Is the 1,300-point mark easy to reach?

The stock market experienced a rather volatile trading week at the end of March, with alternating periods of gains and losses as the VN-Index approached the 1,300-point resistance level. The index's upward momentum was halted by a decline at the end of the week, when the market lost 6.09 points.

At the end of the week, the VN-Index increased by 2.29 points, equivalent to 0.18% compared to the previous week, to 1,284.09 points. The HNX increased by 0.37% to 242.58 points.

The three banking stocks LPB,VIB , and VPB led the market, contributing a total of 0.8 points to the VN-Index. Meanwhile, VCB and BID had a negative impact on the market, with VCB alone deducting more than 1 point from the index.

Increased selling pressure from profit-taking, coupled with a clear ambiguity in demand, resulted in an average daily trading value on the HoSE of VND 21,886.21 billion, a decrease of 20.3% compared to the previous week.

Foreign investors continued to sell off shares aggressively, notably with two sessions seeing net selling value in the trillions of VND. Last week, foreign investors sold a net 4,650 billion VND across the entire market, a figure that surpassed the record weekly net selling of 3,443 billion VND in early December of 2023.

VN-Index performance last week (Source: TradingView).

Regarding developments in the coming trading week, Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Analysis at Yuanta Vietnam Securities, believes that the market may maintain its upward momentum, but the VN-Index may experience a correction when it reaches the 1,300 - 1,330 point range.

At the same time, the market may experience a slight decline in April after rising to the 1,300-1,330 point range. This is plausible because April and May are periods of information scarcity and high global market valuations, but the correction in April may not yet affect the market's medium- and long-term upward trend.

From the foreign investor perspective, they may not return to net buying at this time as the exchange rate is still under upward pressure in the coming period, and the exchange rate may remain pegged at a high level until the Fed begins to cut interest rates or the State Bank of Vietnam raises interest rates.

Therefore, the market will remain dependent on and driven by the cash flow of domestic individual investors. Of course, if the market corrects sharply to attractive price levels, that could also attract cash flow back into net buying.

In the short term, Mr. Minh suggests that investors should limit further buying during this period and consider taking partial profits on stocks that have already yielded high returns. At the same time, in the medium and long term, investors should prioritize buy-and-hold positions.

From a technical analysis perspective, Ms. Nguyen Phuong Nga, a securities analyst at Vietcombank, believes that on the daily chart, the VN-Index continues to closely follow the upper Bollinger band, and the three indicators MACD, RSI, and CMF are still trending upwards. However, the probability of a negative divergence forming should still be considered if strong selling pressure emerges in the resistance area of ​​1,290 - 1,300 points.

On the hourly chart, the MACD histogram shows signs of negative divergence, and the RSI has continued to form a peak. Combined with the downward trend in DI+ and ADX below 20, this suggests that the VN Index will struggle to reach the 1,290-1,300 point range again.

This expert recommends that investors limit new purchases at the present time, maintaining their holdings only in sectors that are attracting strong capital inflows such as securities and banking. The overall index is still mainly directly affected by banking and securities stocks after the recent strong rally.

Meanwhile, Yuanta Securities Vietnam believes that the VN-Index may continue to correct at the beginning of the session to the 1,278 point level and return to an upward trend towards the end of the next session.

At the same time, the market may quickly end its short-term correction phase. Weak liquidity during correction sessions indicates that investors have not yet shown signs of exiting the market and are mainly holding positions. In addition, the continuing rise in sentiment suggests that investors remain optimistic about the current market developments.

The short-term trend of the overall market remains UPWARD. Therefore, Yuanta recommends that short-term investors continue to hold a high proportion of stocks in their portfolios and limit new purchases during the upward movements in the coming sessions .

Source: https://www.nguoiduatin.vn/lang-kinh-chung-khoan-1-4-moc-1-300-diem-co-de-chinh-phuc-a656796.html