The economy is accelerating, awaiting good news at the end of the year.

GDP grew by 7.4% in the third quarter and is expected to reach 7.6-8% in the fourth quarter of 2024. Overcoming the difficulties following the historic Typhoon Yagi, the Vietnamese economy may receive good news of high growth towards the end of the year.

Boosting industrial production is a crucial driver of future economic growth. Photo: Duc Thanh

The joy after the storm and the Prime Minister 's words of gratitude.

After concerns about an economic slowdown due to the impact of the historic Typhoon Yagi , good news arrived when data from the General Statistics Office showed that GDP growth in the third quarter reached 7.4%, bringing the growth rate for the first nine months to 6.82% – not far from the 7% threshold.

The 7.4% growth rate in the third quarter is not only 0.7 percentage points higher than the scenario in Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP (6.7%), but also equivalent to the full-year growth scenario of 7% as reported by the Ministry of Planning and Investment at the regular Government meeting in June 2024.

At the online Government conference with localities and the regular Government meeting in September 2024, Minister of Planning and Investment Nguyen Chi Dung happily announced these figures. Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh also praised and thanked the localities for their efforts to overcome the aftermath of the storm.

Statistics show that in the first nine months of 2024, many localities achieved high GRDP growth rates. Leading the way was Bac Giang (13.89%), followed by Thanh Hoa (12.46%), Lai Chau (11.63%), Ha Nam (10.89%), etc. Even some localities severely affected by Typhoon No. 3 maintained high growth momentum, such as Hai Phong (9.77%), Quang Ninh (8.02%), Phu Tho (9.56%), Lao Cai (7.71%), Cao Bang (7%), and Yen Bai (7.15%).

“In the first nine months, Bac Giang's socio-economic development maintained a positive growth rate. High industrial production growth contributed to boosting the province's economic growth,” said Mr. Nguyen Van Gau, Secretary of the Bac Giang Provincial Party Committee.

Meanwhile, despite being praised by the Government for maintaining its growth momentum, Mr. Nguyen Van Tung, Chairman of the People's Committee of Hai Phong City, remains concerned about two "negative indicators" in the city's socio-economic development. These are: GRDP growth reaching only 9.77%, lower than the set target.

"That's due to the impact of the storm. We need to strive harder," Mr. Tung said, mentioning another "poor indicator" that the disbursement of public investment capital has only reached 52% of the planned capital assigned by the Prime Minister.

In reality, this is a "negative indicator" from the perspective of people in Hai Phong. However, compared to the national average, these are still quite positive figures, especially considering that Hai Phong was one of the two localities heavily affected by Typhoon Yagi.

Thanks to the efforts of localities such as Hai Phong, Bac Giang, and even Quang Ninh and Lai Chau, economic growth in the third quarter still reached a high rate (7.4%), bringing the GDP growth for the first nine months to 6.82%. This means that, contrary to previous concerns that the impact of the storm might reduce GDP growth in the third quarter by 0.35 percentage points and the nine-month figure by 0.12 percentage points, the economy is still on track.

When announcing the socio-economic statistics for the third quarter and the first nine months, the General Statistics Office explained that the infrastructure damage, which amounted to 81,500 billion VND as of September 27th, only accounted for changes in the economy's assets and not production activities during the period, so the impact on GDP growth was not significant. Furthermore, production activities recovered quickly after the storm, leading to high growth in the industrial sector, offsetting the damage and slowdown in the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors.

The race to the finish line

The economy overcame difficulties to accelerate in the third quarter, and this is an important foundation for the economy to reach a growth rate of up to 7% in 2024, exceeding the set target and achieving all 15/15 socio-economic development targets for 2024.

At the Government Conference with localities and the regular Government meeting in September 2024, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh directed that efforts must be made to achieve an annual growth rate of over 7%, with growth in the fourth quarter reaching 7.5-8%. This is also the economic scenario for 2024 recently updated by the Ministry of Planning and Investment.

In the first nine months of 2024, many localities experienced high GRDP growth rates. Leading the way was Bac Giang (13.89%), followed by Thanh Hoa (12.46%), Lai Chau (11.63%), Ha Nam (10.89%), and others.

The question is, can the economy achieve this goal?

Discussing economic opportunities in the fourth quarter and the first months of 2025, Mr. Luong Van Khoi, Deputy Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management Research (CIEM), stated that the impact of Typhoon Yagi on the economy in the third quarter was not significant, and that the effects may extend into the fourth quarter and the following year. This is because the localities affected by the typhoon, such as Quang Ninh and Hai Phong, are key industrial provinces.

The difficulties are real, especially given the extensive damage to machinery, equipment, crops, and aquaculture cages.

However, in a report published a few days ago, titled "Asian Economics Quarterly – The Race to the Finish Line," HSBC Bank predicted that the Vietnamese economy will still achieve a growth rate of 6.5% this year, despite the damage caused by Typhoon Yagi. This is the most optimistic forecast for the Vietnamese economy among international organizations, including the World Bank, ADB, IMF, etc.

According to HSBC, the aftermath of Typhoon Yagi could last for weeks, but "potential positive developments could offset the temporary economic losses caused by Super Typhoon Yagi."

These "potential positive possibilities" could be the efforts of economic powerhouses like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, or breakthroughs in industrial production, or the disbursement of public investment.

“We have identified key tasks and solutions for the last three months of the year. These include a strong focus on disbursing public investment funds, as well as promoting growth to achieve the year's targets,” said Mr. Phan Van Mai, Chairman of the People's Committee of Ho Chi Minh City, as he “took on the task.”

Despite being the economic powerhouse, Ho Chi Minh City's GRDP growth only reached 6.85% in the first nine months of the year, which is not high compared to the GRDP growth rates of other localities nationwide. Meanwhile, Ho Chi Minh City contributes 20% of the national GDP. Therefore, the economy is looking to Ho Chi Minh City for a breakthrough.

According to Mr. Phan Van Mai, the city is actively implementing solutions to achieve a GRDP growth rate of 7.5% this year and is expected to reach 8-8.5% next year.

The Prime Minister also considers the disbursement of public investment as a key solution to enable the economy to achieve its growth target of 7% or higher this year.

“The Prime Minister’s working groups and the 26 working groups of government members must intensify their activities in collaboration with localities immediately after the meeting. The progress of important national projects and key projects, the expressway system, and investment preparation for important railway projects must be accelerated…”, the Prime Minister instructed.