This situation highlights the urgent need to boost rice procurement, ensure profitability for farmers, and find solutions to promote stable and sustainable rice exports.
From the beginning of the year to mid-March, Vietnam exported approximately 1.74 million tons of rice, earning $826.2 million, with an average export price of $477.6 per ton, a decrease of 10.7% compared to the same period in 2015.
Large supply, increased pressure on consumption.
Having just finished harvesting his family's rice crop, Mr. Ho Phuoc Minh (Tam Nong commune, Dong Thap province) shared: "If last season rice sold for over 6,000 VND/kg, this season the price is only around 5,700-5,800 VND/kg, and sometimes even lower. Although rice yield has increased, due to high agricultural input costs, profits have decreased significantly." This situation is also occurring in many rice-growing areas in Can Tho city. Phan Van Chau, Deputy Director of Kien Thanh Agricultural and Service Cooperative (Vi Thanh 1 commune), said: "Last winter-spring season, the price of rice reached a peak of 9,100 VND/kg, but this year, the price has fallen below 6,000 VND/kg, eroding farmers' profits. In addition, rising fuel prices have caused many combine harvester owners to temporarily suspend operations, leading to delays in harvesting in some areas and potentially affecting rice quality." Currently, many farmers are hesitant to plant their upcoming summer-autumn crop due to concerns about losses because of lower yields and quality, while all input costs have increased.
According to the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection ( Ministry of Agriculture and Environment ), the total rice cultivation area nationwide in 2026 will reach over 7 million hectares; the estimated production will exceed 43.6 million tons. Of this, approximately 15.46 million tons of paddy rice will be for export, equivalent to 7.73 million tons of marketable rice. Specifically, the forecast for the first six months of the year is over 4 million tons of marketable rice; and for the last six months, approximately 3.7 million tons. While the domestic supply of rice is quite large, rice exports are facing many difficulties.
According to Do Ha Nam, Chairman of the Vietnam Food Association (VFA), the current price of 5% broken rice from Vietnam is only slightly over 350 USD/ton. This is due to traditional markets such as Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines tending to restrict imports as they increase reserves and strengthen food security. Indonesia is even gradually rejoining the regional rice export market as domestic production improves. Furthermore, geopolitical factors are also significantly impacting the current rice export situation, as conflicts in the Middle East have disrupted transportation and increased logistics costs, affecting not only export revenue to countries in that region but also to European countries.
Opening up outlets for rice.
Amid falling global rice prices and increasing supply, boosting domestic rice procurement is considered an urgent solution to stabilize prices and ensure profits for farmers. The Prime Minister has instructed localities to direct relevant agencies to coordinate with businesses and cooperatives to organize timely rice procurement, avoiding situations where ripe rice remains unpurchased. The Ministry of Industry and Trade has requested rice export businesses to seriously fulfill their responsibilities regarding the purchase of paddy and rice for export; to increase purchases and temporary stockpiling of rice to prepare for signed contracts, and to be ready to supply when importing partners make purchases.
Mr. Pham Thai Binh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Trung An High-Tech Agriculture Joint Stock Company, believes that to boost rice procurement, especially during the peak harvest season, businesses need access to capital with reasonable interest rates. In addition, preferential credit mechanisms are needed for businesses with large storage facilities and procurement capacity, creating conditions to increase the temporary stockpiling of rice for farmers.
In the long term, according to Mr. Nguyen Quoc Manh, Deputy Director of the Department of Crop Production and Plant Protection, to increase the output of rice products, localities need to organize production according to market demand, using high-quality and high-value rice varieties, and specialty rice varieties. In fact, the structure of rice varieties for the 2025-2026 winter-spring crop continues to shift in a positive direction, with high-quality, fragrant, and specialty rice varieties accounting for about 75%; however, the proportion of low-quality processed rice remains significant and needs further adjustment in the future.
From a market perspective, Deputy Director of the Multilateral Trade Policy Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) Ngo Chung Khanh commented: The commitments on rice in free trade agreements (FTAs) show a very high degree of market opening. With the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA), the EU allocates a quota of 80,000 tons of rice per year to Vietnam with a 0% tariff rate. Similarly, the Vietnam-UK Free Trade Agreement (UKVFTA) also allocates a quota of 13,358 tons with a 0% tariff rate, distributed according to rice varieties. With the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), some markets have also opened up significantly, such as Mexico applying a 0% tariff rate to rice or Canada maintaining a 0% tariff but with specific technical requirements.
However, Vietnam's rice market share in FTA markets remains very low. Specifically, in Canada, the market share is only 2.7%; in the EU 1.5%; in the UK 1.3%; and in Mexico only 0.2%. Meanwhile, Thailand accounts for 23.9% in Canada; 5.2% in the EU; 4.6% in the UK; and 17% in Mexico. India's rice market share in these markets is also high, especially in the UK with 26.7%. Therefore, Vietnamese rice exporting businesses need to pay more attention to certificates of origin and product quality to enhance competitiveness in FTA markets. This will diversify outlets, reduce dependence on traditional markets, and create a stable foundation for rice exports in the context of fierce competition.
Source: https://baolangson.vn/mo-rong-thi-truong-tieu-thu-lua-gao-5084971.html
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