Is the Middle Eastern conflict cooling down?

Developments in the Middle East that favor Israel are seen as the basis for Tel Aviv to create a negotiating position for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Israel and Hezbollah reached a ceasefire in November. The situation in Syria is also seen as ending the military confrontation and moving toward building a new political system. At this time, attention is focused on the efforts of diplomats to leverage these developments to promote a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. This plan is showing promising signs.

Israeli tanks appeared near the Gaza border on December 11.

Has Hamas made concessions?

The Wall Street Journal reported yesterday that Hamas had conceded to two key Israeli demands for a ceasefire, including allowing Israeli troops to be temporarily stationed in Gaza, and providing a list of hostages to be released if Israel committed to refraining from attacks.

Most UN members demand a ceasefire in Gaza, while the US opposes it.

The issue of Israel's military presence has long been a sticking point that has caused previous negotiations to break down. The collapse of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime has inflicted significant geopolitical damage on Hamas allies such as Iran and Hezbollah. The latest proposal, put forward by Egyptian negotiators and supported by mediators such as the US and Qatar, is based on momentum from the Israeli-Hezbollah ceasefire in November.

The Nuseirat refugee camp in central Gaza was damaged on December 11.

On December 11th, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz held a phone call with his US counterpart Lloyd Austin, stating that "there is now an opportunity to reach a new agreement." US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan also traveled to Israel yesterday, followed by visits to Egypt and Qatar, hoping to finalize a ceasefire before President Joe Biden's term ends. The UN General Assembly on December 11th adopted a resolution calling for a ceasefire and the unconditional release of hostages in Gaza. However, this move is likely to be largely symbolic, as similar resolutions were opposed by the US at the Security Council last month. Before any clear diplomatic progress is made, bombing continues in Gaza. Gaza health officials accuse Israeli airstrikes yesterday of killing at least 35 people.

Leveraging Syria

Expanding political influence is seen as a fundamental element to gaining leverage at the negotiating table, and Israel is believed to have taken advantage of the vacuum created by the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Al Jazeera reported yesterday that the Israeli military this week launched airstrikes on nearly 500 targets in Syria to destroy military infrastructure, which Israel claims was necessary to prevent weapons from falling into the hands of opposition forces that could threaten Israel. This military action by Israel has been condemned by many countries, including Russia, although the US continues to support Tel Aviv.

IDF: Israel attacks 320 targets, destroying over 70% of Syrian military capabilities.

According to Reuters yesterday, this is a politically opportune moment for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to finalize a ceasefire. On December 9th, the Israeli Prime Minister stated that developments in Syria are further isolating Hamas and that concessions may be considered. A Palestinian official familiar with the negotiations said there is a "negotiation frenzy" as the parties continuously propose ideas. For Netanyahu, demanding concessions from Hamas now would be more convenient, given Israel's enhanced position, while Hezbollah and Syria no longer pose a significant threat.

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) announced on December 11 that senior U.S. military representatives had arrived in Beirut, Lebanon, to oversee the first phase of Israeli troop withdrawal under the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, which took effect on November 27. On the social media platform X, CENTCOM stated that Israeli troops were withdrawing from the southern Lebanese town of al-Khiam, and Lebanese armed forces would take over the area. Since the ceasefire, Israel and Hezbollah have repeatedly accused each other of violating the agreement, but the ceasefire has not yet been broken.

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