Once hailed as a reformer, in this election, President Erdogan has been troubled by the poor economic situation and close relationship with Russia.
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| Türkiye election: Economic stalemate and 'love affair' with Russia test reformer Erdogan. In the photo: President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (left) and President Vladimir V. Putin during a meeting in Sochi, 2021. (Source: Kremlin) |
Observers say that a defeat by Mr. Erdogan in the Turkish election will make Moscow nervous because it could lose an important economic and diplomatic partnership. Meanwhile, Western leaders will be glad to have "an easier Türkiye".
As a result of the counting of votes in this Turkish presidential election, incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan passed the first test when he won 49,35% of the votes, while his main rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu won 45%. number of votes in favor. With no candidate winning 50%, the "race" will move on to the second round, to be held on May 28.
Ankara's "weight"
Commenting on the results, Russia said that Moscow expects cooperation with Ankara to continue and deepen, regardless of who wins this election.
But actually, Every development of the Turkish election is being closely watched not only from the Kremlin, but also from Western capitals, the headquarters of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), or the White House. and across the region, where President Erdogan has asserted Turkey's "power," while strengthening ties with Russia and straining Ankara's own traditional alliance with the United States.
Reality has shown that its influence cannot be better, demonstrating Ankara's "weight" in the vast international economic and political system, making policymakers in the West, Moscow or the Middle East and more… for President Erdogan special attention.
Because the results of this election will not only determine who is the important leader of the country of 85 million people, but also decide how to run the country, the direction of the economy to get out of the deadlock. are facing and shaping foreign policy in the face of unpredictable turns, which will affect the political and economic life of the region.
As former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt once said, "we all want an easier Türkiye". Because Ankara, a strategically important NATO member, under Erdogan has become an increasingly complex, unpredictable partner for the European Union (EU).
For example, in 10 Western sanctions packages aimed at Russia, related to the military campaign in Ukraine, Turkey has announced it will not participate. Because for Ankara, the imposition of sanctions will harm its own economy more than the Russian economy.
The Turkish presidential spokesman also said that Ankara adheres to its own interests and does not follow the West in sanctions against Russia, as it is guided by pragmatic economic considerations and a balanced policy. equal.
By refusing to enforce Western sanctions on Moscow, President Erdogan has contributed to undermining efforts to isolate the Kremlin in order to drain it of funding for its military campaign.
However, thanks to that, the Turkish economy, which has been struggling recently, has benefited from the sharp decline in Russian oil prices, helping Erdogan "seek" the next five-year term. according to.
Mutually beneficial
For Russia, under President Erdogan, Turkey has become an indispensable trading partner and sometimes a trusted diplomatic intermediary, like the Grain Agreement with Kiev. This relationship has become even more important to the Kremlin since the military conflict with Ukraine.
As for the Turkish economy, during his 20 years in power, Mr. Erdogan has pursued a foreign policy of non-alignment that has frequently frustrated Western allies, but opened up economic opportunity. , as well as “worth it” diplomacy for Moscow – perhaps never better.
Not only has Erdogan refused to join Western sanctions against Russia and provide the country with oil and gas markets, but Turkey has also become a much-needed importer for Moscow and an important link. with the global economy in the context of Western tightening sanctions.
For its part, Turkey benefits not only from cheap energy, but also from investment and revenue from Russian tourism, which has increased significantly after the military campaign in Ukraine. Russia is building Turkey's first nuclear power plant, and since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, Moscow has announced plans to turn Turkey into a natural gas trading hub.
Although, not openly interfering in the elections in Turkey, recent developments show that President Putin has indirectly supported his "friend" Erdogan. For example, on May 3, Russian energy giant Gazprom announced that it had allowed Turkey to defer payments for natural gas purchases until 5. Such a move could be interpreted as a gift from Turkey. President Putin for his friend Erdogan before the historic election.
Previously, on April 28, the two leaders jointly attended the ceremony marking the loading of nuclear fuel into the first generating unit at the Akkuyu nuclear plant, southern Turkey, hosted by Xi Jinping. Russia's Rosatom nuclear consortium built. As the Turkish opposition is said to oppose the construction of the plant, Mr. Erdogan stated that, should his opponent come to power, power outages would become the norm.
Incumbent President Erdogan is considered one of the most powerful leaders of Türkiye today. Having served as Prime Minister from 2003-2014 and from 2014 to now as President, it is undeniable that under the leadership of Mr. Erdogan, Turkey has had a relatively large influence on the world and area.
Having led the economy through a period of steady growth, President Recep Erdogan is also internationally hailed as a reformer. The country's middle class expanded and millions lifted out of poverty as he prioritized massive infrastructure projects to modernize Turkey.
However, this election took place in the context of the bad economic situation in Turkey, which is facing many difficulties because of the crisis of living standards, but many voters believe that President Erdogan can handle the situation well.
As for the Turks who turned their backs on Mr. Erdogan, it was largely due to economic difficulties when inflation reached 85% in October 10 and the collapse of the local currency (Lira).
In addition, along with the prolonged economic crisis and hyperinflation that have created challenges for Turkey in the past few years, the terrible earthquake disaster on February 6 killed nearly 2 people. lives, hundreds of thousands of people were injured, is considered a factor that upsets the political situation of this NATO member state.
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