Experts predict that coffee prices in the domestic market on October 28, 2024, may fall sharply due to abundant global supply, favorable weather for the new coffee crop in the main growing regions of Brazil – the world's largest coffee producer – and a domestic supply shortage, forcing Vietnam to increase coffee imports to meet production needs.
According to data from the trading session on October 27, 2024, domestic coffee prices increased by 1,000-1,200 VND/kg, ranging from 109,400-110,000 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 109,700 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province at 110,000 VND/kg.
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| Coffee price forecast for October 28, 2024: Will the downward trend continue? |
Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 109,800 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday; in Pleiku and La Grai, the price is 109,700 VND/kg; in Kon Tum province, the price is 109,800 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 110,000 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) is being purchased at 109,400 VND/kg, an increase of 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.
Today's coffee prices (October 27th) in Dak Lak province are as follows: in Cu M'gar district, coffee is being purchased at approximately 109,800 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg; while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it is being purchased at the same rate of 109,700 VND/kg.
According to the latest update on world coffee prices at 8:00 PM on October 27, 2024 (Vietnam time) on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for November 2024 delivery on the London exchange was 4,430 USD/ton, an increase of 62 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.
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| Coffee prices today, October 27, 2024: Robusta coffee prices on the London exchange. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com) |
The January 2025 delivery price is $4,411/ton, up $74; the March 2025 delivery price is $4,323/ton, up $57; and the May 2025 delivery price is $4,256/ton, up $52.
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| Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange on October 27, 2024. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com) |
Specifically, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York exchange today, at 8:00 PM on October 27, 2024, increased across all contract periods, fluctuating between 243.60 and 248.40 cents/lb.
Specifically, the December 2024 contract was 248.40 cents/lb, up 2.95 cents/lb from the start of the session. The March 2025 contract was 247.50 cents/lb, up 3.05 cents/lb; the May 2025 contract was 246.15 cents/lb, up 3.15 cents/lb; and the July 2025 contract was 243.60 cents/lb, up 3.35 cents/lb.
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| Brazilian Arabica coffee prices on October 27, 2024. (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com) |
Brazilian Arabica coffee prices today, at 9:00 PM on October 27, 2024, showed mixed movements. Specifically, the December 2024 delivery contract was $300.10/ton, down 0.22%; the March 2025 contract was $300.00/ton, down 0.37%; the May 2025 contract was $301.40/ton, up 1.40%; and the July 2025 contract was $297.95/ton, up 1.52%.
Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.
Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.
Favorable weather conditions for the new coffee crop in Brazil's main growing regions are believed to be the reason for the drop in coffee prices. Short bursts of rain are occurring and helping to alleviate stress caused by low humidity. Climatempo also forecasts significantly more rain in Minas Gerais this weekend, which will moderate temperatures and improve soil moisture.
Technically, on a weekly timeframe, both robusta and arabica markets are expected to decline further unless there is significant fundamental news next week. However, fundamentally, coffee prices remain supported by concerns about long-term crop damage due to drought since April.
By the end of September, marking the conclusion of the 2023-2024 coffee crop year, Vietnam had imported approximately 139,000 tons of coffee worth nearly $527 million, an increase of about 36% in volume and nearly 76% in value compared to the same period last year.
As the harvest season draws to a close, Vietnam is importing more coffee due to scarce domestic supply. In September alone, businesses imported 14,400 tons of coffee, worth nearly $65 million, a 54% increase in volume and a 132% increase in value compared to the same period last year.
In September, Vietnam imported both green coffee beans (raw) and finished coffee products. However, the average price of imported coffee was lower than the export price. For example, the average price of imported green coffee beans was $4,194 per ton, while the average export price was $5,022 per ton.
Imports of processed coffee (roasted, ground, and instant) totaled 1,265 tons, with an average price of US$7,580 per ton, while the export price of processed coffee was US$9,269 per ton.
This information is for reference only. Prices may vary depending on the location.
