The market's resilience this time has a specific explanation. As oil prices soared, China cut imports. That decision acted as a pressure relief valve for the entire system. Chinese refineries scaled back production or shifted to tapping domestic reserves, and the resulting import gap made it easier for other Asian countries to access supplies, thereby easing pressure on global prices. Traders estimate that China cut oil imports by about 5 million barrels per day last May, equivalent to nearly half of the global supply shortfall caused by the closure of the strait.
What is currently holding up the market is not new supply or a resolved conflict, but an unprecedented drain on reserves and emergency reserves. In the US, weekly data shows a continuous decline. In Europe, the situation is even more murky due to the lack of publicly available information. The US is exporting fuel and crude oil to Europe and Asia at record levels, while domestic reserves have fallen to their lowest levels in two decades.
In March 2026, 32 members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) – a club of major oil-consuming nations – committed to releasing 400 million barrels from state reserves, the largest coordinated withdrawal in IEA history. Nearly half of that has already been released to the market, at a record rate of 2.5–3 million barrels per day. But the rate of release could slow sharply in the coming weeks. This will help determine whether the oil market can remain calm this summer.
The current resilience of the oil market is due to "borrowing," not internal strength, as economies consume future resources to cope with current pressures. Industry experts are not hiding their concerns. Neil Chapman, Vice President at ExxonMobil, warned that inventory levels are approaching "unprecedented" thresholds, and that once they reach them, prices will surge. This is an insider's warning, reflecting a reality that market data is confirming daily.
The market is also facing another structural risk: China's import restraint – a factor that is temporarily keeping the balance from tipping but could reverse at any time. If China resumes buying oil while the Strait of Hormuz remains closed and global summer demand is at its peak, available supply will tighten very quickly. That scenario is not hypothetical, but a predictable consequence of a system operating based on reserves.
The real question isn't whether pressure will increase, but how long the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed. "If it's just two more weeks, we might escape the worst-case scenario – a global recession. If it's three months, I doubt we can escape it." That's the assessment of Frédéric Lasserre, Head of Market Analysis at Gunvor. The gap between escaping and a widespread recession is only weeks – a margin too thin to be reassuring.
The oil market hasn't collapsed, but it's standing on a foundation that even those involved acknowledge is unsustainable. For developing economies, including those in Asia, this is the time to closely monitor developments, diversify supply sources, and strengthen strategic reserves, rather than betting on a stability that is merely an orderly delay of an ongoing crisis.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/kinh-te/thi-truong-dau-mo-dang-di-vay-thoi-gian-20260613093820892.htm
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