Continuing the strong upward trend?

Coffee prices in the domestic market are forecast to rebound on June 15, 2024. Experts believe that recent price movements reflect the market exploration and monitoring efforts of investors, including speculators.

Updated weather forecasts indicate a limited chance of rain in Brazil's coffee-growing regions next week. Previously, the Somar Meteorologia meteorological agency reported that the Minas Gerais region of Brazil had received no rain over the past week.

Meanwhile, in Vietnam, sellers are cautious ahead of the upcoming harvest, believing that yields will be significantly reduced. According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development , Vietnam's coffee production in the 2024-2025 crop year could fall by as much as 20%, to 1.47 million tons, the lowest level in the last four years (in 2023, Vietnam exported 1.61 million tons of coffee).

For nearly three months, prices have continued to rise, leaving farmers with no more coffee. Conversely, businesses are struggling with the risk of shortages for export contracts. They are forced to buy up lower-quality coffee or repurchase coffee from traders, making export operations difficult. Thus, rising market prices mean that traders are manipulating market share.

In addition, domestic coffee prices today saw a slight increase, ranging from 120,400 to 121,600 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 121,500 VND/kg, with the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province at 121,600 VND/kg.

Specifically, the purchase price of coffee in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 121,400 VND/kg, in Pleiku and La Grai it is 121,300 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province the price is 121,400 VND/kg; in Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 121,600 VND/kg.

In Lam Dong province, in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, and Lam Ha, the price of bulk green coffee beans (green coffee beans, fresh green coffee beans) is 120,400 VND/kg.

Today's coffee prices (June 14th) in Dak Lak province are as follows: in Cu M'gar district, coffee is being purchased at approximately 121,400 VND/kg, while in Ea H'leo district and Buon Ho town, it is being purchased at the same rate of 121,300 VND/kg.

Contrary to the upward trend in domestic coffee prices, online coffee prices today on three exchanges in London, New York, and Brazil fell sharply.

London Robusta coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Specifically, the price of Robusta coffee futures contracts for July 2024 delivery on the London exchange was $4,111 per ton, down $110 from the start of trading. The September 2024 contract was $4,009 per ton, down $84; the November 2024 contract was $3,866 per ton, down $68; and the January 2025 contract was $3,700 per ton, down $60.

New York Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Similarly, Arabica coffee prices on the New York exchange today, at 8:30 PM on June 14, 2024, decreased across all contract periods, fluctuating between 221.55 and 224.20 cents/lb.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery contract was 224.20 cents/lb, down 1.85 cents/lb from the start of the session. The September 2024 contract was 224.05 cents/lb, down 2.20 cents/lb; the December 2024 contract was 222.75 cents/lb, down 2.25 cents/lb; and the March 2025 contract was 221.25 cents/lb, down 0.2 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices (Image: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices at 8:30 PM on June 14, 2024 showed inconsistent increases and decreases across different contract periods, ranging from 271.60 to 283.55 USD/ton.

Specifically, the July 2024 delivery contract was $283.55, up $2.25. The September 2024 delivery contract was $274.00/ton, down $2.65 from the start of trading; the December 2024 delivery contract was $269.70/ton, down $3.45; and the March 2025 delivery contract was $271.60/ton, up $1.60.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe exchange (London exchange) opens at 4:00 PM and closes at 12:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US (New York exchange) opens at 4:15 PM and closes at 1:30 AM (the next day), Vietnam time.

For Arabica coffee traded on the B3 Brazil exchange, trading hours will be from 19:00 to 02:35 (the next day), Vietnam time.

With a more positive global economic outlook, coffee consumption is projected to grow by 2% to 3% during the 2024/2025 harvest season. Overall global coffee consumption is forecast by many independent analysts to average around 0.95% year-on-year, potentially reaching a total of 171.50 million bags in the upcoming 2024/25 crop year.

This growth has been driven primarily by relatively new coffee consumer markets and producing countries such as China, India, Indonesia, the Middle East, and Vietnam, which have recorded increased domestic coffee consumption.

Meanwhile, the coffee market has also seen a shift in the roles of the two main commodities. Two years ago, the export price of Robusta coffee was only half that of Arabica coffee, but now, things have completely changed. According to Vicofa, Vietnam mainly produces Robusta coffee (accounting for over 94% of the area and production), while Arabica coffee (mainly the Catimo variety) accounts for a low proportion. This means that the Vietnamese coffee industry has benefited from the new price trends of the two main types of coffee in the world.

Vietnam's coffee supply is dwindling while the outlook for the next crop is not very promising. The Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) recently predicted that coffee prices will rise again, mainly due to increased investor concerns about the supply prospects from Vietnam.

Currently, hedge funds have increased their net long positions, anticipating continued scarcity of Robusta coffee supply from Vietnam in the near future. According to Volcafe trading firm, Vietnam's Robusta coffee production for the 2024/2025 crop year is estimated at 24 million bags, the lowest level in 13 years, due to unfavorable weather conditions.

This information is for reference only. Prices may vary depending on the location.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-ngay-1562024-noi-tiep-da-tang-manh-326226.html