Continue the strong growth?

Coffee prices are forecasted to rise again on June 15, 2024 in the domestic market. Experts believe that recent price movements reflect the steps, exploration and market monitoring of investors, including speculators.

Updated weather forecasts show limited rain potential in Brazil’s coffee-growing regions next week. Earlier, the meteorological agency Somar Meteorologia reported no rain in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region last week.

Meanwhile, in Vietnam, sellers are cautious ahead of the upcoming new harvest as they believe productivity will be severely reduced. According to information from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , Vietnam's coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop year could fall by up to 20%, to 1.47 million tons, the lowest level in the past 4 years (in 2023, Vietnam exported 1.61 million tons of coffee).

For nearly 3 months, prices have continued to rise, and farmers no longer have coffee. The opposite effect is that businesses are confused by the risk of shortages for export contracts. They are forced to buy up coffee with reduced quality, or have to buy coffee from traders, and export activities are difficult. Thus, the market price increase means that traders manipulate market share.

In addition, domestic coffee prices today increased slightly, ranging from 120,400 to 121,600 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 121,500 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 121,600 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 121,400 VND, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 121,300 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 121,400 VND/kg; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 121,600 VND/kg.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 120,400 VND/kg.

Coffee prices today (June 14) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 121,400 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at the same price of 121,300 VND/kg.

In contrast to the upward trend of domestic coffee prices, today's online coffee prices of three exchanges in London, New York and Brazil fell sharply.

London Robusta coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for July 2024 delivery on the London floor was at 4,111 USD/ton, down 110 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session. The delivery term for September 2024 was 4,009 USD/ton, down 84 USD; the delivery term for November 2024 was 3,866 USD/ton, down 68 USD and the delivery term for January 2025 was 3,700 USD/ton, down 60 USD.

New York Arabica coffee price (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:30 on June 14, 2024 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 221.55 - 224.20 cents/lb.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery period is 224.20 cents/lb; down 1.85 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The September 2024 delivery period is 224.05 cents/lb, down 2.20 cents/lb; the December 2024 delivery period is 222.75 cents/lb, down 2.25 cents/lb and the March 2025 delivery period is 221.25 cents/lb, down 0.2 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee at 20:30 on June 14, 2024 had inconsistent increases and decreases across terms, ranging from 271.60 - 283.55 USD/ton.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery period is 283.55 USD, an increase of 2.25 USD. The September 2024 delivery period is 274.00 USD/ton, a decrease of 2.65 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session; the December 2024 delivery period is 269.70 USD/ton, a decrease of 3.45 USD and the March 2025 delivery period is 271.60 USD/ton, an increase of 1.60 USD.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, it will be open from 19:00 - 02:35 (next day), Vietnam time.

With a more positive global economic outlook, coffee consumption is forecast to grow by 2% to 3% during the 2024/2025 crop year. Global coffee consumption growth overall is expected to average around 0.95% year-on-year, with many independent forecasters predicting a total of 171.50 million bags in the upcoming 2024/25 crop year.

This growth is largely driven by relatively new coffee consumer markets and producing countries such as China, India, Indonesia, the Middle East and Vietnam, which have recorded increased domestic coffee consumption.

Meanwhile, the coffee market has also seen a change in the roles of the two main commodities. Two years ago, the export price of Robusta coffee was only half that of Arabica coffee, but now everything has changed completely. According to Vicofa, Vietnam mainly produces Robusta coffee (accounting for more than 94% of the area and output) while Arabica coffee (mainly Catimo variety) accounts for a small proportion. This means that the Vietnamese coffee industry has benefited from the new developments in the prices of the two main coffee types in the world.

Vietnam’s coffee supply is running out while the outlook for the next crop is not very optimistic. The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) recently predicted that coffee prices will increase again, mainly due to investors’ increasing concerns about the supply prospects from Vietnam.

Hedge funds have increased their net long positions in anticipation of a further shortage of Robusta from Vietnam in the coming time. According to Volcafe, Vietnam’s Robusta coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year is estimated at 24 million bags, the lowest level in 13 years, due to unfavorable weather.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary by location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-1562024-noi-tiep-da-tang-manh-326226.html