-off in gold and silver.
"The plunge in crude oil prices to around $70 per barrel after geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran eased will help inflation trend downward in the coming months. When inflation is under control, the Fed will have little reason to raise interest rates and may maintain the current level. The Fed might even consider cutting interest rates if economic conditions are favorable," analyzed Mr. Tran Duy Phuong.
Financial expert, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, also believes that the current downward trend in gold and silver prices mainly stems from the easing of geopolitical tensions worldwide, along with the anticipation of new monetary policy signals from the FED. Gold and silver prices are under pressure to correct after a prolonged period of rapid increase.
Mr. Nguyen Tri Hieu commented: "In the short term, gold prices may continue to fluctuate sharply and further declines cannot be ruled out. However, in the medium and long term, gold remains an important safe-haven asset when the global economy still harbors many uncertainties. Investors need to carefully consider the timing of gold purchases, avoiding herd mentality or excessive use of financial leverage."
According to gold expert Tran Duy Phuong, in June 2026, the world gold price fell by approximately $600/ounce from around $4,560/ounce. From its record high, gold has dropped by as much as $1,600/ounce, indicating a very strong market correction. Gold prices are approaching oversold territory; while further declines are possible, the room for further drops is limited, only about $100-200/ounce. The likelihood of a gold price recovery is considered high. A rebound to $500-700/ounce in the near future is entirely possible.
On Kitco, Michael Hsueh, an analyst at Deutsche Bank, suggested that the Fed's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, along with positive US macroeconomic data, played a major role in the decline in gold prices. The bank forecasts the average gold price to reach $4,300 per ounce in the third quarter of 2026 – a decrease of over 22% compared to previous forecasts – before rising to $4,800 in the fourth quarter of 2026.
In their latest report, Bank of America experts suggest that the target of $6,000 per ounce for gold is now difficult to achieve as previously predicted. However, fundamental factors such as the large US budget deficit and macroeconomic risks could still support a long-term rebound in gold prices.
Previously, UOB Vietnam Bank maintained a positive outlook on gold prices, albeit cautiously in the short term. The bank forecast that gold prices could reach $4,600 per ounce in Q3 2026 and rise to around $5,200 per ounce in Q2 2027.
Source: https://nld.com.vn/lo-nang-vi-dau-tu-vang-bac-196260625203525142.htm
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