MXV-Index extends its winning streak to a seventh consecutive session.

Báo Công thương•20/09/2024

Commodity market today, September 18th: Global raw materials market attracts investment capital. Commodity market today, September 19th: Commodity market experiences sideways movement, facing profit-taking pressure.

Notably, the agricultural commodities market saw many items reverse their upward trend after two sessions of slight gains, despite the overall market trend. Meanwhile, the remaining three groups—industrial materials, metals, and energy—were mostly in positive territory.

MXV-Index

Grain prices plummeted across the board following US export results.

December corn futures reversed course and plunged 1.7% on September 19, erasing all gains from the previous four sessions. Pressure from the accelerating harvest and unimpressive US export figures were the main factors driving down corn prices yesterday.

Agricultural product price list

In its Export Sales report yesterday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) said the country sold 847,350 tons of 2024-2025 corn in the week ending September 12, a 27% increase from the previous week and within market expectations. Despite the improvement, the U.S. corn sales figures for the week were not particularly impressive and only partially offset the decline in corn prices.

In addition, the International Grains Council (IGC) lowered its forecast for global corn production in the 2024-2025 season to 1.22 billion tons, a decrease of 2 million tons compared to its previous estimate. This resulted in a 1 million ton reduction in global end-of-season corn stocks, bringing the total to 276 million tons. The IGC's adjustment of its forecast contributed to supporting corn prices.

Wheat led the decline among agricultural commodities yesterday, falling by as much as 1.78%. Sellers dominated immediately after the market opened, amid negative US export figures and competition from Black Sea supplies.

According to data from the Export Sales report, the US sold over 246,300 tons of 2024-2025 wheat in the week ending September 12, a decrease of 48% from the previous week and below market expectations. This figure indicates a significant decline in international demand for US wheat, putting considerable pressure on prices.

In this month's report, the IGC also lowered its forecast for global wheat production to 798 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons compared to its previous estimate. However, this reduction in forecast is insignificant, thus somewhat mitigating the decline in wheat prices seen in yesterday's session.

Coffee prices fluctuated despite CONAB's drastic production cuts in Brazil.

At the close of trading on September 19th, although the general trend for industrial raw materials was upward, coffee prices fluctuated due to conflicting supply and macroeconomic factors. At the end of the session, Arabica coffee prices fell by 1.04% and Robusta coffee prices were 1.61% lower than the reference price.

Industrial Raw Material Price List

On the one hand, CONAB's drastic reduction of over 4 million bags of coffee in Brazil's 2024 harvest is creating a drag on the price decline. Brazil's 2024 coffee harvest is estimated at nearly 54.8 million 60kg bags, down 6.8% from previous forecasts and 0.5% lower than the 2023 harvest. Of this, Arabica coffee production is down 2.52 million bags compared to the previous report. Robusta coffee production is down more than 1.5 million bags to 15.2 million bags, 6% lower than the previous year. Prolonged drought and heat during the plant's growth stage have reduced initial yield prospects.

On the other hand, the Dollar Index rose in the first half of the evening session, leading to a recovery in the USD/BRL exchange rate. This put pressure on prices and made Brazilian farmers reluctant to sell. Prices continued to fluctuate throughout the evening session.

Another notable development is that the price of 11-karat sugar has risen for the fourth consecutive session, reaching its highest level in five and a half months. Concerns about shrinking production in Brazil, the world's largest sugar exporter, continue to be a major factor supporting prices. Centro de Tecnologia Canaviera (CTC) forecasts that sugarcane yields for the 2024-2025 season in the South-Central region, Brazil's key production area, have decreased by 7.4% compared to the previous season as of the end of August. Dry weather and forest fires in the world's largest sugar-producing nation are the leading causes of the yield decline.

Prices of some other goods