Short-term risks remain high

Investment analysis

Asean Securities (Aseansc): The market has gradually shown a more positive trading trend in recent sessions, driven by foreign capital inflows. Aseansc believes that more short-term trading opportunities have emerged as the VN-Index reaches attractive valuation levels.

However, short-term risks remain high, and selling pressure may return when the VN-Index approaches the resistance zone near 1,040 – 1,050 points. Therefore, Aseansc recommends that investors limit chasing rallies and only invest during market fluctuations.

Vietcombank Securities (VCBS): From a technical perspective, after falling back to the 1,020 level, late-session buying pressure directly helped the market recover strongly. On the hourly chart, indicators such as MACD and RSI have both shown signs of a short-term reversal. In a positive market scenario, this could very well become a new market bottom.

However, the overall market remains in a downtrend. Therefore, VCBS recommends that investors consider allocating 20-30% of their account to stocks with stronger recovery momentum than the overall market, while maintaining a cautious approach and avoiding leverage.

VCBS recommends that investors maintain a cautious attitude and refrain from prematurely buying at the bottom. The short-lived bounces in the VN-Index during the trading session are not enough to confirm that the market has found its equilibrium point in the short term.

Agribank Securities (Agriseco) : On the technical chart, the VN-Index formed a candlestick pattern similar to a Bullish Harami, indicating that the downtrend is weakening as the index retreats to the support zone of 1,010-1,020 points. The RSI indicator is in the oversold zone, also supporting the possibility of a technical rebound. However, it should be noted that liquidity has not yet improved and remains lower than during the accumulation phase at the beginning of the year.

Furthermore, the market may still be creating a bull trap similar to the 1,080 point level seen in late October. Agriseco recommends that investors cautiously observe the market further and limit disbursements until a clear bottom is formed or the market establishes a stable price level.

Stock market news brief

- Vietnam's PMI for October 2023 decreased slightly to 49.6 points. The latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) report from S&P Global indicates that Vietnam's manufacturing sector remained below 50 points in October. This result shows a decline in the health of the manufacturing sector for the second consecutive month.

- Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV): Lending interest rates are lower than before the Covid-19 pandemic. According to SBV Governor Nguyen Thi Hong, although global interest rates have risen sharply, the SBV has boldly adjusted its policy interest rate downwards four times to guide a reduction of approximately 2% in interest rates for new loans compared to the end of 2022.

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