Trump returns to the White House, revealing the biggest "loser", China has prepared

President-elect Donald Trump – who often calls himself “Tariff Man”. (Source: Getty Images)

Speaking to supporters in Florida on November 6, Mr. Trump said he would usher in “a golden age of America.”

Mr Trump's campaign pledges included aggressive tariffs, deregulation and forging major global deals.

Analysts say it is difficult to determine how far the new US president will go in his term, but the consequences of any measures will have clear global implications.

The “Tax Man” Returns

Six years ago, Mr. Trump often called himself “Tariff Man.”

He also once described “tariff” as his favorite word, calling it “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.”

In an effort to raise revenue, the president has proposed a general 20% tariff on all goods imported into the U.S. Meanwhile, he has proposed tariffs of up to 60% on Chinese products and tariffs of up to 2.000% on cars made in Mexico.

With the European Union (EU), President-elect Donald Trump declared that this 27-nation bloc will have to pay a "heavy price" for not buying enough US exports.

On the issue of tariffs, Lizzy Galbraith, political economist at asset management firm Abrdn, sees that in any situation where the future US president uses tariffs regularly, the main focus will be on China.

And Mr. Alex Holmes, Director of Asia-Pacific region Binh Duong Most markets and policymakers assume that Mr. Trump will not impose the full tariffs he pledged during the campaign, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.

However, given his unpredictable precedent, experts predict that Asian countries may consider measures to minimize the impact of tariff shocks.

Bên cạnh đó, các đồng minh của Mỹ trong khu vực như Nhật Bản, South Korea và Philippines sẽ phải chú ý đến các tác động dây chuyền từ thuế quan mà ông Trump áp với Trung Quốc. Bởi đây là quốc gia láng giềng và đối tác thương mại lớn nhất của hai nền kinh tế lớn nhất world.

Analysts warn that plans to impose global tariffs from the US could also push up prices for consumers and slow spending.

Negative outlook for Europe

On global economic growth, Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics, said that with “Tariff Man” back in the White House, the impact on growth is likely to be limited in the near term. But the big implications for trade and the structure of growth, as well as for financial markets, are inevitable.

For example, Mr May said, if aspects of Mr Trump's policy agenda were to come to pass – particularly on tariffs – the global impact would be “huge”.

“In addition, uncertainty about Trump’s stance on conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East also raises the risk of greater instability in both regions, which could impact regional and even global growth,” the director of global macro research at Oxford Economics stressed.

As for Europe, the prospect of a second Trump presidency has long been seen as negative.

However, analysts at Signum Global Advisors found that the severity of the problem with the region has not been properly assessed.

Indeed, analysts argue, there are several factors that suggest the EU is likely to be “the biggest loser in the second Trump era.” These include trade tensions, the frustration of major policy decisions in Europe and Mr Trump’s desire to double down on America’s advantage in attracting capital flows.

Speaking to supporters in Florida on November 6, Mr. Trump said he would usher in a 'golden age of America'. (Source: Telegraph)

Asia is prepared

For Asia, Mr Trump’s victory is not good news either, especially for China, analysts at investment bank Macquarie Group said. But the region is “better prepared” than in 2016 – when “Tariff Man” first moved into the White House.

“The main tenet of Mr Trump’s campaign has been to raise tariffs. While clearly anticipated, the potential headwinds sweeping across Asia – particularly China – will add to volatility,” analysts at investment bank Macquarie Group wrote in a research note.

To balance the situation, China has accelerated its stimulus measures, the investment bank said. Goverment China has outlined ambitions to support economic growth at 5% and address property market difficulties to support domestic consumer confidence.

Mitchell Reiss, a diplomatic American and honorary fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) predicts that there will be some differences in Mr. Trump's policies in his second return to the White House.

“I think President-elect Trump has said that he wants to raise tariffs on China again until the ‘playing field’ is leveled, in his view,” he asserted.

Meanwhile, UBS Bank forecasts that the growth of the world's second largest economy will decrease by another 2,5% within 12 months, after applying the new tariffs of the White House owner. However, the decrease will only be 1,5% if Beijing "retaliates".

However, Mr. Tong Zhao, senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that Mr. Trump's election victory "was not completely surprising to China."

“President Xi Jinping’s country could respond by accelerating economic and technological self-reliance, while strengthening economic ties with countries like Russia,” he said.