HSBC maintains its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.5%.

(Dan Tri Newspaper) - HSBC experts maintain their forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth for both 2024 and 2025 at 6.5%, despite the damage from Typhoon Yagi .

This information is from a report on the Asian economy recently released by HSBC's Global Research Department. According to the report, HSBC assessed that Super Typhoon Yagi, which made landfall on September 7th, had a particularly severe impact on Vietnam. The government has estimated preliminary damage at $1.6 billion, noting widespread flooding and damage to numerous factories, warehouses, and power infrastructure. Although recovery and restoration efforts are underway, the aftermath of the strongest typhoon to hit Asia this year is expected to last for several more weeks. However, the report also noted that HSBC experts expect positive developments that could offset the temporary economic losses caused by Super Typhoon Yagi.

HSBC duy trì dự báo tăng trưởng GDP Việt Nam đạt 6,5% - 1 — HSBC forecasts Vietnam's GDP growth at 6.5% (Photo: Tuan Anh).

HSBC experts believe Vietnam is expected to see further growth due to its continued robust recovery, strong manufacturing sector, and more favorable inflation trends. Improved demand for goods will be crucial to Vietnam's recovery, as Western markets account for nearly half of Vietnam's exports. Therefore, the market needs to closely monitor trends and the pace of consumer spending in the West. The analysis team believes that policies such as the reduction of environmental protection tax on fuel and the continued reduction of value-added tax on certain goods and services until the end of 2024 will support domestic industries, especially retail, which is experiencing slower growth than before the pandemic. In addition, the amended Land Law, effective from August, will positively impact the outlook for the real estate sector. Despite being recently passed, the amended Land Law appears to have contributed to a boost in foreign investment in this sector, with recent FDI figures showing a widespread increase, according to analysts. Regarding inflation, price trends are expected to be more favorable in the last six months of the year due to unfavorable base effects from declining energy demand. A easing cycle by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), within expectations, will also help alleviate some exchange rate pressures. Considering all these factors, HSBC maintains its 2024 inflation forecast at 3.6%, quite low compared to the State Bank of Vietnam's target ceiling of 4.5%. The bank also keeps its 2025 inflation forecast at 3%. Previously, United Overseas Bank (UOB) lowered its growth forecast for Vietnam this year due to Typhoon Yagi, from 6% to 5.9%. UOB anticipates that the effects of this storm will be felt more strongly in the North towards the end of the third quarter and the beginning of the fourth quarter.

Dantri.com.vn

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/hsbc-duy-tri-du-bao-tang-truong-gdp-viet-nam-dat-65-20240930172944619.htm