Exports, including textiles and garments, will remain one of the key drivers of Vietnam's economic growth in 2026 - Photo: QUANG DINH
"Vietnam is clearly one of the most outstanding countries. Even within ASEAN, everyone is trying to figure out what the secret to its success is," Marcus Tantau, a business strategy consultant at Templeton Research, told The Diplomat magazine about the ASEAN economic outlook for 2026.
The growing role in the supply chain.
According to international media, Vietnam is achieving top growth in the region, with GDP growth in 2025 exceeding 8%, among the highest in the world . Exports continue to be a key driver: projected to increase by 17% in 2025 compared to 2024 (according to the General Statistics Office), with the US maintaining its position as the largest export market.
Notably, the electronics, computers, and components group achieved export turnover of over $107 billion, an increase of 48.4%, far surpassing many traditional items. With this structure, forecasts suggest that exports in 2026 still have room for growth thanks to global demand for technology, electronics, and AI.
Most recently, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) projected Vietnam's GDP growth to reach 7.6% in 2026, leading the ASEAN+3 region (comprising 10 Southeast Asian countries along with China, Japan, and South Korea).
According to AMRO, this outlook reflects Vietnam's growing role in regional supply chains, particularly in manufactured goods and high-tech products, coupled with strong domestic demand and a relatively stable macroeconomic environment.
Speaking to Tuoi Tre newspaper, Edward Lee, Head of ASEAN and South Asia Research at Standard Chartered Bank, said that Vietnam is the second most open economy in ASEAN, with approximately 50% of its GDP coming from external demand.
Vietnam is also a prominent destination for FDI, with registered capital exceeding US$38 billion in 2025, the highest implemented capital in five years. "Unlike Indonesia or India, where FDI is mainly focused on the domestic market, FDI in Vietnam is closely tied to exports," Mr. Lee said.
Meanwhile, Professor David Dapice (formerly teaching at Tufts University, USA) suggests that net export growth this year may slow down. The capacity of the FDI sector in Vietnam is only increasing moderately, and demand in major economies is likely to recover slowly.
"Real retail sales and services are growing at around 6% per year. Most GDP growth forecasts are in the range of 6.5-7.5%, which is achievable," Professor Dapice predicted regarding Vietnam's economic growth.
IFC will be a magnet for new capital flows.
Vietnam's increased public investment in infrastructure – from metros and railways to airports – is being assessed by international observers as a crucial internal resource for growth in the coming period.
According to Edward Lee, infrastructure investment will enhance Vietnam's medium-term economic capacity while also acting as a "buffer" in the short term against external shocks. "Assuming global demand declines for any reason, there is still domestic growth potential," he said.
Many important transportation infrastructure projects have also been opened up to attract private sector participation. Therefore, public investment not only yields results in terms of infrastructure serving the economy, but also creates opportunities for domestic businesses to participate in large-scale projects, accumulating capacity and experience.
While FDI remains the primary driver of exports and many large Vietnamese businesses are still focused on non-manufacturing sectors, Professor Dapice suggests that, to transform the growth model, it is crucial for Vietnam to enhance the global competitiveness of its businesses.
"If this can be achieved, investment capital will follow. If domestic businesses are profitable and have transparent accounting systems to demonstrate this, money will flow in," Professor Dapice said, adding that the Ho Chi Minh City International Finance Centre is expected to be a magnet for new capital flows.
Meanwhile, Rich McClellan, CEO of the Vietnam International Finance Centre (VIFC - HCMC), stated that small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and start-ups need to improve corporate governance, financial reporting quality, and compliance levels.
"IFC will not automatically 'transfer' businesses to participate, but those who prepare early will be in the most advantageous position as the platform matures," McClellan stated.
IFC will indirectly drive growth.
According to Rich McClellan, CEO of VIFC - HCMC, an international financial center aims not only to attract capital flows but also represents an upgrade in the operational standards of the economy.
Before significant capital flows actually materialize, the development of VIFC needs to focus on perfecting a clear legal framework, ensuring consistency in supervision, enhancing transparency, and aligning with international best practices. These factors will contribute to strengthening market confidence.
"IFC will indirectly drive growth – through improving capital allocation mechanisms, enhancing risk valuation quality, and standardizing institutional operations," said Rich McClellan, adding that investor confidence will depend on the speed and quality of institution building, through the creditworthiness assessment phase of IFC Vietnam.
"The market will closely monitor whether regulatory and supervisory bodies are operating effectively, whether the legal framework is clear, whether the licensing process is stable and predictable, and whether procedures are applied consistently and transparently," this expert analyzed.
Source: https://tuoitre.vn/them-noi-luc-cho-nen-kinh-te-20260227085039172.htm
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